中国的税收打压给奢侈品牌带来压力，美国消费放缓作者：Tassilo Hummel 和 Sophie Yu巴黎/北京，10月9日 - 中国对富裕个人的税收打压已成为奢侈品牌的最新烦恼，这些品牌正面临伊朗战争的后果以及美国消费者支出放缓的迹象。
China's tax crackdown piles pressure on luxury brands as US spending falters By Tassilo Hummel and Sophie Yu PARIS/BEIJING, Oct 9 - China's tax crackdown on wealthy individuals has become the latest headache for luxury brands, already grappling with the fallout from the Iran war and signs of slowing consumer spending in the United States.
这些挑战的叠加可能会对下周公布的第三季度业绩造成压力，加剧人们对价值3500亿美元的奢侈品行业的担忧——该行业已陷入三年低迷，可能难以恢复昔日的增长势头。
The combination of challenges is likely to weigh on third-quarter results due from next week, reinforcing fears that the $350 billion luxury sector, mired in a three-year slowdown, may struggle to regain its former momentum.
LVMH和爱马仕（Birkin包制造商）的股价今年均下跌约40%，接近多年低点，而古驰母公司开云（Kering）股价下跌29%，反映出投资者对该行业日益悲观的预期。
Shares in LVMH and Birkin bag maker Hermes are both down about 40% this year and trading near multi-year lows, while Gucci owner Kering has fallen 29%, reflecting growing investor pessimism about the sector.
根据北京的新税收规定，曾通过离岸信托隐藏资产的富裕中国人须在10月22日前申报并补缴多年未纳税款，这一举措可能会抑制该行业最重要市场之一的消费。
Under Beijing's new tax rules, wealthy Chinese who used offshore trusts to shelter assets have until October 22 to declare and pay years of back taxes, a move that threatens to curb spending in one of the industry's most important markets.
中国消费者占全球奢侈品购买的约五分之一，长期以来一直是该行业增长的主要动力。然而，自新冠疫情以来，需求出现了急剧下降。
Chinese consumers, who account for roughly a fifth of global luxury purchases, were long the driving force behind the sector's growth. Demand has weakened sharply, however, since the COVID pandemic.
上海奢侈品咨询公司Trinity Asia负责人Alexis Bonhomme表示，20%的税率正在冲击超高净值人群的消费——这一群体此前曾表现出比受中国长期房地产低迷影响的中产阶级消费者更强的韧性。"在缴税截止日期前，一些人可能会面临流动性问题，"Bonhomme说。"这并不意味着他们不会重新开始消费，但目前，消费意愿显然不足，"他补充道。
The 20% levy is hitting spending by ultra-high-net-worth individuals, a group that had until recently proved more resilient than middle-class consumers hurt by China's prolonged property downturn, said Alexis Bonhomme, head of Shanghai-based luxury consultancy Trinity Asia. "Until the deadline to pay the tax, some people may face liquidity issues", Bonhomme said. "This doesn't mean they won't start buying again, but right now, the mood just isn't there," he added.
伯恩斯坦分析师在一份报告中指出，中国大陆夏季购物中心的数据显示"增长出现急剧放缓"。
Summer shopping mall data in mainland China pointed to "a sharp deceleration in growth", Bernstein analysts said in a note.
两位熟悉中国内地第三季度商场销售情况的行业消息人士称，尽管各品牌表现差异显著，但整体形势依然疲软。他们表示，像羊绒品牌Brunello Cuccinelli和LVMH旗下Loro Piana这样规模较小的“低调奢华”品牌，表现优于路易威登和古驰等更为高调的品牌。
Two industry sources familiar with third-quarter mall trading in mainland China said overall conditions remained weak, although performance varied widely between brands. Smaller "quiet luxury" labels such as cashmere specialist Brunello Cuccinelli and LVMH's Loro Piana were outperforming more conspicuous brands such as Louis Vuitton and Gucci, they said.
中国市场的担忧情绪出现之际，美国——奢侈品行业最大的市场，也是直到最近才因科技驱动的股票市场上涨而成为行业亮点之一——的需求也显现出疲软迹象。“削弱所有人的信心”花旗银行追踪的美国奢侈品信用卡消费数据表明，8月份已连续第三个月下降，反映出更广泛的消费者信心正在减弱。这一数据出现在多项调查显示美国民众对经济前景日益担忧的背景下，而中期选举也即将举行。
The concerns in China come as demand also shows signs of softening in the US, the luxury industry's largest market and, until recently, one of its brightest spots thanks to a tech-driven stock market rally. 'UNDERMINE CONFIDENCE FOR EVERYONE' US credit card spending on luxury goods, tracked by Citi, fell for a third consecutive month in August as broader consumer confidence weakened. The data followed surveys showing growing unease about the US economy ahead of the midterm elections.
开云集团此前已警告分析师，预计古驰业务将进一步收缩，这促使多家券商下调其股价目标。
Kering has already warned analysts to expect a further contraction at Gucci, prompting a string of brokerages to cut their stock price targets.
为数不多的亮点之一则是高端珠宝市场。例如瑞士瑞表集团旗下的卡地亚品牌从中受益，因为富裕消费者越来越青睐黄金和其他贵金属，认为这些材料具有更持久的价值。
One of the few bright spots has been high-end jewellery. Brands such as Richemont's Cartier have benefited as wealthy consumers increasingly favour gold and other precious materials, which are viewed as offering more enduring value.
在北京市中心，51岁的陶瓷建筑构件出口商邓琪预测，今年的奢侈品消费将比往年减少20%。他表示，海外征税措施已经传递出明确信号。
In downtown Beijing, Deng Qi, a 51-year-old exporter of ceramic building components, forecast 20% less spending on luxury goods than in previous years. The offshore tax measure, he said, had sent a clear message.
“我认为那些海外信托资产需缴税的富裕人群不会停止购买奢侈品，他们并不缺少那几万元钱，”他说，“真正的问题在于更广泛的影响，这类措施会削弱所有人的信心。迟早，他们也会将目光转向相对富裕的人群。”投资者将于下周首次了解该行业的最新情况，届时LVMH将于周一公布业绩。分析师预计其季度销售额将达到185亿欧元（207亿美元），同比增长1%。开云集团和爱马仕则将于10月22日公布业绩。
"I don't think wealthy people who are subject to taxes on offshore trusts would stop buying luxury, they are not short of that few tens of thousands of yuan," he said. "The real issue is the broader impact, measures like that undermine confidence for everyone. Sooner or later they will set their eyes on the relatively rich." Investors will get their first read on the sector next week when LVMH reports results on Monday. Analysts expect quarterly sales of €18.5 billion ($20.7 billion), up 1% from a year earlier. Kering and Hermes report on October 22.