唐纳德·特朗普提出了一项针对其对伊朗战争的新策略：将冲突置于悬而未决的状态并抽身离开。
Donald Trump has floated a new strategy for his war against Iran: leave the conflict in limbo and walk away.
周四，特朗普表示，他已告知副总统JD·万斯不要与伊朗谈判，并暗示冲突可能在没有达成协议、对德黑兰核武器项目实施商定限制的情况下结束——此前他曾反复强调，这正是美以开始轰炸伊朗的原因。
On Thursday, Trump said he told Vice President JD Vance not to negotiate with Iran and suggested the conflict could end without a deal to impose agreed-upon limits on Tehran’s nuclear weapons program — after repeatedly stressing that was why the US and Israel began bombing Iran in the first place.
“我们不需要与伊朗达成协议，”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。“那些日子早已一去不复返。”这是特朗普又一次突然的大转弯，此前他还曾威胁如果无法达成协议将发动新的打击。但上周中期选举中共和党的广泛失利，凸显了这场冲突在普通美国人中有多么不得人心。
“We don’t need a deal with Iran,” Trump wrote on social media. “Those days have long since passed.”It was another abrupt U-turn for Trump, who had also threatened to launch new strikes if no deal was reached. But widespread Republican losses in last week’s midterm elections underscored how unpopular the conflict was with regular Americans.
这迫使特朗普陷入了一个尴尬的两难境地：要么再次升级打击，要么暂停进一步攻击，加大对伊朗的经济施压，以期在未来换取让步。现在，他正在权衡第三种做法——淡化对全面外交解决方案的期望，转而接受僵局。
That’s forced Trump into an uncomfortable position between two choices: either ramp up strikes again or hold off on more attacks and double down on an economic squeeze of Iran in the hopes of future concessions. Now he’s weighing a third approach — downplaying hopes of a comprehensive diplomatic solution and instead accepting a stalemate.
“这反映出政府已让自己陷入无良策可选的境地——没有不冒升级风险的可行军事路径，也没有达成好协议的真实前景，”内特·斯旺森说，他是前美国官员，曾就伊朗核协议向奥巴马政府提供建议，也曾就所谓的“极限施压”战略向第一届特朗普政府提供建议。
“It’s a reflection that the administration has left itself with no good options — no viable military path without courting escalation, no real prospect for a good deal,” said Nate Swanson, a former US official who advised the Obama administration on its Iran nuclear deal and the first Trump administration on its so-called maximum pressure strategy.
特朗普发表上述言论后，油价稳步上涨，言论暗示波斯湾的地缘政治紧张局势可能持续。周四，布伦特原油结算价上涨3.3%，报每桶约96美元。
Oil prices rose steadily after Trump’s comments, which suggested geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf were likely to continue. Brent crude settled 3.3% higher on Thursday at around $96 a barrel.
据一位熟悉海湾国家首都思路的人士透露，特朗普决定放弃其战争目标、并可能在没有核协议的情况下抽身离开，冒着让波斯湾合作伙伴在没有明确稳定路径的情况下，独自应对一个更加大胆的伊朗的风险。
Trump’s decision to abandon his war goals and potentially walk away without a nuclear deal risks leaving Persian Gulf partners to deal with an emboldened Iran without a clear path to stability, according to a person familiar with the thinking in Gulf capitals.
海湾阿拉伯国家曾协助在华盛顿与德黑兰之间斡旋，并推动特朗普避免发动新的打击，据该人士透露，这些国家可能会尝试通过将伊朗纳入某种地区协议来平息冲突。该人士要求不具名，因为未获授权公开发言。
Gulf Arab countries, some of which have helped mediate between Washington and Tehran and pushed Trump to avoid new strikes, may try to wind down the conflict by bringing Iran into some kind of regional agreement, the person said, asking not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.
但该人士补充说，特朗普也可能选择破坏阿拉伯联盟或海湾合作委员会与伊朗达成的任何最终协议。
But Trump could also choose to scuttle any eventual deal that the Arab League or Gulf Cooperation Council negotiates with Iran, the person added.
一名白宫官员在要求匿名的情况下辩称，由于海上封锁、不断扩大的制裁行动以及一项名为“铁门行动”的新遏制行动（聚焦伊朗的陆地边境和里海海岸线）给伊朗带来的压力日益增大，美国仍处于强势地位。该官员重申，特朗普政府将确保伊朗永远无法获得核武器。
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, argued that the US remains in a strong position because of the growing pressure on Iran from the naval blockade, a widening sanctions push and a new containment campaign — called Operation Iron Gate — focused on Iran’s land borders and Caspian Sea shoreline. The official reiterated that the Trump administration will ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.
这种做法本身也存在不确定性。前美国官员等人认为，美国无法永远对伊朗保持压力，而德黑兰也有自己的选择，包括通过袭击美国在该地区的基地或其盟友来进行军事升级。
That approach comes with uncertainties of its own. Former US officials and others argue that the US can’t maintain pressure on Iran forever and that Tehran also has options of its own, including military escalation with attacks on US bases or its allies in the region.
放弃达成有意义核协议的努力，也可能削弱特朗普为他坚称紧迫的战争所寻找的理由。
Abandoning efforts to nail down a meaningful nuclear deal could also undermine Trump’s justification for a war he insisted was urgent.
国际危机组织伊朗问题专家阿里·瓦伊兹表示：“华盛顿可以选择维持现状，但无法强迫德黑兰无限期地接受现状——在某个时刻，伊朗将试图打破封锁。”
“Washington can choose to preserve the status quo, but it cannot compel Tehran to live with it indefinitely — at some point, Iran will try to break the blockade,” said Iran expert Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.
美国官员“押注施压最终将迫使伊朗屈服或政权垮台，从而获得这个始终难以实现的奖赏”，瓦伊兹说。“危险在于，这可能先引发另一场战争。”
US officials are “betting that pressure will finally deliver the ever-elusive prize of Iranian capitulation or regime collapse,” Vaez said. “The danger is that it delivers another war first.”
在公开言论中，特朗普反复淡化冲突的范围、持续时间和强度。他最近更淡化冲突本身的存在，称冲突“实际上已经结束”，且“我们赢了。”
In public comments, Trump has repeatedly minimized the scope, duration and intensity of the conflict. He’s recently downplayed the idea that there was much of a conflict at all, saying it was “effectively over” and that “we won.”
他还反复强调没有活跃的敌对行动，在大选前表示，“这算不上什么战争”，因为“已经有几个月没有交火了。”中东发生的事件表明情况并非如此。
He’s also repeatedly stressed the lack of active hostilities, saying before the election that “this is not much of a war” because there “hasn’t been shooting for months.”Events in the Middle East suggest otherwise.
周四，伊朗军方称，霍尔木兹海峡附近两艘“不合规”油轮触雷起火。据风险咨询公司Verisk Maplecroft的一份报告，上个月发生了36起针对商船的经确认袭击，为战争开始以来的最高单月总数。该报告预测，伊朗对船只的骚扰将持续到2027年。
On Thursday, Iran’s military said two “non-compliant” oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz hit mines and caught fire. Last month, there were 36 confirmed attacks on commercial ships, the highest monthly total since the war began, according to a report from risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. It forecast that Iran’s harassment of ships would persist into 2027.
与此同时，领导美国对伊朗制裁行动的财政部长斯科特·贝森特因面临伊朗威胁，被转移至安全的军方住所。大约还有半打特朗普政府高级官员也被转移。
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has led the US sanctions effort against Tehran, was relocated to secure military housing amid threats from Iran. Roughly a half-dozen other senior Trump administration officials have also been relocated.
“总统给达成协议的努力踩刹车是对的，”保卫民主基金会伊朗项目高级主任贝纳姆·本·塔莱布鲁说。“但现在没有针对伊朗的管理办法。”“该政权意图报复，”他说。
“The president is right to pump the brakes on the quest for a deal,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “But there is no management approach with Iran now.”“The regime is intent on revenge,” he said.