众议院民主党人正大步迈向议长“加冕”，而参议院民主党人则迎来了30多年来首次竞争激烈的领袖竞选。
As House Democrats barrel toward a speakership coronation Senate Dems are getting their first contested race for leader in over 30 years.
为何重要：民主党人多年来一直在党的发展方向问题上内耗——却从未迫使他们的领袖经历一场正面交锋的投票。
Why it matters: Democrats have spent years tearing themselves apart over the party's direction — without forcing their leaders to win a head-to-head vote.
- 参议院民主党人今年将迎来自1994年汤姆·达施勒（Tom Daschle）对阵克里斯·多德（Chris Dodd）以来的首次此类较量——由克里斯·范霍伦（Chris Van Hollen，民主党-马里兰州）向查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer，民主党-纽约州）发起挑战。
• Senate Democrats will get that fight this year for the first time since Tom Daschle vs. Chris Dodd in 1994 — courtesy of Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) challenging Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
- 但无人挑战哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries，民主党-纽约州）竞选议长。上一次竞争激烈的众议院民主党领袖竞选要追溯到2016年，当时蒂姆·瑞安（Tim Ryan）未能击败南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）赢得少数党领袖职位。
• But no one's challenging Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) for speaker. The last contested Democratic House leader race was in 2016, when Tim Ryan failed to beat Nancy Pelosi for minority leader. Between the lines:
深层背景：众议院民主党人正遭到大量电话和邮件轰炸，敦促他们反对杰弗里斯，但最常被提及的两位替代人选——杰米·拉斯金（Jamie Raskin，民主党-马里兰州）和阿亚娜·普雷斯利（Ayanna Pressley，民主党-马萨诸塞州）——似乎都不想要这份工作。
House Democrats are being bombarded with calls and emails urging them to oppose Jeffries, but the two most frequently floated alternatives — Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) — don't appear to want the job.
- 拉斯金告诉Axios，担任司法委员会主席是他的“梦想工作”，他“绝对……不是以任何方式竞选议长的候选人”。
• Raskin told Axios that chairing the Judiciary Committee is his "dream job" and that he's "absolutely ... not a candidate for speaker in any way."
- “我支持哈基姆，并将投票给哈基姆，”拉斯金补充道。
• "I am supporting Hakeem and voting for Hakeem," Raskin added.
多位众议院民主党人告诉Axios，普雷斯利已私下告诉同僚她没有兴趣。
Pressley has privately told colleagues she isn't interested, multiple House Democrats told Axios.
- “普雷斯利众议员正与杰弗里斯领袖积极对话，探讨如何利用这一多数党地位、把握当下时机、为民众交付成果，”发言人里卡多·桑切斯（Ricardo Sanchez）在给Axios的声明中说。
• "Congresswoman Pressley is in active conversations with Leader Jeffries about how to leverage this majority, meet the moment and deliver for the people," spokesperson Ricardo Sanchez said in a statement to Axios.
- “她知晓并感激来自她选区和全国各地的支持浪潮，大家纷纷推崇她的领导力。”
• "She is aware of and appreciates the groundswell of support from people in her district and across the country lifting up her leadership."
大局观：自上一次竞争激烈的民主党领袖选举以来，共和党经历了“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的崛起、前参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（Mitch McConnell）的权势陨落，以及众议院共和党领袖的频繁更迭。
The big picture: Since the last contested Democratic leadership election, Republicans have endured the rise of MAGA, former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell's fall from power and a revolving door of House GOP leaders.
- 2018年，凯文·麦卡锡（Kevin McCarthy）以159票对43票大胜吉姆·乔丹（Jim Jordan），成为众议院少数党领袖。
• In 2018, Kevin McCarthy drubbed Jim Jordan 159–43 to become House minority leader.
- 2022年，麦康奈尔不得不击败里克·斯科特，因为这位佛罗里达州共和党人向他发起了参议院共和党领袖职位的挑战。
• In 2022, McConnell had to beat Rick Scott after the Florida Republican challenged him for Senate GOP leader.
- 2023年，麦卡锡需要经过15轮投票才当选议长，并在同年晚些时候被罢免。共和党人在史蒂夫·斯卡利斯和吉姆·乔丹的提名上接连碰壁，最终才敲定迈克·约翰逊。
• In 2023, McCarthy needed 15 ballots to become speaker and was ousted later that year. Republicans burned through nominations on Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan before settling on Mike Johnson.
- 2024年，约翰·图恩不得不击败两名挑战者——里克·斯科特和约翰·科宁——才能接替麦康奈尔出任参议院共和党领袖。
• In 2024, John Thune had to beat two challengers — Rick Scott and John Cornyn — to succeed McConnell as Senate GOP leader.
- 2026年，吉姆·乔丹……嗯，你们知道发生了什么。就是周二那天。
• In 2026, Jim Jordan ... well, you know what happened. It was Tuesday. The intrigue:
内情：范霍伦周五在丹佛对记者表示，他已停止“追求”2028年总统竞选，因为“这些多数席位的规模和幅度，为美国参议院提供了一个回应美国民众呼声的机会。” • 截至目前，在12月1日的秘密投票前，范霍伦已获得5张公开票（含他自己）；舒默获得14张。获胜者需要29票。
Van Hollen told reporters in Denver on Friday he's stopped "pursuing" a 2028 presidential bid because the "size and scale of these majorities provides an opportunity for the United States Senate to answer the call with the American people." • Van Hollen is up to five public votes (himself included) ahead of the Dec. 1 secret ballot. Schumer's at 14. The winner will need 29.
而在众议院方面，目前真正的问题似乎在于，是否会有任何众议院民主党人在1月3日的众议院全院投票中反对杰弗里斯。
Over in the House, the real question at this point feels like whether any House Democrats will oppose Jeffries on the House floor on Jan. 3.
- 自2022年成为领袖以来，杰弗里斯一直享有党团的一致支持，他昨天对记者表示，“对我们处于积极上升轨道充满信心”，但“绝不掉以轻心”。
• Jeffries has enjoyed unanimous support from his caucus since becoming leader in 2022 and is "confident that we're on a positive trajectory" but takes "nothing for granted," he told reporters yesterday.
核心看点：难得的是，这一次制造国会山所有戏剧性的，是参议院，而非众议院。
The bottom line: For once it's the Senate, not the House, providing all the drama on Capitol Hill.