巴拉圭近年来凭借强劲增长、低税收以及在动荡地区中安全避风港的声誉，赢得了投资者的青睐。但总统垮台、中央银行陷入混乱以及一家金融公司破产，让投资者开始质疑这个国家是否仍是一个好的投资选择。
Paraguay won over investors in recent years thanks to strong growth, low taxes and a reputation as a safe haven in a volatile region. But the president’s downfall, a central bank in disarray and a financial firm in ruins have left investors questioning whether the country is still a good bet.
本月早些时候，警方逮捕了前总统圣地亚哥·佩尼亚——这位四处奔波、英语流利的国家推销员——以及他之前的央行行长卡洛斯·卡瓦略，指控他们与乌埃诺银行倒闭相关的腐败案件。该银行倒闭导致超过290万客户无法取用自己的钱。
Police detained former President Santiago Peña — the nation’s jet-setting, English-speaking salesman — and his ex-central bank chief, Carlos Carvallo, earlier this month on corruption charges related to the collapse of Ueno Bank, which left more than 2.9 million clients without access to their money.
惠誉评级周三将巴拉圭列入信用评级下调观察名单，理由是乌埃隆银行倒闭可能带来的经济和财政影响。自9月以来，巴拉圭的主权风险上升了约30个基点，达到134。虽然按拉丁美洲标准仍然较低，但这已经打破了投资者所感知风险的长期下降趋势。
Fitch Ratings placed Paraguay on watch for a credit downgrade on Wednesday, citing the potential economic and fiscal fallout from Ueno’s collapse. Paraguay’s sovereign risk has jumped about 30 basis points since September to 134. Although still low by Latin America standards, it’s so far upended a long-term decline in risk perceived by investors.
当地企业主对国会的闪电般迅速行动表示赞赏，国会在监管机构关闭乌埃诺银行仅三天后就弹劾了佩尼亚。外国投资者则更不愿相信一切都已修复。该银行的国际债券，11月初时每美元仍值85美分以上，如今已暴跌至约5美分。
Business owners on the ground applauded congress’ lightning-fast approach, impeaching Peña just three days after regulators closed Ueno. Foreign investors are more hesitant to believe everything is patched up. The bank’s international bonds, which started November above 85 cents on the dollar, have nosedived to about 5 cents.
阿尔法信贷顾问公司合伙人塞萨尔·费尔南德斯表示，乌埃隆丑闻实际上已将巴拉圭的企业发行人挡在全球资本市场之外，并将迫使政府支付更高的借款成本，因为投资者要求更高的风险溢价。
The Ueno scandal has effectively shut Paraguay’s corporate issuers out of global capital markets and will force the government to pay higher borrowing costs as investors demand a bigger risk premium, Alpha Credit Advisors partner Cesar Fernandez said.
“这一情况削弱了各机构，”费尔南德斯在伦敦接受电话采访时说。“现在我们投资时需要更加谨慎，因为我们需要将政治体制视为投资过程中的一个因素。”位于阿根廷和巴西之间的内陆国家巴拉圭是国际资本市场的相对新来者，于2013年发行了其首笔主权债券。透明国际的腐败感知指数长期将其排在南美洲末位。
“This situation has weakened the institutions,” Fernandez said in a telephone interview from London. “Now we need to be more careful when investing because we need to account for the political establishment as one of the factors in our investment process.”Wedged between Argentina and Brazil, landlocked Paraguay is a relative newcomer to international capital markets, selling its first sovereign bond in 2013. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index has long ranked it near the bottom in South America.
然而，快速增长、可信的经济政策以及与美国政府的保持一致，提升了巴拉圭的声誉。该国于2024年获得穆迪评级的投资级评级，随后去年12月获得标准普尔全球评级的投资级评级。美洲开发银行今年早些时候在该国首都亚松森举行了年度会议。
Yet rapid growth, credible economic policy and alignment with US administrations burnished Paraguay’s reputation. It earned investment grade status from Moody’s Ratings in 2024, followed by S&P Global Ratings last December. The Inter-American Development Bank hosted its annual meeting in the nation’s capital, Asuncion, earlier this year.
更近期，华盛顿对巴拉圭全力支持。10月，佩尼亚在华盛顿会见了美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特，此前几天他刚在亚松森接待了美国副国务卿克里斯·兰多。卡瓦略还主持了国际货币基金组织的会议。
Even more recently, Washington was all-in on Paraguay. In October, Peña met US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington days after hosting Deputy Secretary of State Chris Landau in Asuncion. Carvallo chaired the International Monetary Fund’s meetings too.
可以肯定的是，巴拉圭经济继续保持强劲增长，通胀低于2%，外国直接投资多年来稳步回升。基本面只是被声誉受损所掩盖。
To be sure, Paraguay’s economy continues to post strong growth, inflation is below 2% and foreign direct investment has steadily picked up for years. The fundamentals are just overshadowed by reputational damage.
中央银行作为银行监管机构的可信度也受到了损害，因为卡瓦略此前曾领导乌埃诺的前身公司，在该商业银行倒闭前，他对其运营的担忧予以否认。该货币当局上周开始从存款保险基金向乌埃诺储户偿还款项。
The central bank’s credibility as a banking regulator also suffered as Carvallo, who had previously led Ueno’s predecessor company, dismissed concerns about the commercial lender’s operations before it failed. The monetary authority started repaying Ueno savers from the deposit insurance fund last week.
“中央银行必须尽快恢复其在国内和国际上的可信度和声誉，”中央银行新任主席豪尔赫·施雷纳周二晚间对记者说。
“It is imperative that the central bank restore its credibility and reputation, both domestically and internationally, as quickly as possible,” the central bank’s new chairman Jorge Schreiner told reporters late Tuesday.
重建信心并非易事。匈牙利最大的贷款机构OTP银行，在8月份将其在Ueno的股权增持至近10%时仍表达了兴奋之情。如今，该行对这项投资计提了3200万美元的减值准备，该行副首席执行官拉斯洛·本奇克将其称为“非常糟糕且令人不快”的经历。
It won’t be easy to rebuild confidence. Hungary’s largest lender, OTP Bank, had expressed excitement as recently as August after boosting its stake in Ueno to nearly 10%. Now it’s taking a $32 million charge on that investment, which Deputy Chief Executive Officer Laszlo Bencsik called a “very bad and unpleasant” experience.
“我们不知道这些问题，监管机构也不知道，”本奇克在周三匈牙利银行财报公布后对记者表示。“我们直到现在才得知，到那时已经太迟了。”牛仔裤制造商豪尔赫·邦奇科夫从未想过像Ueno这样的大银行会倒闭，并把总裁也拖下水。他位于巴拉圭，接到了包括巴西投资者在内的几十个焦虑投资者的电话，这些巴西投资者正考虑暂停他们的项目。他说，有些项目仍将继续推进。
“We didn’t know about the problems and neither did the regulator,” Bencsik told reporters on Wednesday after the publication of the Hungarian bank’s earnings. “We only learned of it now and by then it was too late.”Denim maker Jorge Bunchicoff never thought a major bank like Ueno would go under and take the president down with hit. Based in Paraguay, he received dozens of calls from nervous investors including Brazilians who were thinking about pausing their projects. He says some projects will still move forward.
“机构反应良好。一切都在不到两周内以我感到惊讶的速度展开，”邦奇科夫说，他是蓝色设计公司的联合创始人，该公司位于首都亚松森附近的工厂向美国、英国和日本出口高端牛仔裤。“我的看法是，我们将以更强的基础走出这一局面。”乌拉圭商商人罗德里戈·阿塔加韦蒂亚表示，尽管Ueno丑闻对该国声誉造成了损害，但作为巴拉圭经济支柱的畜牧业和农业应该受到的影响不大。他的农业服务公司Everdem在巴拉圭管理着超过4.2万头牛。
“The institutions responded well. Everything unfolded in less than two weeks with a speed that I found remarkable,” said Bunchicoff, co-founder of Blue Design, whose factory near the capital Asuncion exports premium jeans to the US, UK and Japan. “My view is that we exit this situation on a stronger footing.”Ranching and farming, the lynchpins of Paraguay’s economy, should see little fallout from the Ueno scandal despite the damage it inflicted on the country’s reputation, said Uruguayan businessman Rodrigo Artagaveytia, whose agriculture services firm Everdem manages more than 42,000 cattle in Paraguay.
“受影响最大的可能是林业部门，该部门更依赖大型机构投资者。他们自然会以不同的眼光看待巴拉圭，并更加密切地关注，”他说，“尤其是如果该国的投资级评级受到威胁的话。”
“The sector that could be most affected is forestry, which relies more heavily on large institutional investors. They are naturally going to look at Paraguay differently and pay closer attention” especially if the nation’s investment grade status is threatened, he said.
乌拉圭私募股权基金IBF Negocios正在推进收购两家巴拉圭公司的谈判，金额近2000万美元，联合创始人乌戈·本内代蒂表示。但由于最近的事件，目前对巴拉圭的进一步投资已搁置，他说。
Uruguayan private equity fund IBF Negocios is pushing ahead with negotiations to acquire two Paraguayan companies for nearly $20 million, co-founder Hugo Benedetti said. But further investments in Paraguay are off the table for now due to recent events, he said.
“这对巴拉圭来说不会没有代价，”贝内代蒂关于乌埃诺表示。“我认为投资界会要求付出代价。人们会更加谨慎。我们也会更加谨慎。”
“This won’t come without a cost for Paraguay,” Benedetti said about Ueno. “I think the investment community will exact a price. People are going to be more cautious. We are going to be more cautious.”