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从2028年民主党大选潜在竞争者的首次大型聚会中我们学到了什么What we learned from the first big gathering of 2028 Democratic hopefuls

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Kevin Mohatt / 路透社Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

这里聚集的民主党人被告知:中期选举的大胜并不代表是你们的功劳。

The Democrats here were told: The big midterm win wasn’t about you.

然而,在数百名党内操盘手、战略家和2028年潜在总统候选人当中,气氛又是怎样的呢?在经历了近十年生活在总统唐纳德·特朗普阴影下的日子之后,他们聚集在一起探讨下一步何去何从。狂欢吧,韦恩!狂欢吧,加思!

But the vibes among the hundreds of party operatives, strategists and would-be 2028 presidential candidates who gathered to ask what’s next after nearly a decade of living in President Donald Trump’s shadow?

可以说,自从“韦恩的世界”那个时代以来,民主党人还从未拥有过如此开放的总统候选人阵容。当时,一位天赋异禀的南方州长名叫比尔·克林顿,几乎凭空崛起,赢得了1992年的白宫大选。

Party on, Wayne! Party on, Garth!

如今,民主党人走出了特朗普强加的政治荒漠,迎来了自水门事件以来最全面的中期选举大胜。他们准备在开始一段势必狂热的总统竞选声明、招募人员、筹款以及十多位或更多白宫潜在角逐者之间的残酷内斗之前,稍作喘息。

Democrats arguably haven’t had such a wide-open presidential field since the “Wayne’s World” era, when a preternaturally talented Southern state governor named Bill Clinton came almost out of nowhere to win the White House in 1992.

甚至潜在候选人也难以掩饰他们的兴奋,他们在丹佛市中心丽思卡尔顿酒店的赞助商晚宴上、酒店屋顶招待会上以及酒吧里把酒言欢,许多人深夜仍在人群中交际。

Now, Democrats have exploded out of a Trump-imposed political wilderness to their most sweeping midterm win since Watergate. And they were ready to take a beat before they begin what’s sure to be a frenzied season of presidential campaign announcements, hiring, fundraising and knife-fighting among a dozen or more White House hopefuls.

但在第一天的会议主舞台上,这里聚集的人们得到了警告:选民其实并没有那么喜欢他们。

Even the would-be candidates could barely hide their elation during donor dinners, at hotel rooftop receptions, and over drinks at the bar at the Ritz-Carlton in downtown Denver, where many mingled late into the night.

与会者在11月13日于丹佛Mission Ballroom举行的“What's Next”峰会上聆听发言。Mark Makela/Getty ImagesAttendees listen to speeches during the What's Next summit at Mission Ballroom in Denver on November 13. Mark Makela/Getty Images

具有影响力的民主党数据专家大卫·肖尔在为期两天的聚会拉开帷幕时表示:“我们失去的、我们疏远的这些选民仍然在外面,他们还没有成为民主党人。两年后他们还会在这里,如果我们到那时还没有说服他们,我们可能会对结果感到不高兴。”

But on the main stage, on the first day, those gathered here were warned: Voters still aren’t all that into them.

对于如何做到这一点,各方并未达成一致。从舞台上传出的处方预示着即将拉开帷幕的争端:周二的胜利是否表明,来自该党左翼的不妥协斗士能够主导提名竞争并赢得全国大选?

“These voters that we lost and that we have turned away are still out there and they have not become Democrats yet,” influential Democratic data guru David Shor said as the two-day gathering kicked off. “They will be here in two years, and if we have not persuaded them by then, we might not be happy with how things turn out.”There was no agreement about how to do that. The prescriptions coming from the stage previewed the struggle that’s beginning to emerge: Did Tuesday’s wins signal an uncompromising fighter from the party’s left wing can dominate the nominating contest and go on to win a national election?

还是说,其传达的信息是,为了在各地赢得胜利,该党应该选择一个能够吸引那些拒绝新冠疫情时期“觉醒”文化战争政治的选民的人?

Or is the message that to win everywhere, the party should choose someone who can appeal to the voters who rejected the woke culture-war politics of the Covid era?

“美国人民等不起两年的变革。所以我们必须与特朗普总统合作,”当选得克萨斯州参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科(James Talarico)说。

“The American people cannot wait two years for change. So we must work with President Trump,” said Texas Sen.-elect James Talarico.

“我们修复这一问题的唯一方法就是共同修复它。我们无法用把我们带到这里的同样的内斗来解决问题,”爱荷华州当选民主党州长罗布·桑德(Rob Sand)说。

“The only way we’re going to fix that is by fixing it together. We can’t do it with the same warfare that brought us here,” said Rob Sand, the incoming Democratic governor of Iowa.

将这两位千禧一代的红州新面孔与民主党众议员罗·康纳(Ro Khanna)进行对比,康纳来自深蓝的加州,曾任伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)2020年总统竞选团队的共同主席,并被普遍预计将在2028年以毫不妥协的进步派身份竞选总统。

Contrast those two millennial red-state newcomers with Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who hails from deep-blue California, co-chaired Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign in 2020, and is widely expected to run for president in 2028 as an unapologetic progressive.

“现在不是20世纪90年代。我们无法通过不断的三面讨好、骑墙和算计来拼凑一个稍纵即逝的大帐篷,”康纳在台上说。提到“三面讨好”是对克林顿时代一个流行词的明确抨击。

“This is not the 1990s. We cannot cobble together a fleeting big tent through perpetual triangulating, straddling, and calculating,” Khanna said onstage. The reference to “triangulating” was an unmistakable jab at a buzzword of the Clinton era.

这次聚会提醒人们注意来自该党基层的怒火。马里兰州参议员克里斯·范·荷伦(Chris Van Hollen)在宣布将挑战查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)争夺下一任参议院多数党领袖后发表了讲话。

The gathering offered a few reminders of the anger emanating from the party’s base. Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen spoke after announcing he would challenge Chuck Schumer to be the next Senate majority leader.

可能当选的众议院议长哈基姆·杰弗里斯(Hakeem Jeffries)遭到台下观众起哄,其中一人大喊杰弗里斯是“一个他妈的骗子!”,随后被护送出大厅。

Likely incoming House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries was heckled by the audience, with one person yelling Jeffries was “a f**king liar!” before being escorted from the hall.

抗议者在11月13日“What's Next”峰会第二天议程开始前,在丹佛Mission Ballroom外示威。Mark Makela/Getty ImagesProtesters demonstrate outside before the second day of programming at the What's Next summit outside Mission Ballroom in Denver, on November 13. Mark Makela/Getty Images

抗议者聚集在安保圈外,手举标语,上面写着“废除亿万富翁”、“拒绝舒默加冕”以及“不要再做无所作为的民主党人”。一辆丹佛特警(SWAT)车辆停在他们与网约车下客点之间。

And protesters gathered outside the security perimeter, holding signs that read, “Abolish billionaires,” “No Schumer coronation,” and “No more do-nothing Democrats.”A Denver SWAT vehicle was parked between them and the rideshare dropoff line.

众议院民主党领袖、众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯(民主党-纽约州)在11月13日于丹佛Mission Ballroom举行的“What's Next”峰会问答环节中,注视着向他高呼口号的抗议者。Mark Makela/Getty ImagesHouse Democratic Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-NY, watches protesters screaming at him while participating in a question and answer event during the What's Next summit at Mission Ballroom in Denver on November 13.. Mark Makela/Getty Images

但在安保圈内和舞台之下,所有的分歧都在近乎狂喜的庆祝氛围中烟消云散。啤酒厂外停着餐车,供应当地的生工艺啤酒。演讲间隙,户外广场上有乐队表演。两天天气都在65度左右、阳光明媚,天气晴朗得足以看到群山。

But inside that perimeter and off the stage, all the divisions evaporated into an atmosphere of celebration bordering on elation. There were food trucks parked outside the brewery serving local craft beers on draft. There were musical acts performing in the outdoor plaza in between speeches. Both days were about 65 degrees and sunny, with the weather clear enough to see the mountains.

里兹酒吧打烊后的环境非常温馨舒适。周四晚上,酒水开始畅饮,正考虑竞选总统的亚利桑那州参议员鲁本·加莱戈在现场侃侃而谈。皮特·布蒂吉格周四晚上也被发现在那里,宾夕法尼亚州长乔希·夏皮罗亦是如此。

And it was very cozy and comfortable after hours at at the Ritz bar. The drinks started flowing Thursday night, with Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, who’s considering a presidential run, holding court. Pete Buttigieg was also spotted there Thursday night, as was Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

周五傍晚,全国范围内的美国联邦航空管理局地面停飞令导致所有人滞留丹佛至少几个小时。密歇根州参议员埃丽萨·斯洛特金与弗吉尼亚州长阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格以及新泽西州长米基·谢里尔坐在一起,直到停飞令解除。佐治亚州参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克与记者进行了一场不公开的私下交谈。布蒂吉格也回来了,被看到拍了一两张自拍。伊利诺伊州长JB·普里茨克未能出席此次会议,但他的团队也在里兹酒吧。与亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利有关联的政治操盘手以及其他少数人也在那里。

And Friday evening, the nationwide FAA ground stop stranded everyone in Denver at least for a few hours. Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin sat with Govs. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Mikie Sherill of New Jersey until the stop was lifted. Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock huddled off the record with reporters. Buttigieg was back too, spotted snapping a selfie or two. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker couldn’t attend the conference, but his team was at the Ritz bar too. So were operatives with ties to Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and a handful of others.

CNN资深政治评论员、前美国总统奥巴马高级顾问大卫·阿克塞尔罗德(左起)、新泽西州州长米基·谢里尔、科罗拉多州检察长菲利普·怀泽、弗吉尼亚州州长阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格,以及前州议员乔纳森·克赖斯-汤姆David Axelrod, senior political commentator at CNN and former senior advisor to former US President Barack Obama, from left, Mikie Sherrill, governor of New Jersey, Philip Weiser, Colorado attorney general, Abigail Spanberger, governor of Virginia, and former State Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tom

会议真正的核心工作正是在这里展开的。据与潜在总统竞选人有关联的十多名战略家和操盘手透露,当务之急是为预计最快于1月甚至更早启动的总统竞选招募员工并建立人脉。

This was where the conference’s real business unfolded. A top priority was recruiting staff and making connections for presidential campaigns that are set to start kicking off as soon as January, if not earlier, according to conversations with over a dozen strategists and operatives with ties to presidential hopefuls.

许多闲聊和猜测都集中在那些不在现场的潜在候选人身上,其中卡玛拉·哈里斯和亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯尤为突出。她们是否决定参加2028年总统竞选,将从根本上塑造其余的竞选格局。

Much of the chatter and speculation focused on possible candidates who weren’t in the room, Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez chief among them. Their decisions to run or not to run for president in 2028 will fundamentally shape the rest of the field.

在南方的胜利凸显了黑人选民的力量——他们在任何民主党初选中或许已经是最重要的单一选民群体,而哈里斯在那里拥有巨大的优势,特别是在黑人女性当中。

Wins across the South underscore the power of Black voters, already perhaps the most important single constituency in any Democratic primary, and Harris starts with an enormous advantage there, especially among Black women.

还有进步派阵营,他们受到工人阶级候选人以及密歇根州阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德等人胜利的鼓舞。

And then there’s the progressive wing, energized by victories from working-class candidates and people like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.

“人们认为左翼人士有更大的空间,并想知道这是否意味着AOC要参选,”一位与2028年潜在民主党总统候选人关系密切的高级操盘手表示。

“People are thinking there’s more room for someone on the left, and wondering if it means AOC is going to run,” said one top operative with close ties to a likely 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.

关于宾夕法尼亚州长乔什·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro),人们也进行了广泛的猜测。他一直被广泛视为2028年大选的顶级潜在竞争者。他吸引人的核心论点是,他能在版图上最重要的摇摆州之一赢得大胜。现在,党内的新面孔给他带来了许多竞争。

There was also widespread speculation about Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, whose been widely considered a top-tier likely 2028 contender. At the heart of his appeal had been the argument he can win big in one of the most important swing states on the map. Now, he’s got a lot of competition from newer faces in the party.

夏皮罗在接受我采访时表示:“我很自豪能成为我认为是全美最摇摆的州的州长,但我们现在有了很多同伴。看看得克萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、艾奥瓦州以及更多地方。但我认为,这为民主党人提供了一个机遇,不要去考虑如何在选举人票版图上凑够270票,而是要像奥巴马和克林顿获胜那样,拿下370票。”包括加利福尼亚州长加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)和佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)在内的其他潜在竞争者也没有出席这里。

“I’m proud to be the governor of what I think is the swingiest state in America, but we got a lot of company now,” Shapiro told me in an interview. “Look at Texas, look at South Carolina, Iowa, and a whole lot more. But I think that presents an opportunity for Democrats not to be thinking about how to get to 270 on an electoral map, but get to 370 back how Obama won and Clinton won.”Other potential contenders, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, also didn’t appear here.

纽森在过去一年里不断抨击特朗普,在无形初选中一度占据领跑者地位,但如今似乎在主要讨论中有些黯然失色,至少在大厅里是这样。

Newsom, who had occupied something of frontrunner status in the invisible primary as he jabbed at Trump over the past year, seemed to have faded somewhat from the main conversation, at least in these halls.

正当聚集在这里的数百名民主党人艰难寻找离开丹佛的方法时,机场的混乱几乎预示着,对于一个欢欣鼓罗但注定要为下一步走向展开激烈内部博弈的政党来说,这可能是一场大规模的“后特朗普时期”阵痛。

As the hundreds of Democrats who gathered here struggled to find a way out of Denver, the airport chaos almost presaged what could be a massive post-Trump hangover for a party that’s elated but set for a bruising internal struggle over what’s next.

马萨诸塞州众议员杰克·奥钦克洛斯(Jake Auchincloss)表示:“如果你去问美国人民,我们反对谁是没有疑问的。但对于我们信仰什么,他们也没有任何概念。这就是我们现在必须回答的问题。”

“If you ask the American people, there is no question about who we oppose,” said Massachusetts Rep. Jake Auchincloss. “But also no sense of what we believe. That is the question we have to answer right now.”

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