亚洲领导人不再惧怕“被削弱”的特朗普Asia’s leaders no longer fear wrath of ‘weakened’ Trump

Asian leaders view Donald Trump as wounded by his election defeat but are unlikely to show that in public, analysts say Credit Reuters/Kylie Cooper Phelim Kine 8:00pm GMT When Donald Trump flies to Asia this week, he will encounter an unfamiliar dynamic: foreign leaders who see him as a weakened force after the US Republicans’ historic midterms defeat.

Mr Trump travels to Manila on Monday for the Association of Southeastern Asian Nations (Asean) summit, then to Shenzhen, China, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) leaders’ summit.

At both meetings, he will be in talks with countries battered by his aggressive tariffs and investment deals.

They include South Korea, where Mr Trump has threatened to curtail US military exercises because he feels Seoul has been too slow to deliver a $350bn (£265bn) investment pledge. ‘Keeping options open’India is still bristling from the 50 per cent tariffs Mr Trump imposed after its trade deal with the US fell apart last year, although the US eased the reciprocal tariff on most Indian imports to 18 per cent in February.

Asian leaders “will deal with him cautiously but keep their options open”, an Asian diplomat said, adding: “They may still see a relationship with the US as important, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll follow Trump’s lead.”The difference, say some familiar with pre-summit discussions in Asian capitals, is that foreign countries are no longer as afraid of Mr Trump’s wrath.

Opposition to Donald Trump is already on show on the streets of the Philippines in advance of the US president’s arrival for the Asean summit Anadolu via Getty Images/Daniel Ceng Fear of tariffs export restrictions, US troop withdrawals, humiliation in an Oval Office encounter and even – for Canada and Greenland at least – the threat of US military invasion, have eased since the midterms loss.

And his Asia trip may provide the first hints of the degree to which foreign leaders see him as shuffling toward the exit rather than dominating the world stage.

Asian leaders are “pretty astute observers of power”, said Kurt Tong, former principal deputy assistant secretary for economic and business affairs at the US state department in the Obama administration.

Mr Tong, who continues to meet Asian policymakers frequently in his role as managing partner at the Asia Group, a Washington consultancy, added: “They will view the president as somewhat weakened now.”A second Asian diplomat said foreign leaders “no longer feel as intimidated by him”. However, the White House rejected suggestions that Asian leaders will see Mr Trump as diminished.

“President Trump has effectively restored American strength on the global stage and strengthened relationships with world leaders,” Anna Kelly, a White House spokesman, said in a statement.

Activists in the Philippines are demonstrating against Donald Trump for his involvement in the Pax Silica global supply initiative for AI, militarisation of the Asia-Pacific region, and conflicts in the Middle East A third Washington-based Asian diplomat said their country had less appetite to enter into agreements with Mr Trump, with the hope that they could wait for a new administration in 2028.

“There’ll be less enthusiasm for making deals with the Trump administration,” the diplomat said. The source said they expected fewer deals between governments and more business-to-business agreements with Mr Trump “using whatever is left of his standing to connect companies and investors”.

Mr Trump has sealed trade deals with most Asian countries, with the notable exceptions of India and Vietnam, but wants US allies and partners to invest in infrastructure and manufacturing projects as part of his America First trade policy.

He has been pushing Asian countries, including South Korea and Japan, to invest in a multibillion-dollar Alaska pipeline that would include a terminal for natural gas exports to Asian customers.

Power dynamic shifts towards China The US president will meet Xi Jinping in Shenzhen and Beijing is well aware that the power dynamics in the relationship between the two leaders have shifted in China’s favour.

“The Chinese are already thinking about what comes next, more than about how to manage Trump,” said Jonathan Czin, a former CIA analyst on China. He added that Beijing would “mollify Trump and string him along” to maintain the status quo.

However, The America’s Asian allies are still expected to pump up Mr Trump in public, rather than risk the backlash that could come from highlighting the president’s domestic woes.

Foreign leaders “won’t want to provoke him … by making it obvious that he’s irrelevant”, said Yuki Tatsumi, a former special assistant for political affairs at the Japanese embassy in Washington.

The third diplomat said colleagues in their country’s foreign ministry, recognising that Mr Trump retains significant executive power that extends to foreign relations regardless of the midterm results, were still pushing to put senior officials in front of the US president and his team this week.

“We’ve asked for our foreign minister to meet with Secretary of State [Marco] Rubio at Apec and for a meeting between Trump and our head of government on the sidelines of either Asean or Apec,” the diplomat said.

Mr Trump can also expect the usual red-carpet treatment from foreign officials in Manila and Shenzhen as he outlines an agenda that includes sealing “commercial deals and strategic investments that strengthen American security and prosperity”, Olivia Wales, a White House spokesman, said on Friday.

And the president is likely to win at least measured support for initiatives including the greater defence co-ordination between the US and South-East Asian countries that Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defence, proposed last month.

Foreign leaders at the meetings in Manila and China “will be tiptoeing around Trump as they look ahead,” said Jane Hardy, a former leader of the Australian embassy’s congressional office in Washington. “They will be strategising how to manage him and his White House while focusing on those congressional players that can help them through the remainder of Trump’s presidency.”Asia ready to woo Democrats Embassies in Washington are already gearing up to lobby Democrats, soon to be in control of the House and Senate, to support initiatives ranging from limiting Mr Trump’s tariffs and restoring US support for Ukraine, to curbing the president’s ability to wage war without congressional approval.

The hope among American allies, battered by the administration’s aggressive trade and foreign policies, is that the Democratic congressional majority will check some of those excesses.

Piper Campbell, former head of the US mission to Asean in Jakarta, Indonesia, said Asian policymakers kept asking her “what steps a Democratic Congress might take to put some curbs on the president’s foreign policy powers”, while she was in the region following the midterms.

Some Asian countries may try to exploit the midterms loss and the possibility of two years of political trench warfare between the president and a Democratic-majority Congress by slow-walking commitments they’ve made under trade and investment deals with the Trump administration.

Mr Trump routinely touts nearly $20tn (£15tn) in investment pledges from foreign countries as an achievement of his second term.

The administration suspects that South Korea is already doing just that by delaying decisions on what projects Seoul will fund with the $350bn it pledged last year to invest in the US.

Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, said last month that he would rather negotiate with the next US president than seal a bad trade deal with Mr Trump.

Asian leaders “may be thinking that there are areas where they felt a lot of pressure from Trump, and now they have an ability to very quietly and carefully wait him out,” said Scot Marciel, former principal deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the Obama administration.