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华尔街日报

撼动民主党2028年竞选格局的新星与总统候选人The New Stars and Presidential Hopefuls Shaking Up Democrats’ 2028 Field

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吉娜·伊诺霍萨和詹姆斯·塔拉里科本周一在得克萨斯州奥斯汀举行的选前竞选集会上。(Jabin Botsford 为《华尔街日报》拍摄)Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico at a pre-election campaign rally this past Monday in Austin, Texas. (Jabin Botsford for WSJ)

民主党在中期选举中取得压倒性胜利后,涌现出一批人才济济的新星,为该党注入了新活力。但随着他们转向已非正式拉开帷幕的2028年总统初选,局势可能变得更加混乱。

Democrats have emerged from a resounding midterm victory with a deep bench and rising stars who have reinvigorated the party. But as they pivot to a 2028 presidential primary contest already informally under way, things could get messier.

新面孔帮助民主党在多个深红州实现反超,为预计将是民主党一代人以来最开放的初选奠定了基础,一些候选人预计将在未来几个月宣布参选。

Fresh faces helped Democrats swing deep-red states ahead of a primary that is expected to be among the most wide open in a generation for Democrats, with some candidates expected to announce their bids in the coming months.

随着预计将出现庞大的参选阵容,提名之争恐将暴露困扰民主党的分歧:建制派与局外人、温和派与进步派、亲以色列派与以色列怀疑论者、年轻派与资历派。而该党在中期选举中的全面胜利,将允许对该党应如何在政治和政策上推进做出多种解读。

With a sprawling field expected, the nomination race threatens to expose divisions unsettling Democrats: establishment vs. outsider, moderate vs. progressive, pro-Israel vs. Israel skeptics and youth vs. experience. And the party’s sweeping midterm success will allow for multiple interpretations of how it should move forward on politics and policy.

目前,潜在候选人正在与捐赠者和潜在支持者建立联系,同时奔走于各类会议之间。上周在华盛顿举行了两场会议,下周还将在丹佛举行一场会议。以下是该党一些明星人物和总统候选人的概况:几十年来,民主党一直试图在得克萨斯州赢得选举。詹姆斯·塔拉里科和吉娜·伊诺霍萨终于做到了,分别成为该州的下一任参议员和州长。他们以巨大优势获胜,震惊了政坛,瞬间跻身全国舞台。塔拉里科的宗教信息传递和社交媒体上的病毒式传播时刻吸引了全国选民的目光。

For now, potential candidates are networking with donors and potential supporters while hitting the conference circuit. There were two confabs in Washington this past week and an additional conference will be held in Denver next week. Here’s a look at some of the party’s stars and presidential hopefuls: Democrats have been trying to win elections in Texas for decades. James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa finally did, becoming the state’s next senator and governor, respectively. Their sizable victories shocked the political establishment, immediately elevating them onto the national stage. Talarico’s religious messaging and viral social-media moments captivated voters nationwide.

参议员乔恩·奥索夫(民主党-佐治亚州)(Elijah Nouvelage/彭博新闻社)Sen. Jon Ossoff (D., Ga.) (Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg News)

在密歇根州,阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德有望成为美国首位穆斯林参议员。他的胜利极大地鼓舞了该党的进步派,后者现在可以主张:极左派候选人甚至能在总统选举的摇摆州获胜。考虑到他在进步派中的追随者基础,埃尔-赛义德可能成为2028年大选中的关键背书人选。

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is poised to become the nation’s first Muslim senator. His victory was a major boost for the party’s progressive wing, which can now argue far-left candidates can win even in presidential battlegrounds. Given his following among progressives, El-Sayed could be a key endorsement in the 2028 race.

罗布·桑德以11个百分点的优势当选爱荷华州下一任州长——在特朗普总统2024年曾以13个百分点优势赢下该州的情况下——为民主党提供了一个模式,展示了该党如何可能赢得此前大多已放弃的中西部领地。

Rob Sand’s 11-percentage-point victory to become Iowa’s next governor—in a state President Trump won by 13 points in 2024—has given Democrats a model for how to potentially win Midwestern territory their party had previously mostly written off.

参议员乔恩·奥索夫本周以18个百分点的巨大优势在摇摆州佐治亚州成功连任,引发了关于他2028年竞选总统的更多猜测。奥索夫周日晚间的集会和病毒式传播的短视频推动了筹款和关注度——回想他提及白宫助手娜塔莉·哈普。该参议员表示,他对总统竞选“零兴趣”。但如果他改变主意,将是一位强劲的竞争者。

Sen. Jon Ossoff’s massive re-election victory this week—he won by 18 points in battleground Georgia—has spurred even more speculation about a presidential bid in 2028. Ossoff’s Sunday night rallies and viral short-form videos drove fundraising and attention—recall his reference to White House aide Natalie Harp. The senator has said he has “zero interest” in a presidential campaign. But if he changes his mind, he would be formidable.

前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在2028年早期民调中仍领跑,她关于第三次竞选总统的决定——此前她在2024年与特朗普的竞选时间较短——将受到密切关注。然而,大多数民主党人不会以她是否参选为依据做决定。哈里斯曾为三位即将上任的黑人州长在摇摆州助选,她也是密歇根州参议员候选人埃尔-赛义德和密西西比州参议员候选人斯科特·科洛姆的关键代理人,这表明她在党内仍是一位举足轻重的人物。

Former Vice President Kamala Harris still leads early 2028 polling and her decision about a third presidential campaign—after her abbreviated 2024 race against Trump—will be closely watched. Most Democrats, however, won’t base their decisions on whether she runs or not. Harris campaigned in battleground states for a trio of incoming Black governors and she was also a key surrogate for Senate candidates El-Sayed in Michigan and Scott Colom in Mississippi, a sign that she remains a formidable figure in the party.

前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Angelina Katsanis/美联社)Former Vice President Kamala Harris (Angelina Katsanis/Associated Press)

前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格是2020年总统候选人,在2026年中期选举中是跨意识形态谱系最受欢迎的代理人之一,他跑遍38个州,为102名候选人助选(迄今已有90人获胜)。布蒂吉格在接受采访时表示,他的中期选举工作重点是“扩大版图,在更保守的地方竞争——这通常关乎代际更替——新人挺身而出,创造改变。”早期民调显示,布蒂吉格在新罕布什尔州处于有利位置,该州将成为民主党日程上的第三个初选州。

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 presidential candidate, was among the most in-demand surrogates in 2026 across the ideological spectrum, traveling to 38 states and campaigning for 102 candidates (so far, 90 have won). Buttigieg said in an interview that his midterm work was focused on “expanding the map and competing in more conservative places—it’s often about generational change—new people stepping up to make a difference.”Early polling has shown Buttigieg well-positioned in New Hampshire, slated to be the third state on the Democratic calendar.

虽然从未竞选过总统,但拉姆·伊曼纽尔绝不能被称为局外人。这位芝加哥前市长曾任众议员、白幕僚长以及驻日大使。过去14个月里,伊曼纽尔走访了20个州,定于11月16日在卡内基梅隆大学发表一场重要的国内政策演讲,这是他在党内所谓“理念初选”中争取领先地位的最新举措。

While he hasn’t run for president before, Rahm Emanuel could never be described as an outsider. The former Chicago mayor has also been a member of Congress, White House chief of staff and ambassador to Japan. Emanuel, who traveled to 20 states in the past 14 months, is set to deliver a major domestic policy speech Nov. 16 at Carnegie Mellon University, the latest in his effort to lead the party’s so-called ideas primary.

也要留意新奥尔良前市长米奇·兰德留,他是乔·拜登白宫的顾问,与南方黑人选民关系紧密。

Also keep an eye on former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, an adviser in Joe Biden’s White House with strong ties to Black voters in the South.

如果竞选总统,伊利诺伊州州长J·B·普里兹克不必大力争取大额捐款。这位亿万富翁、凯悦酒店财富继承人周二赢得第三个任期,并已向自己的竞选活动投入数亿美元。据一位了解其捐款情况的人士透露,他在中期选举期间作为主要党内捐赠者结交了更多盟友,在两年选举周期内向民主党人及相关事业捐赠了超过3800万美元。普里兹克在大选次日推出了一份长达75页的政策建议,向国会提出建议。

If he runs for president, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker won’t have to aggressively court big-donor money. The billionaire, an heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, won a third term on Tuesday and has invested hundreds of millions into his own campaigns. He used the midterms to make additional friends as a major party donor, giving Democrats and allied causes more than $38 million during the two-year election cycle, according to a person familiar with his giving. Pritzker rolled out a 75-page policy proposal the day after the election making suggestions to Congress.

伊利诺伊州州长 JB·普里茨克(Octavio Jones/路透社)Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (Octavio Jones/Reuters)

加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森与普里兹克一样,一直是对抗特朗普最强硬的民主党州长之一。他在德州共和党推动重划选区后,致力于重新划分本州国会选区,赢得了党内基本盘的好感。纽森10月曾高调访问新罕布什尔州,并通过活跃的社交媒体运营和播客节目,力求掌控媒体叙事。

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who along with Pritzker has been among the most combative Democratic governors confronting Trump, gained affection from his party’s base for his efforts to redraw congressional districts in his state after the GOP’s redistricting push in Texas. Newsom made a high-profile trip to New Hampshire in October and has sought to master the media game through an active social-media presence and a podcast.

肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔在2026年的大部分时间里奔波全国,为民主党候选人助选筹款,当时他担任民主党州长协会主席。贝希尔展现出在特朗普赢得的地区获胜的能力,当他的民主党州长协会主席任期于下个月结束时,他将能够指向一个极其成功的选举周期:民主党翻转了至少五个州长席位,并将在2027年初拥有29或30个州长席位,其中包括所有七个2024年总统选战摇摆州的州长席位。

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear spent much of 2026 traveling the nation to boost Democratic candidates and raise money as chairman of the Democratic Governors Association. Beshear has shown an ability to win in Trump country and when his DGA chairmanship ends next month, he will be able to point back to a hugely successful election cycle where Democrats flipped at least five governorships and will start 2027 with 29 or 30, including in all seven 2024 presidential battleground states.

“必须是一个不仅吸引民主党人,还能吸引独立选民甚至一些共和党人的人选,”贝希尔在接受采访时表示,描述他心目中下一任民主党提名人的特质。“需要是一个务实的问题解决者,这也是我一直说我认为应该由一位民主党州长担任的原因。无论是我——我还没有做任何决定——还是其他人。”

“It has to be someone that appeals not just to Democrats, but to independents and some Republicans, too,” Beshear said in an interview, describing the attributes he wants of the next Democratic nominee. “It needs to be a practical problem-solver and that’s why I’ve always said I think it ought to be a Democratic governor. That’s whether it’s me—and I haven’t made any decision—or someone else.”

宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗在连任中大获全胜,使他在中期选举期间将精力高度集中在本州,但预计很快将开始探索更广阔的舞台。他是潜在候选人阵营中较为温和的民主党人之一,可以指出他帮助将宾夕法尼亚州四个国会选区从红变蓝,并为民主党自1992年以来首次夺得“三权合一”——控制州长职位及州立法机构两院。

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s blowout re-election victory kept his focus intensely on his home state during the midterm campaign, but is expected to soon start exploring more beyond the commonwealth. He is one of the more moderate Democrats in the potential field and can point to helping flip four Pennsylvania congressional seats from red to blue and securing a trifecta—control of the governorship and both of the state’s legislative chambers—for the first time since 1992.

马里兰州州长韦斯·穆尔在连任中取得巨大优势,归功于任内实现预算盈余和暴力犯罪下降。他曾因联邦拨款问题与特朗普发生冲突,但对于是否竞选总统一直守口如瓶。作为全美州长协会主席,穆尔拥有一个现成的平台,使他能够推行全国性议程。

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore drove up a big margin in his re-election victory, pointing to a budget surplus and a drop in violent crime on his watch. He has clashed with Trump over federal funding but has remained coy on whether he would run for president. As chairman of the National Governors Association, Moore has a ready-made perch allowing him to pursue a national agenda.

众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(民主党-纽约州)可能是2027年最大的变数。作为一颗进步派新星和草根筹款巨头,奥卡西奥-科尔特斯吸引关注的能力在党内鲜有人能及(试想她在社交媒体上发帖谈论冻卵一事)。她身着水牛城比尔队连帽衫现身纽约州北部竞选造势,引发了关于她可能挑战参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默的猜测,后者将于2028年面临连任。

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) could be the biggest wild card in 2027. A progressive star and grassroots fundraising powerhouse, Ocasio-Cortez can generate attention like few others in the party (recall her social-media posts about freezing her eggs). Her campaign stops in upstate New York (in a Buffalo Bills hoodie, no less), stirred speculation she may challenge Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, who faces re-election in 2028.

众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(民主党-纽约州)(Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/ZUMA Press)Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/ZUMA Press)

但她在全国各地的集会活动清楚地表明,为何她被视为佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯在党内左翼的继承人。她的决定将改变这场竞选的格局。

But her rallies around the country made clear why she is viewed as the heir to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders among the party’s left. Her decision will alter the race.

在参议院,多位议员正在考虑角逐2028年大选,预计他们将充分利用针对特朗普政府的高调听证会和调查。

In the Senate, several lawmakers are considering 2028 bids and look for them to make the most of high-profile hearings and investigations into the Trump administration.

奥索夫的佐治亚州同僚、参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克在南卡罗来纳州、内华达州和新罕布什尔州等早期初选州,以及整个南部地区进行了竞选活动。作为亚特兰大历史悠久的埃比尼泽浸信会教堂的资深牧师,他在民主党政治中拥有无与伦比的黑人教会人脉网络。

Ossoff’s Georgia colleague, Sen. Raphael Warnock, campaigned in early primary states like South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, and across the South, and as the senior pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, he has a built-in network in Black churches unmatched in Democratic politics.

亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利的助手表示,他在中期选举周期中为民主党在23个州进行了竞选造势,同时协助筹集了超过1500万美元用于夺回多数席位的努力。他的军旅生涯和宇航员经历——加上他与妻子、前众议员加比·吉福兹共同在枪支安全方面的倡导工作(吉福兹在2011年遭遇暗杀未遂和大规模枪击案后幸存)——将使他在任何竞选中拥有独特的角色。

Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona campaigned in 23 states for Democrats during the midterm election cycle, his aides said, while helping raise more than $15 million for efforts to win back the majority. His military service and time as an astronaut—along with his advocacy work on gun safety alongside his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived a 2011 assassination attempt and mass shooting—would give him a unique role in any campaign.

他的亚利桑那州同僚、参议员鲁本·加列戈于10月推出了详细的经济议程,并拥有军旅生涯和童年贫困的动人故事。“我依然面临数学难题——三个孩子,只有一个爸爸——我得先解决这个问题,”加列戈本周表示。

His Arizona colleague, Sen. Ruben Gallego, rolled out a detailed economic agenda in October, and offers a compelling story of military service and childhood poverty. “I still have the math problem—which is, three kids, only one dad—and I have to figure that out first,” Gallego said this week.

密歇根州参议员埃莉莎·斯洛特金曾协助埃尔-赛义德竞选参议员,并主张民主党面临的选择不是“温和派对进步派”,而是“战斗还是逃跑”,强调必须挑战特朗普,捍卫民主制度和中产阶级经济利益。作为一名拥有国家安全背景的女性,她在以男性为主的竞争者行列中可能脱颖而出。

Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan helped El-Sayed’s Senate bid and has argued the party faces a choice not among “moderate vs. progressive” but “fight vs. flight,” highlighting the need to challenge Trump and protect democratic institutions and middle-class economics. As a woman with a national security background, she could stand out in a field dominated by men.

新泽西州参议员科里·布克曾参加2020年总统竞选,刚刚赢得连任,他宣布将于11月两度前往南卡罗来纳州,这是他可能再次竞选总统的强烈信号。加利福尼亚州众议员罗·卡纳(民主党人)是众议院主要进步派人物,扎根于摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州,已组建名为“Run Ro”的总统竞选草拟委员会,如果奥卡西奥-科尔特斯选择竞选参议员而非总统,他可能受益。如果AOC不参选,马里兰州参议员克里斯·范霍伦(民主党人)也可能在进步派赛道上加入角逐。

Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, a 2020 presidential candidate who just won re-election, announced two return trips to South Carolina in November, a strong indicator that he may mount another presidential campaign. Rep. Ro Khanna (D., Calif.), a leading House progressive with roots in battleground Pennsylvania, already has a draft presidential committee—called “Run Ro”—and could benefit if Ocasio-Cortez chooses a Senate campaign over a presidential one. And Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), could also be in the mix in the progressive lane, if AOC doesn’t run.

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