
利尼·桑德斯(Linley Sanders)、莎拉·简·特里布尔(Sarah Jane Tribble)、阿里·斯旺森(Ali Swenson)、法蒂玛·侯赛因(Fatima Hussein)、美联社、KFF健康新闻华盛顿--唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统全面镇压移民一年多来,一项民意调查发现,该国农村地区的选民对这些移民政策是否使其社区受益或损害存在分歧。
LINLEY SANDERS, SARAH JANE TRIBBLE, ALI SWENSON, FATIMA HUSSEIN, ASSOCIATED PRESS, KFF Health News WASHINGTON — More than a year into President Donald Trump’s sweeping immigration crackdown, a poll finds that voters in rural parts of the country are divided on whether those immigration policies have benefited or harmed their communities.
在美联社和KFF 8月份对2,000多名农村选民进行的调查中,大约三分之一的人表示特朗普政府的移民执法对他们的社区是积极的,大约三分之一的人表示是负面的。其余大约十分之三的人表示没有影响。
In The Associated Press-KFF survey of more than 2,000 rural voters in August, about a third said the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement had been positive for their community and about a third said it had been negative. The remaining 3 in 10, roughly, said it had no impact.
特朗普承诺在2024年的竞选活动中严格执行,该调查凸显了他的基础--他的“让美国再次伟大”运动的农村支持者--特别有可能表示,他们看到了共和党总统严格的移民政策给他们居住的地方带来的好处。
Trump promised tough enforcement on the campaign trail in 2024, and the survey highlights how a cornerstone of his base, rural supporters of his Make America Great Again movement, are especially likely to say they see a benefit where they live from the Republican president’s stringent immigration policies .
然而,许多农村选民也表示,移民是当地经济的关键组成部分,一些人认为特朗普的移民行动太过分了。
Yet many rural voters also say immigrants are a key part of their local economies, and some believe Trump’s immigration actions have gone too far.
2024年投票给特朗普的37岁农民劳拉·利·泰勒(Laura Leigh Taylor)表示,她不赞成特朗普大范围的移民镇压,这导致一位朋友勤劳的父亲被驱逐出境。
Laura Leigh Taylor, a 37-year-old farmer who voted for Trump in 2024, said she disapproves of the wide-ranging scope of Trump’s immigration crackdown, which resulted in a friend’s hardworking father being deported.
“我理解除掉强奸犯和杀人犯,”她说。“但所有介于两者之间的人除了照顾家人之外,实际上什么也没做。”泰勒现在后悔投票给特朗普。作为佐治亚州史密斯维尔(一个约有600人的小镇)的居民,泰勒认为她将在11月投票给民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫,因为她说,民主党一直在谈论因特朗普移民执法而被连根拔起的家庭。“就因为这个简单的事实,我就和他一起去,”泰勒说。
“I understand getting rid of the rapists and the murderers,” she said. “But all the people that fell in between that really weren’t doing nothing but taking care of their family.”Taylor now regrets her vote for Trump. As a resident of Smithville, Georgia, a town of about 600, Taylor thinks she will vote for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November because, she said, the Democrats have been the ones talking about families being uprooted by Trump’s immigration enforcement.
大约四分之三的农村选民表示,中期候选人谈论移民“极其”或“非常”重要,尽管这低于希望他们解决生活成本、政府项目欺诈或医疗费用问题的比例。
“Just because of that simple fact, I’m going to go with him,” Taylor said.
农村选民并不绝大多数认为特朗普的移民政策对他们的社区有帮助,但他们也不太可能比公众说特朗普的努力越界,他的努力涉及大规模驱逐和迅速将移民驱逐到没有关系的国家。
Roughly three-quarters of rural voters say it’s “extremely” or “very” important for midterm candidates to talk about immigration, though that’s lower than the share who want them to address the cost of living , fraud in government programs or healthcare costs .
只有大约十分之四的农村选民表示特朗普在限制合法移民或未经授权驱逐居住在美国的移民方面“做得太过分”,低于9月份AP-NORC民意调查中持同样观点的美国成年人的55%。
Rural voters don’t overwhelmingly think Trump’s immigration policies have helped their communities, but they are also less likely than the general public to say that Trump has overstepped in his efforts, which have involved mass deportations and rapid deportations of immigrants to countries where they have no ties.
来自肯塔基州利伯蒂的55岁约翰·托马斯支持特朗普驱逐无合法身份者的努力。托马斯在2008年背部受伤后刚刚获得残疾福利,他认为这给医疗保健系统带来了太大的负担。他说,监管移民是为美国人提供更好医疗保健的一种手段。
Only about 4 in 10 rural voters say Trump has “gone too far” in restricting legal immigration or deporting immigrants living in the U.S. without authorization, below the 55% of U.S. adults overall who said the same in a September AP-NORC poll. John Thomas, a 55-year-old from Liberty, Kentucky, supports Trump’s efforts to deport people without legal status . Thomas, who has just been approved for disability benefits after injuring his back in 2008, believes they put too much of a burden on the healthcare system.
“他们一直在夺走每个人的东西,”托马斯谈到移民时说道。“真正需要这些东西的人却因为他们而得不到它。”哈佛医学院医疗保健政策教授大卫·格拉博夫斯基表示,研究表明,移民使用的医疗保健少于本土出生的美国人。他说:“很难说他们给系统带来了不必要的负担。”因为许多移民从事医疗保健工作并纳税。
Regulating immigration, he said, is a means of providing better healthcare to Americans. “They’ve been taking from everybody,” Thomas said of immigrants. “People that really need this stuff can’t get it because of them.”David Grabowski, a professor of healthcare policy at Harvard Medical School, said that research suggests immigrants use less healthcare than native-born Americans. “It is hard to argue that they are placing an undue burden on the system,” he said, because many immigrants work in healthcare and pay taxes.
移民通常在维持当地工业方面发挥关键作用,包括填补制造业、医疗保健和农业的就业岗位。调查显示,绝大多数农村选民将合法进入该国的移民视为当地经济的重要组成部分。
Immigrants often play key roles in sustaining local industries, including by filling jobs in manufacturing, healthcare and agriculture. The survey suggests the vast majority of rural voters see immigrants in the country legally as an important part of their local economies.
雪城大学政策研究中心主任兼农村社会学学会主席香农·蒙纳特表示,移民一直是美国大部分农村地区的人口生命线。她说,多年来,农村地区一直在失去年轻人。
Shannon Monnat, director of the Center for Policy Research at Syracuse University and president of the Rural Sociological Society, said immigration has been a demographic lifeline for much of rural America. Rural areas have been losing young adults for years, she said.
蒙纳特说:“对于许多小镇来说,移民是学校和医院保持开放且该县没有缩小的原因。”
“For a lot of small towns, immigrants are the reason the school and hospital stayed open and the county didn’t shrink,” Monnat said.
大约十分之七的农村选民认为合法进入该国的移民对当地经济“非常”或“有些”重要,同样比例的选民对临时或季节性农业工人也持同样的看法。每年有数十万移民在美国农场从事季节性工作,其中大多数来自墨西哥,持H-2A签证。
About 7 in 10 rural voters see immigrants who are in the country legally as “very” or “somewhat” important to their local economies, and a similar share say the same about temporary or seasonal agriculture workers. Hundreds of thousands of immigrants take seasonal jobs on U.S. farms each year, with most of them coming from Mexico, on H-2A visas.
民意调查发现,与农业有关的农村选民比没有农业有关的选民更有可能表示临时工或季节性工人对当地经济“非常重要”。
Rural voters with a connection to agriculture and farming are more likely than those without one to say that temporary or seasonal workers are “very important” to their local economies, the poll found.
56岁的共和党水力爆破手和真空技术员杰夫·米勒(Jeff Miller)对特朗普的议程基本上感到满意,他相信事情正在“朝着正确的方向发展”。米勒一直在努力应对的一件事是特朗普激进的移民政策,他将一位“非常优秀的工人”和朋友驱逐出境归咎于这一政策,该人在工作许可证到期后被驱逐出美国。
Jeff Miller, a 56-year-old Republican hydro blaster and vacuum technician, has mostly been pleased with Trump’s agenda, and he believes things are “heading in the right direction.”The one thing Miller has struggled with is Trump’s aggressive immigration policy, which he blames for the deportation of a “really good worker” and friend, who was removed from the U.S. when his work permit expired.
来自俄亥俄州拉辛的米勒说,他将支持对努力工作者的例外,或者只是一种不那么激进的方法。
Miller, from Racine, Ohio, said he would support exceptions for hard workers, or just a less aggressive approach.
米勒说:“这是一种起起落落的事情,因为我为此失去了一个非常好的朋友。”
“There’s kind of an up-and-down thing because I lost a really good friend over that,” Miller said.
农村选民不太可能说非法移民是有益的,但45%的人说他们至少对当地经济“有点”重要。
Rural voters are much less likely to say immigrants who are in the country illegally are beneficial, but 45% say they are at least “somewhat” important to local economies.
来自得克萨斯州圣地亚哥的70岁民主党人阿尔伯特·马丁内斯(Albert Martinez)在2016年投票支持特朗普,但他现在认为特朗普政府已经“失控”。这位陆军老兵说,他是让罪犯离开这个国家的支持者,但这不是他所看到的当前移民执法的情况。
Albert Martinez, a 70-year-old Democrat from San Diego, Texas, voted for Trump in 2016, but he now believes the Trump administration has “gone amok.”The Army veteran said he is a proponent of getting criminals out of the country, but that is not what he is seeing happening with current immigration enforcement.
马丁内斯说:“他们开始对所有人进行全面检查。”“无辜的孩子和妇女,在餐馆工作的人,在酒店工作的人,建造房屋的人,做砖石工作的人,以及无辜的,善良的,纳税的人。纳税人这太疯狂了。”特朗普的一些最忠实的支持者--自认为是MAGA支持者的农村共和党人--认为特朗普移民政策受益的可能性大约是农村非MAGA共和党人的两倍。
“They started doing everybody across the board,” Martinez said. “Innocent kids and women, people who work in restaurants, people who work in hotels, people who are building homes, people who are doing masonry work, and innocent, good, taxpaying people. Taxpayers. It’s insane.”Some of Trump’s most loyal supporters — rural Republicans who consider themselves MAGA supporters — are about twice as likely as rural, non-MAGA Republicans to see a benefit to Trump’s immigration policies where they live.
大约十分之四的农村选民认为自己是MAGA共和党人,而大约十分之一的农村选民是共和党人,但不是MAGA的支持者。
Roughly 4 in 10 rural voters identify as MAGA Republicans, while about 1 in 10 are Republicans but not MAGA supporters.
大约三分之二的农村MAGA共和党人表示,特朗普的移民政策对他们居住的地方产生了积极影响。大约一半的人表示,特朗普政府在非法驱逐该国移民方面“做得还不够”,而大约一半的人表示,他的行为“大致正确”。
About two-thirds of rural MAGA Republicans say Trump’s immigration policies have had a positive impact where they live. Roughly half say the Trump administration has “not gone far enough” on deporting immigrants in the country illegally, while about half say his actions have been “about right.”
支持MAGA运动的27岁共和党人凯瑟琳·里德(Katherine Reed)很高兴看到特朗普政府的驱逐政策得到实施。德克萨斯州芒特普莱森特的居民相信,她的社区一直很安全,但政府的政策通过减少全国范围内的暴力犯罪产生了积极影响,她说:“这让人们的生活更加安全。”
Katherine Reed, a 27-year-old Republican who supports the MAGA movement, has been pleased to see the Trump administration’s deportation policies play out. The resident of Mount Pleasant, Texas, believes her community has always been safe but that the administration’s policies have had a positive impact by reducing violent crime nationwide, saying, “It’s made life for people a lot safer.”
她认为,如果有人来到美国,他们应该“尊重当地法律”并“合法行事”。
She believes if someone comes to America, they should “respect the law of the land” and “do it legally.”
“我希望真正了不起的人成为美国人,”里德说。“这就是美国的全部意义。”这项民意调查于2026年8月12日至24日对2,241名在该国农村地区投票的美国成年人进行,使用的样本来自基于概率的SSRS意见小组。完整样本的抽样误差幅度为正负3个百分点。KFF研究人员与美联社合作,致力于设计调查样本和调查问卷,分析和报告调查结果。
“I want really amazing people to become Americans,” Reed said. “That’s the whole point of America.”The poll of 2,241 U.S. adultsed to vote in rural areas of the country was conducted Aug. 12-24, 2026, using a sample drawn from the probability-based SSRS Opinion Panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In collaboration with AP, KFF researchers worked to design the survey sample and questionnaire, analyze and report findings.
本报告是美联社和KFF健康新闻合作撰写的。KFF健康新闻是一家全国性新闻编辑室,制作有关健康问题的深入新闻,也是KFF(卫生政策研究、民意调查和新闻的独立来源)的核心运营项目之一。
This report is a collaboration between The Associated Press and KFF Health News. KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling and journalism.