旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利周四表示，美联储可能需要进一步加息以应对居高不下的通胀，但并未暗示应当急于行动。
The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to deal with elevated inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday, without suggesting it should be in a hurry about it.
“我倾向于认为还需要进一步收紧政策，”戴利在斯坦福经济政策研究所表示，并补充说，价格压力正从能源和商品蔓延至服务业，而服务业通胀可能非常顽固。
"My bias is that further tightening will be needed," Daly said at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, adding price pressures are spreading beyond energy and goods and into services, where inflation can be very sticky.
“我们拥有稳定的劳动力市场、良好的增长，但目前肯定存在通胀问题。”在能源价格近期回落拉低了整体通胀后，许多经济学家和美联储决策者原本预期潜在通胀会降温，但事实并非如此。
"We have a labor market that's stable, growth that's good, but we definitely have an inflation problem right now." Underlying inflation has not cooled as many economists and Fed policymakers had expected would happen after a recent easing in energy prices brought down headline inflation.
劳工统计局本周早些时候发布的报告显示，剔除能源和食品价格的核心消费者价格指数在10月连续第三个月环比上涨0.3%，按此节奏折算的年化涨幅在3.6%左右或更高。
The core consumer price index, which excludes energy and food prices, rose 0.3% for the third straight month in October, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report earlier this week showed, on pace for an annualized gain of around 3.6% or more.
美联储以个人消费支出价格指数12个月变化率为衡量标准，将通胀目标定为2%。经济学家估计，10月核心PCE——即总PCE走向的一个风向标——同比上涨约3.3%。
The Fed targets 2% inflation as measured by the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures price index. Economists estimate core PCE -- which is a gauge of where total PCE is heading -- rose around 3.3% in October from a year earlier.
这些高企的数据促使多位美联储决策者发出信号，支持在即将于12月8日至9日召开的议息会议上开始加大加息力度或加快加息步伐。戴利周四并未加入这一行列。
Those hot numbers have prompted a number of Fed policymakers to signal support for bigger, or faster, rate hikes beginning with the upcoming December 8-9 policy-setting meeting. Daly did not join that group on Thursday.
“债券收益率上升‘非常受欢迎’，”她说，更紧缩的金融条件“给了我们多一点时间，做出真正经过深思熟虑的决定。”
Rising bond yields "are most welcome," she said, and tighter financial conditions "gives us a little more time to make really calibrated decisions."
“我认为市场正在帮助确保我们将通胀降下来——但我们的工作还没有完成，”戴利说。“这就是为什么我说我的倾向是进一步收紧，但具体收紧多少、具体何时收紧……我们在未来许多个季度里将获得更多、更多的数据和信息。”在该活动中，戴利勾勒了她的观点：虽然人工智能目前对通胀或劳动力市场没有超常规的影响，但在未来几年很可能会有，特别是如果它如她预期那样推高生产率增长的话。
"I think the markets are assisting in making sure that we're bringing inflation down -- but our job is not done," Daly said. "That's why I have said that my bias is to have additional tightening, but exactly how much and exactly when ... we have many more pieces of data and information over many, many quarters." At the event, Daly sketched out her view that while AI is not having an outsized impact on inflation or on the labor market now, it well could have in the next few years, particularly if it pushes up productivity growth as she expects it will.
“仅仅因为我们现在面临相当严重的通胀问题，并不意味着我们应该完全忽视生产率增长的可能性，或忽视这可能如何起到抑制通胀的作用，”戴利说。
"Just because we have quite an inflation problem now, it doesn't mean that we should completely ignore the possibilities of productivity growth or how that could be disinflationary," Daly said.
戴利表示，人工智能股票估值近期的波动，也不代表对该技术缺乏热情，或认为它不会具有变革性，她指出资金正涌入数据中心等与人工智能相关的资本项目。
Recent volatility in AI stock valuations also does not signal a lack of enthusiasm about the technology or a belief that it will not be transformative, Daly said, noting the rush of investment into AI-related capital projects like data centers.
“我认为你可以降低增长速度，同时仍拥有一个良性增长的经济、一个稳定的劳动力市场和更低的通胀，”她说。
"I think you can slow the growth rate and still have a good economy growing and a stable labor market and a lower inflation," she said.