
进步派正准备明年与唐纳德·特朗普总统展开一场定义党派路线的斗争,他们打算采用共和党去年用来绕过阻挠议事、强行推动减税法案通过国会的同一种强硬手段。
Progressives are spoiling for a party-defining fight next year with President Donald Trump, using the same hardball tactic Republicans used last year to skirt the filibuster and muscle tax cuts through Congress.
随着他们准备明年掌控众议院和参议院,左翼的一些议员正在推动同僚,利用预算协调程序向特朗普送交一揽子塞满民主党优先事项的全面立法。他们提出这个想法,明知它没有成为法律的可能,但这并非目的。目的在于与总统挑起一场声势浩大的高调对决,并在2028年总统大选前将聚光灯聚焦到民主党纲领上。
As they prepare to take control of the House and Senate next year, some lawmakers on the left are pushing their colleagues to send Trump sweeping legislation chock full of Democratic priorities by way of the budget reconciliation process. They're floating the idea even though they know there's no chance it will become law, but that's not the point. Rather, the purpose is to pick a big, showy fight with the president, and put a spotlight on the Democratic platform ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
“重要的是我们要向美国民众展示我们代表什么,为美国民众想要的议程而战,”参议员伯尼·桑德斯(I-佛蒙特州)表示,他计划在新一届国会担任参议院健康、教育、劳工和养老金委员会主席。
“It’s important that we show the American people what we stand for, that we fight for an agenda that the American people want,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who plans to chair the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee in the new Congress.
讨论仍处于非常早期阶段,因为议员们目前专注于在年底前收尾立法事务——但并非所有人都对这个想法情有独钟。
Discussions are still very early, as lawmakers focus on tying-up legislative business before the end of the year — but not everyone is enamored with the idea.
“我对发表政治声明不感兴趣,”众议员唐·拜尔(D-弗吉尼亚州)表示,他是众议院筹款委员会的资深成员,他补充说民主党应该寻找现在就能立法的途径。“我想有所作为——我想解决问题。”他还表示,民主党需要能够指向具体的成就,并警告追求协调法案可能会削弱他们在中期选举中的胜利成果。
“I’m not interested in making political statements,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee, who added that Democrats should be looking for ways to make law now. “I want to make a difference — I want to solve problems." He also said Democrats need to be able to point to concrete achievements, and warned pursuing a reconciliation deal could undercut their midterm wins.
“我们刚刚取得了这场大胜,我不想转过身又因为我们向另一方向摆动太远而把所有席位都送回去,”拜尔说。
"We had this big victory, and I don’t want to turn around and give all the seats right back because we swing too far the other way," Beyer said.
和解议题引发了一系列其他问题,关乎民主党计划如何应对未来两年。他们面临压力,必须兑现竞选承诺,回应选民对可负担性的担忧。但具体将包含哪些内容、如何推进,尚待确定。其中包括一个重大问题:他们是否应试图寻找与特朗普妥协的领域,还是说应跳过他,专注于为党在2028年大选中的定位做准备。
The reconciliation issue raises a host of other questions about how Democrats plan to approach the next two years. They're under pressure to make good on campaign promises to address voters’ concerns about affordability. But what exactly that will entail, and how to go about it, is to be determined. Included in that are big questions about whether they should try to find areas of compromise with Trump, or if they should look past him and focus on positioning the party for 2028.
“我们需要就这些问题进行一次有意义的党团讨论,”参议员克里斯·范霍伦(民主党-马里兰州)表示。他是2028年总统大选的潜在竞争者,也一直在鼓励同僚“大干一场” —— 包括推动一项和解法案。
“We need to have a meaningful caucus discussion on these things,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), a potential 2028 presidential contender who's also been encouraging his colleagues to go big — including with a reconciliation bill.
本周在一次闭门会议上,参议院民主党领袖、纽约州的查克·舒默与同僚讨论了明年可能的议程,其中包括推进一项潜在的和解措施。
In a closed-door meeting this week, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York and colleagues discussed their potential agenda for next year, which included advancing a possible reconciliation measure.
虽然和解之争可能将公众注意力集中到民主党的优先事项上,但也会有负面影响。这可能引发一场规模大、令人尴尬的内部斗争,争论法案应包含哪些内容。解决可负担性问题可涵盖从降低医疗成本、解决托儿问题到能源价格、住房和税收等各个方面。确定优先顺序将很困难,并可能激怒那些提案未被采纳的议员 —— 包括掌握实权的委员会主席。
While a reconciliation fight could focus public attention on Democrats’ priorities, there would be downsides. It could spark a big, embarrassing internal fight over what ought to go into a bill. Tackling affordability could cover anything from lowering health care costs to addressing child care to energy prices to housing to taxes. Choosing priorities would be difficult, and risk riling up lawmakers — including powerful committee chairs — whose ideas are left out.
“这是一个挑战,”即将出任众议院筹款委员会主席的马萨诸塞州议员理查德·尼尔表示。
“It’s a challenge,” said incoming House Ways and Means Committee Chair Richard Neal of Massachusetts.
议员们可以将大量想法塞进一项庞大的法案,类似于拜登政府时期通过的立法,但这会在政府年度赤字接近2万亿美元之际推高成本。这会招致党内财政鹰派的反感,并给共和党提供一个绝佳的攻击靶子。
Members could pack a lot of ideas into one giant bill, similar to the legislation they passed during the Biden administration, though that would send the cost skyward at a time when the government is running annual deficits of nearly $2 trillion. That would antagonize the party’s fiscal hawks and give Republicans a fat target to criticize.
民主党人可以尝试为其筹资——许多新当选议员竞选时主张对超级富豪增税——但并非所有立法者都热衷于支持那些根本没有成为法律可能的增税方案。
Democrats could try to pay for it — many of their incoming members campaigned on raising taxes on the ultra-wealthy — but not all lawmakers are enthused about supporting tax hikes that stand no chance of becoming law.
民主党人还有其他选择,比如通过一系列较小、以传递信息为主的法案,而不是推动一个大型综合法案。尼尔认为,民主党人最初应聚焦于可能获得共和党人支持的具体议题,例如恢复已失效的“奥巴马医改”健康保险补贴、撤销对医院资金的削减以及废除特朗普的关税。他认为,民主党人甚至可能凑齐足以推翻总统否决的多数票,废除部分进口关税。“我们能做的事情很多,但我也想马上拿出一些胜利,”他说。
Democrats have other options, like passing a series of smaller, messaging-oriented bills rather than moving one big package. Neal thinks Democrats should initially focus on discrete issues that might have Republican support, like reviving lapsed Obamacare health insurance subsidies, rescinding hospital-funding cuts and repealing Trump's tariffs. He thinks Democrats may even be able to produce veto-proof majorities in favor of killing some of the president's import duties. “There’s a lot of things that we can do, but I also want to put some victories up on the wall right away,” he said.
尼尔表示,和解法案以后随时可以推出:“如果我们能推出一个我认为能解决选民在本轮选举周期中表达的许多关切的大法案,那我们就应该这么做。”但一些立法者不一定想明年花时间与白宫对峙。而且拼凑一个和解法案是一项浩大的工程,伴随一长串繁琐的规则和要求,势必会占用立法者大量精力。
A reconciliation package could always come later, Neal said: “If we can do a big one that I think addresses many of the concerns that voters expressed in this cycle, then we should do it.”But some lawmakers don’t necessarily want to spend next year in a standoff with the White House. And putting together a reconciliation package is a huge undertaking, one that comes with a long list of persnickety rules and requirements that would promise to consume much of lawmakers’ bandwidth.
拜尔表示,他想专注于通过法律,即使达成协议很难。他看到在遏制特朗普的移民执法手段方面存在潜在协议空间,包括政府对移民与海关执法局(ICE)的使用以及其施加的各种签证限制,以及废除关税。
Beyer said he wants to focus on passing laws, even if agreements are difficult to come by. He sees room for potential agreements on reining in Trump's immigration enforcement tactics, including the administration's use of ICE and various restrictions it’s put on visas, and repealing tariffs.
“传递信息的法案也有其作用,但如果能真正做成点事那就更好了,”拜耶说。“存在一些中间立场,很可能会获得总统签署。”另一位潜在总统竞选人、参议员科里·布克(民主党-新泽西州)表示,现在谈论和解程序等立法策略“为时过早”,尤其是明年参议院将至少迎来十几位尚未就职的新同事。但布克说,民主党应聚焦具有两党吸引力的议题。
“Message bills have a role to play but it’s even better if you can actually do something,” said Beyer. “There are middle grounds that may well be signable by the president.”Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), another potential presidential contender, said it’s “premature” to talk about legislative strategy like reconciliation, especially when Democrats will have at least a dozen new colleagues next year in the Senate who haven’t yet taken office. But Booker said Democrats should focus on issues with bipartisan appeal.
“美国民众表明他们关心的问题没有党派之分,从禁止股票交易到恢复医疗补助削减——这些都获得了两党压倒性支持,”他说。“我不打算讨论战术,但国家已经证明了左右翼合作的可能性,民众只想要让生活变得更好的事情。”理清这些分歧需要时间,许多议员表示,深入的对话尚未开始。
“The American people have shown the issues they care about are not partisan, from banning stock trading to restoring Medicaid cuts — those are overwhelmingly supported by both sides of the aisle,” he said. “I’m not going to discuss tactics, but the country has really belied left-right partnership and just want things to make their lives better.”Sorting out those differences will take time, and many lawmakers said conversations have not yet begun in earnest.
“我们将作为党团经历一个过程,在我们内部达成共识,包括众议院,”夏威夷州参议员布赖恩·沙茨说,他有望成为参议院民主党二号人物。他拒绝透露自己倾向于何种方案。
“We’re going to go through a process as a caucus to come to a consensus amongst ourselves, including the House,” said Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, in line to become the chamber’s No. 2 Democrat. He declined to say what approach he prefers.