民主党在美国中期选举中取得压倒性胜利，引发了党内要求新方向的呼声，与此同时，既定的国会领导层正准备于1月掌权。
Democrats' sweeping victory in the US midterm elections has triggered demands for a new direction within the party, even as its established congressional leadership prepares to take power in January.
众议院和参议院的民主党人面临一个重大决定：由谁来带领他们掌控第120届国会，并寻求挑战唐纳德·特朗普总统的议程？
Democrats in the House and Senate have a big decision to make: Who will lead them as they take control of the 120th Congress and seek to challenge President Donald Trump's agenda?
传统观点认为，众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯和参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默（均为纽约州民主党人）将分别领导各自的议院。但这两人面临来自进步派活动人士和部分议员的抵制，后者要求实现代际更替，并对特朗普采取更强硬的立场。
Conventional wisdom says that Minority Leaders Hakeem Jeffries in the House and Chuck Schumer in the Senate, both Democrats of New York, will lead their respective chambers. But the pair face resistance from progressive activists and some lawmakers demanding generational change and a stronger stance against Trump.
尽管民主党取得了决定性的选举胜利，首次在特朗普重返白宫后控制了两院，但这种反对声音依然出现了。
The opposition has emerged despite Democrats' decisive electoral gains, which handed them control of both chambers for the first time since Trump returned to the White House.
政治分析师、作家大卫·凯·约翰斯顿（David Cay Johnston，著有《免费午餐：最富有的美国人如何以政府开支为代价让自己致富（并让你买单）》）表示，虽然这波民主党浪潮包括与美国民主社会主义者（DSA）结盟的当选者，但进步派已发出信号，表明他们不一定会阻挠较为温和的领导人。
David Cay Johnston, a political analyst and author of Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense (and Stick You with the Bill), said that while the Democratic wave included election winners aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), progressives have signaled that they will not necessarily block more moderate leaders.
值得注意的是，纽约州进步派众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯表示，她将投票支持杰弗里斯担任众议院议长。
Notably, progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York has said she will vote for Jeffries as House speaker.
约翰斯顿告诉阿纳多卢通讯社：“我认为民主党此刻最不需要的就是一场领导权之争。他们需要着手解决美国出了什么问题的业务。”在参议院，舒默已在民主党党团领袖位置上坐了近十年。这位75岁的纽约人形象与一个日益受年轻选民和进步理念影响的政党形成鲜明对比，这为要求代际更替的批评者提供了弹药。
"I think the last thing the Democrats need at the moment is a fight over leadership," Johnston told Anadolu. "They need to get to the business of fixing what's gone wrong in America." In the Senate, Schumer has spent nearly a decade atop the Democratic caucus. The contrasting image of the 75-year-old New Yorker representing a party increasingly influenced by younger voters and progressive ideals has provided ammunition for critics demanding generational change.
周二，独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯宣布不会支持舒默连任民主党领袖，压力随之加剧。
The pressure intensified Tuesday when independent Sen. Bernie Sanders announced that he would not support Schumer's reelection as Democratic leader.
密歇根州参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金同样要求拿出具体的执政议程，然后才会承诺支持任何领导层候选人。
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin also demanded a concrete governing agenda before committing her support to any leadership candidate.
与此同时，马里兰州参议员克里斯·范霍伦正在考虑发起挑战，尽管他尚未正式参选。新当选的密歇根州参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德公开支持范霍伦，增加了来自该党新当选成员的压力。
Meanwhile, Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen is considering a challenge, although he has not formally entered the race. Incoming Michigan Sen. Abdul El-Sayed has publicly backed Van Hollen, adding to pressure from the party's newly elected members.
然而，舒默表示有信心留任，并继续获得资深民主党参议员的支持。
Schumer, however, has expressed confidence that he will retain his position and continues to enjoy support from established Democratic senators.
约翰斯顿解释说，舒默的吸引力在于他能在党内不同派系之间进行谈判。
Johnston explained Schumer's appeal as his ability to negotiate among different factions of the party.
他说：“他在党内担任少数党领袖的工作非常有效，作为多数党领袖大概也会如此。”他指出舒默有能力凑齐票数通过或阻挠立法。
Schumer, he said, "has been very effective internally in doing the job of a minority leader and probably will as a majority leader," pointing to his ability to secure votes to pass or block legislation.
虽然目前没有一位拥有明显多数支持的既定挑战者，但约翰斯顿认为，十一月民主党浪潮背后的年轻力量最终将迫使领导层更替。
And while there is no established challenger with demonstrated majority support, Johnston believes the young energy behind November's Democratic wave will eventually force a leadership change.
他说：“毫无疑问，舒默属于一代人，这代人需要由年轻人来接替。”
"Without a doubt, Schumer is part of a generation that needs to be succeeded by younger people," he said.
“问题在于，民主党参议员队伍中没有人浮现出来取代他。一旦我认为你看到支持力量凝聚在某个展现出能够接替舒默能力的人身上，那时你就会看到变革。”然而，舒默这种老派的妥协意愿可能使他更直接地处于弱势，特别是在进步派候选人反对共和党议程和美国对以色列支持的政治气候下。
"The issue is there's nobody who's emerged from the ranks of the Democratic senators to replace him. Once I think you see support coalesce around someone who demonstrates that they can succeed Schumer, then you'll see a change." However, Schumer's old-school willingness to compromise may make him more immediately vulnerable, especially in a political climate where progressive candidates have campaigned against the Republican agenda and US support for Israel.
民主党策略师詹姆斯·巴特勒表示，这种弱势在纽约州尤为明显，那里的美国民主社会主义者组织已发展出显著的政治影响力。
Democratic strategist James Butler said that vulnerability is particularly pronounced in New York, where the DSA has developed a significant political presence.
巴特勒认为，舒默的年龄、在以色列问题上的立场，以及民主社会主义者（DSA）在纽约日益增长的影响力，使他在党内面临反对时显得格外脆弱。他的预测比约翰斯顿更进一步，认为舒默可能会在即时的领导层竞争中落败。
Butler argued that Schumer's age, position on Israel and the growing influence of the DSA in New York have made him particularly vulnerable to opposition within his party. He went further than Johnston, predicting that Schumer could lose an immediate leadership contest.
“我坦率地认为，舒默……无法继续担任参议院多数党领袖，”他说，并指出杰弗里斯保住职位的机会更大。
"I frankly do not see Schumer surviving ... as Senate majority leader," he said, arguing that Jeffries stands a better chance of retaining his position.
巴特勒承认，舒默的体制内知识和经验帮助他应对了政治挑战。他还指出，民主党的胜利范围比单纯的进步运动更广。
Butler acknowledged that Schumer's institutional knowledge and experience have helped him navigate political challenges. He also argued that the Democratic victory was broader than the progressive movement alone.
“如果你看到周二晚上的情况，这不是DSA的浪潮。这是全国范围内更多温和派的浪潮，”他说。
"If you saw on Tuesday night, it wasn't this DSA wave. It was much more of this moderate wave across the country," he said.
作为外交政策分析师的巴特勒表示，关于以色列和美国与伊朗战争的分歧将影响领导层辩论。
Butler, also a foreign policy analyst, said disagreements over Israel and the US war with Iran will weigh on the leadership debate.
他认为，进步派越来越把这两位领导人视为民主党建制派的一部分，而寻求变革的选民希望摆脱这种建制派。
He argued that both leaders are increasingly viewed by progressives as part of the Democratic establishment, which voters seeking change want to move away from.
他指出，年轻选民越来越反对战争，并质疑候选人与美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）及其他亲以色列政治组织的关系。
Younger voters, he argued, increasingly oppose the war and question candidates' ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and other pro-Israel political organizations.
“针对查克·舒默和哈基姆·杰弗里斯有很多反弹声音，舒默是婴儿潮一代，杰弗里斯是X世代……尤其是来自党内进步派，”他说。
"There's a lot of pushback on Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, Schumer being a baby boomer and Hakeem Jeffries being a Gen X-er ... especially from the progressive wing of the party," he said.
辩论已延伸到政策诉求，进步团体呼吁结束伊朗战争、加强国会监督，并改变美国对以色列的军事支持。
The debate has already extended to policy demands, with progressive groups calling for an end to the Iran war, tougher congressional oversight and changes to US military support for Israel.
杰弗里斯周四似乎回应了其中一些担忧，呼吁在加沙和被占约旦河西岸实现“剧变”，并修改管辖军事援助的美以谅解备忘录。
Jeffries appeared to acknowledge some of those concerns Thursday, calling for "dramatic change" in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, as well as changes to the US-Israel memorandum of understanding governing military assistance.
他重申支持在以色列旁边建立独立巴勒斯坦国，并反对为伊朗战争提供额外资金。
He reiterated support for an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel and opposition to additional funding for the Iran war.
众议院少数党领袖杰弗里斯也面临着日益增长的外部反对声浪，反对其可能出任议长。一份呼吁另选议长的社交媒体请愿书已吸引数十万个签名，而国会议员办公室报告称收到大量反对其领导地位的来电。
House Minority Leader Jeffries is also facing growing outside opposition to his potential speakership. A social media petition calling for a different speaker has attracted hundreds of thousands of signatures, while congressional offices have reported receiving numerous calls opposing his leadership.
一些新当选的民主党人拒绝承诺投他一票，其中包括俄亥俄州当选众议员唐·伦纳德，他要求杰弗里斯在以色列问题上改变立场。
Some incoming Democrats have declined to commit their votes, including Ohio Rep.-elect Don Leonard, who has demanded changes to Jeffries' position on Israel.
尽管如此，杰弗里斯仍保有知名进步派人士的支持，包括奥卡西奥-科尔特斯、格雷格·卡萨尔、普拉米拉·贾亚帕尔和罗·康纳。目前无竞争对手公开宣布参选。
Nevertheless, Jeffries retains backing from prominent progressives, including Ocasio-Cortez, Greg Casar, Pramila Jayapal and Ro Khanna. No rival has publicly declared a candidacy.
巴特勒认为，杰弗里斯有望成为首位非裔众议院议长这一前景，可能会阻碍一些民主党人发起挑战。周四，杰弗里斯表示，他对下周的民主党党团领袖选举以及1月的全院议长选举充满信心。
Butler argued that the prospect of Jeffries becoming the first Black House speaker could discourage some Democrats from mounting a challenge against him. On Thursday, Jeffries said he was confident about next week's Democratic leadership vote and the full House speaker election in January.
但无论谁接任，都必须学会平衡党团内部的左翼和中间派系。约翰斯顿表示，这是成功立法的关键。
But whoever takes over must learn to balance the left and center factions of the caucus. That, Johnston said, is the trick to successful lawmaking.
他说：“我们看到佩洛西担任议长时，出色地将民主党内部的不同力量凝聚在一起。”
"We saw Nancy Pelosi, when she was Speaker, brilliantly bring together the different forces within the Democratic party," he said.
约翰斯顿认为，委员会主席人选的选择、议员间的合作以及推动有效立法的能力，最终将决定新多数党能否成功。
Johnston argued that the selection of committee chairs, cooperation among lawmakers and the ability to produce effective legislation will ultimately determine whether the new majority succeeds.
他还将变革诉求与美国年轻一代更广泛的经济挫败感联系起来，认为工资停滞、不平等以及历次金融危机的影响，动摇了人们对既有政治领导层的信心。
He also linked the demand for change to broader economic frustration among younger Americans, arguing that stagnant wages, inequality and the effects of past financial crises have undermined confidence in established political leadership.
虽然两位分析人士对舒默的眼前前景看法不同，但都认为代际更替最终是必要的。
While the two analysts differ on Schumer's immediate prospects, both see generational change as an eventual necessity.
巴特勒建议，民主党可以先让舒默和杰弗里斯掌权，随后再协商领导层过渡。
Butler suggested Democrats could initially allow Schumer and Jeffries to assume power before negotiating a leadership transition.
他警告说，长期的内斗可能会分散民主党的精力，使其无法兑现竞选承诺，并危及他们在2028年总统大选中的前景。
He warned that prolonged infighting could distract Democrats from delivering on their election promises and jeopardize their prospects in the 2028 presidential election.
“我认为，如果不那样做，我认为我们就会偏离使命，”他说，“而且我们冒着输掉2028年大选的风险。”
"I think that short of that, I think we lose the mission," he said, "and we risk losing 2028."