民主党人为何预计仍将让舒默和杰弗里斯继续掌权Why US Democrats are expected to keep Schumer and Jeffries in power

Over a week after Democrats rode a historic wave of support to retake the United States Congress, divisions within the party seem to be threatening to undermine its newfound political momentum.

Despite growing calls for a change in Congressional leadership, Democrats Chuck Schumer Hakeem Jeffries appear likely to remain at the helm of their respective US Senate and House caucuses.

After amassing the most Democratic power in Washington since 2009, the two New Yorkers are seeking to retain their leadership positions as their party prepares to take control of both chambers in January.

Schumer, the US Senate’s 75-year-old minority leader, is vying to lead Democrats’ new majority in the chamber, a post he previously held during Joe Biden’s presidency. On the other side of the US Capitol, the 56-year-old Jeffries, as the current minority leader in the US House, is seeking the top role of speaker, placing him second in the line of succession for the US presidency.

But the prospect of keeping Schumer and Jeffries in charge has frustrated some Democrats, exposing long-running tensions between Democratic lawmakers who want to maintain continuity and those who believe their midterm victories offer an opportunity to fundamentally reshape the party’s priorities. Here’s why Schumer and Jeffries could prevail: An election victory buys political goodwill Perhaps the biggest reason the top two Democrats in the US Congress will hold onto their posts: the party’s massive electoral gains.

Schumer’s supporters argue he helped Democrats secure at least eight Republican-held Senate seats, including victories in traditionally conservative states. The party is poised to hold as many as 56 seats in the next Congress, giving it a substantial majority not seen since former President Barack Obama’s first term in office.

“When the manager takes you to the World Series, you give him another contract”, Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego, with Schumer by his side, told reporters on Tuesday. “And this has been a really good election cycle for us”.

Schumer also played a central role in recruiting candidates who could compete in states where Democrats have struggled in recent elections, including former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, centre, speaks during a news conference in Washington on Tuesday as, from right, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse, Ruben Gallego and Kirsten Gillibrand [Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo] Adam Jentleson, a longtime US Senate aide and author of, Supermajority: How Democrats Can Build Lasting Power, argued Schumer’s electoral success makes it difficult for critics to mount a successful challenge.

“It’s hard to argue with somebody who just oversaw the biggest election the Democrats have had since Watergate,” Jentleson said during an interview with public radio station WBUR earlier this month.

“The only people who matter are the members of the Democratic caucus,” Jentleson said, explaining that lawmakers who had recently benefitted from the midterm results would have little incentive to remove the person who helped deliver those victories.

Schumer’s allies have made a similar argument. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, who oversees the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, credited Schumer’s candidate recruitment and fundraising efforts for helping the party reclaim the US Senate. “That takes vision. It takes clarity of thought. It takes strategic leadership,” she said. Schumer himself has expressed confidence that he has enough support to retain the position.

In an interview with The Washington Sun on Wednesday, he said he had secured more than enough backing from his colleagues.

“I am going to be elected leader, OK, and we’re united on the issues,” Schumer told the Sun. “We’re united.”Schumer faces a challenge Not every Democrat believes last week’s victories are enough to anoint Schumer as the party’s leader in the Senate in the next Congress.

Senator Chris Van Hollen announced on Thursday he would mount a challenge for the role after factions of the Democratic base, particularly progressives, have called for new leadership.

The Maryland Democrat attracted attention at the start of US President Donald Trump’s second term after he travelled to El Salvador to meet with his constituent, Kilmar Abrego Garcia who had been deported to the country despite a judge’s ruling barring his removal.

That, according to a senior Senate Democratic aide who spoke with Al Jazeera, exemplified “the fight Schumer just doesn’t have”.

“This is not about any one individual, but it is about answering the call of the American people,” Van Hollen said during a Thursday appearance on MSNOW, adding that US voters sent a message to “reject the status quo and to reject business as usual”.

Another Senate aide, who would only speak on condition of anonymity to talk freely about an internal matter, suggested Van Hollen’s bid may be more about extracting concessions from Schumer, like a promise to serve as a short-term “bridge” to a new generation of Democratic leadership.

Senator Chris Van Hollen, centre, arrives in Arish, Egypt, for a visit to observe aid efforts related to Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza alysis by Al Jazeera showed that 12 Democratic senators have publicly committed to backing Schumer in next month’s leadership election. At least 10 senators, including independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats, have said they will not. However, only half of those opposed to Schumer’s leadership have backed Van Hollen’s challenge.

In an interview with The Nation published on Wednesday, the Vermont independent senator acknowledged knowing Schumer for decades and even liking him personally. But he argued that personal relationships should not determine who leads the party.

“In this moment in American history, Chuck’s views are way out of touch with where the American people are at — and especially with where [the base of] the Democratic Party is,” Sanders said.

He added that Schumer was not in tune with Democratic voters on the issues, arguing the party needed a new and more ambitious direction.

Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin has also questioned Schumer’s leadership, calling for a concrete plan outlining how Democrats intend to use their newly won congressional power.

Slotkin went further on Tuesday, suggesting to reporters at the US Capitol that senators withhold a quorum — the minimum number of lawmakers required to conduct official business — if Schumer runs unopposed, until he presents a plan that gives members a meaningful voice in setting the party’s priorities.

Senator Elissa Slotkin speaks with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer at the US Capitol in Washington, DC [File: via AP] Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock has also declined to commit to supporting Schumer, telling CNN on Tuesday that Democrats are at an “inflection point” and any senator who believes they should lead deserves an opportunity to make their case.

Still, there is a difference between public dissatisfaction and the votes needed to remove a leader. Senate Democrats select their leader through a private ballot, requiring only a simple majority of the caucus.

Tre Easton, vice president for public policy at the Searchlight Institute and a former deputy chief of staff for Democratic Senator John Fetterman, has also questioned the timing of the push against Schumer, arguing calls for new leadership would have carried more weight following the Democrats’ losses in 2024 rather than immediately after their electoral successes in 2026.

“The job of the leader in each legislative chamber here in the U.S. isn’t to articulate a vision for the party”, Easton said in a social media post. “It’s to keep each respective caucus together and count votes. Dassit”.

Jeffries faces a different kind of challenge The outlook is considerably clearer for Jeffries, who is seeking to become the first Black speaker of the House when the new Congress convenes on January 3.

Unlike Schumer, Jeffries does not face a prominent challenger for his leadership position, despite criticism from some progressives over his approach to Trump and his longstanding support for Israel. His backing from moderate Democrats has been particularly visible.

The New Democrat Coalition, a group of Democratic centrists representing 142 current and newly elected lawmakers, issued a statement on Tuesday endorsing his bid for speaker.

“Hakeem Jeffries is the right person at the right time to lead our party”, the group said. “He’s smart, strategic, and action-oriented, with strong relationships across the Democratic caucus”.

The coalition added that it “can’t wait to vote for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker of the House on January 3, 2027”. But support from the party’s moderate wing has not eliminated dissatisfaction among progressives.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a news conference in Washington, DC [File: Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo] Representative Pramila Jayapal, a former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said she is withholding her support for Jeffries unless he commits to advancing Medicare for All, a proposal to establish a government-funded universal healthcare system. Jayapal has also acknowledged that the lack of an alternative candidate complicates the leadership debate.

“You can’t beat somebody with nobody,” the Washington state Democrat told Talking Points Memo, adding that the emergence of a challenger would change the calculations of lawmakers considering whether to support Jeffries.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, meanwhile, was asked by CNN whether she supported Jeffries.

“The race is unopposed. Yeah,” she responded, suggesting that the absence of a challenger was an important factor in the debate.

The tensions in the US House have also been illustrated by the case of Don Leonard, an incoming Democratic congressman from Ohio who said he will withhold his support for Jeffries unless the party commits to specific policy changes.

Leonard, who has called for an end to US support for Israel and the war in Iran, alleged in a video posted to social media that senior House Democrats threatened to make his life a “living hell” in Washington and undermine his chances of re-election in 2028 if he continued attaching conditions to his support for Jeffries.

He has not identified the lawmakers involved, and the allegations have not been independently verified. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar told reporters on Tuesday he did not know which senior Democrats Leonard was referring to.

Jeffries, who has denied reports that US House Democrats have been receiving calls to oppose his bid for the speakership, spoke to reporters on Thursday about frustrations within the party over his leadership.

“We take nothing for granted, because all of us in the House of Representatives are on a two-year employment contract”, Jeffries said. “And we have to continue to make our case both with respect to our track record up until this point, as well as, perhaps even more importantly, our vision for the future”.

The pressure will come after the leadership votes The leadership contests are scheduled for November 18 and 19 for House Democrats and at an unannounced date in December for Senate Democrats.

If elected, both Schumer and Jeffries will likely continue to face competing demands from progressives seeking more aggressive action against Trump and from moderates representing districts and states where a more centrist approach may be politically important.

They will also have to contend with the practical limitations of governing. Even with control of both chambers, Democrats will not have the 60 Senate votes generally required to overcome a filibuster, meaning they will need Republican support for much of their legislation.

For now, however, the party’s electoral gains have given Schumer and Jeffries an argument for continuity.

“I welcome any discussion about the future of our caucus and the important work ahead,” Schumer wrote in an X post on Thursday. “I’m proud of what we’ve accomplished together—55 seats and counting is an amazing result—and I have the votes to continue serving as Democratic Leader.”