约旦河西岸在数十年的定居点建设后，如今有近60万以色列人。 以色列，负责报道中东战争、恐怖主义、以色列政治以及巴勒斯坦领土的生活。北京时间5:00优素福·贾巴林有着一个人的气质：他知道自己到底想要什么，却又不太清楚自己身处何地。
The West Bank has nearly 600,000 Israelis after decades of settlement Credit Getty Images/ZAIN JAAFAR Henry Bodkin Jerusalem Correspondent, in Haifa Show biography Based in Israel, Henry reports on the war in the Middle East, terrorism, Israeli politics and life in the Palestinian territories 5:00am BST Yousef Jabareen has the air of a man who knows exactly what he wants, yet does not quite know where he is.
他迟到35分钟才到达海法一家时尚的阿拉伯餐厅，边走边快速低声地在手机里说话，随后 soupir 一下坐下，并示意要咖啡。
He arrives in the modish Arab restaurant in Haifa 35 minutes late, speaking quickly and quietly into his phone, before sitting down with a sigh and gesturing for coffee.
他解释说，自己刚刚驱车穿越了以色列北部的宽度，途中曾在拿撒勒停下来接受当地媒体的早餐前采访。
He has just driven the width of northern Israel he explains, having stopped for a pre-breakfast interview with local media in Nazareth en route.
在接受《每日电讯报》采访之后，他将录制一档播客——“某个地方，我不确定具体在哪里”，随后前往他家乡乌姆法赫姆附近的一个露天公开会议场地，该地靠近约旦河西岸，晚上还将参加两场婚礼。
After speaking to The Telegraph, he will record a podcast, “somewhere else, I’m not sure where”, then it’s on to an open-air public meeting near his home town of Umm al-Fahm, next to the West Bank, followed by two weddings in the evening.
“我喜欢婚礼，”他微笑着说，笑容很淡。“它们不是正式的竞选活动。但你看……这是一次选举。你可以接触到如此多的人。”这就是以色列最著名的阿拉伯政治家之一在世代罕见的关键性大选前夕的繁忙日程安排。
“I like weddings,” he says with the faintest of smiles. “They are not formal campaign events. But look ... it’s an election. You can reach so many people.”Such is the hectic daily schedule of one of Israel’s most prominent Arab politicians in the run-up to arguably the most consequential general election in a generation A legal scholar who trained and lectured in the US, Mr Jabareen is head of the Joint List, one of two formal groupings of Arab-Israeli parties standing on Oct 27.
作为一名在美国受训并曾任教的法律学者，贾巴林先生是联合名单的负责人，而联合名单是阿拉伯-以色列政党在10月27日参选的两个正式联盟之一。优素福·贾巴林在特拉维夫的希伯来语竞选启动活动上埃亚尔·瓦尔沙夫斯基，《每日电讯报》摄这位54岁的政治家尽管出身于他看来从未如此被国家边缘化的社群，却可能掌握以色列的未来。
Yousef Jabareen at a Hebrew campaign launch event in Tel Aviv Eyal Warshavsky for The Telegraph The 54-year-old could well hold Israel’s future in his hands, despite hailing from a community which, in his view, has never been so marginalised by the state.
由于民调预测本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟和反对派阵营都无法在议会中获得多数席位，贾巴林先生可能自己就成为“国王制造者”。
Mr Jabareen could find himself kingmaker because polls predict that neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition nor the opposition bloc will win a majority in the Knesset.
“我们觉得自己在这里拥有很大的力量，一种有影响力的力量，”贾巴林先生说。
“We feel we have a lot of power here, an influential power,” Mr Jabareen says.
这是他打算行使的权力，用于推动他社区的民生议题，但也涉及更广泛的问题，比如未来巴勒斯坦国的建立，无论是否独立于以色列。
It is a power he intends to wield to push bread-and-butter issues for his community, but also far broader questions such as the establishment of a future Palestinian state, whether independent of Israel or not.
在一次采访中，贾巴林先生表示，巴勒斯坦人民并不坚持两国方案，如果以色列以全面投票权作为回报，他们愿意接受以色列对约旦河西岸的完全主权。
In an interview, Mr Jabareen said the Palestinian people were not wedded to a two-state solution and would accept full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank if they received full voting rights in return.
他说，约旦河西岸可以像比利时、瑞士或加拿大一样运作，这些国家正式承认两个不同的民族，并赋予他们平等权利。
He said the West Bank could function like Belgium, Switzerland or Canada, bi-national states that formally recognise two different peoples and give them equal rights.
在此之前，投票率是最大的挑战。以色列有超过110万阿拉伯以色列选民，占选民总数的17%，在比例代表制下是一个强大的人口群体。但在上次选举中，近一半人选择在家不投票。
Before that, turnout is the big challenge. There are more than 1.1 million Arab-Israeli voters, 17 per cent of the electorate, a powerful demographic in a system of proportional representation. But at the last election, nearly half stayed at home.
“我们必须在接下来的几天里非常努力地工作，以提高[投票率]，他说。“希望能达到大约65%，也许70%。”那么，他将传递什么信息来动员社区投票？
“We must work very hard in the coming days to raise [turnout],” he says. “Hopefully to something around 65 per cent, maybe 70.”So, what messages is he putting out to galvanise his community to vote?
“反映现实的信息，”他直言不讳地回答。“现实是，在内塔尼亚胡、本-格维尔、斯莫特里奇政府下，这已经是一个非常严酷的时期，”他补充道，点名了自2022年以来的极端民族主义国家安全和财政部长。
“The messages that reflect the reality,” he answers bluntly. “The reality is that this has been a very harsh period under the Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich government,” he adds, naming the ultra-nationalist national security and finance ministers since 2022.
民调预测，本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟将无法在议会获得多数席位。路透社/罗嫩·兹武伦 在现任政府下，阿拉伯人占多数的城镇的公共资金已被削减，他说，而对这些社区的警务实际上已被伊塔马尔·本-格维尔撤回。
Polls predict that Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition will not win a majority in the Knesset REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun Under the current administration, public funding for Arab-majority towns has been cut, he says, while policing of those communities has effectively been withdrawn by Itamar Ben-Gvir.
这与谋杀率的激增相关联，贾巴林先生将其描述为极右翼的“控制工具”。
This has correlated with a surge in murder rates, which Mr Jabareen describes as a far-Right “tool of control”.
与此同时，正如他自己所说，由于定居点众多，他在约旦河西岸实现了一场革命。贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇最近公布了一项计划，旨在通过促进犹太人发展和限制阿拉伯人建设来“犹太化”以色列阿拉伯人口较多的地区。
Meanwhile, having achieved, in his own words, a revolution in the West Bank because of the many settlements, Bezalel Smotrich recently published a plan to “Judaise” the parts of Israel that have significant Arab populations, by boosting Jewish development and restricting building by Arabs.
这一切发生在哈马斯领导的10月7日大屠杀之后，该事件导致超过1200名以色列人死亡。这场暴行重新点燃了各社区之间的深层不信任，而在以色列犹太人方面，也引发了对和平前景的怀疑。
All of this has taken place in the aftermath of the Oct 7 massacre of more than 1,200 Israelis led by Hamas, an atrocity which reawoke deep distrust between communities and, on the part of Jewish Israelis, scepticism over the chances of peace.
当被问及内塔尼亚胡是否可能继续执政——或许在重新选举之前担任看守总理时，贾巴林似乎脸色发白。
Asked about the prospects that Mr Netanyahu could cling on, perhaps as a caretaker prime minister before repeat elections, Mr Jabareen seems to blanch.
“我不想去想它，”他说。“我们的首要任务是摆脱现任政府。”但怎么做呢？他是否会将预计将有8到10名成员的联合名单议员加入到“变革”联盟中，该联盟可能由前以色列国防军参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导，以帮助其超过多数门槛？鉴于贾巴林对现政府的绝望，这似乎是个不需要动脑的选择。但现实，正如他所解释的，更为复杂。
“I don’t want to think about it,” he says. “Our top priority is to get rid of the current government.”But how? Would he add his Joint List members of Knesset, predicted to number between eight and 10, to those of the “change” coalition, probably headed by Gadi Eisenkot the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, to help it cross the majority threshold? Given Mr Jabareen’s despair with the current administration, that would seem to be a no-brainer. But the reality, he explains, is more complicated.
就像以色列的大多数阿拉伯公民一样——也就是说，那些居住在国际公认的1967年边界内的人——联合名单领导人也认为自己是巴勒斯坦人，这一称号适用于居住在约旦河西岸、东耶路撒冷和加沙的阿拉伯人。
As with most Arab citizens of Israel – that is, those who live within the country’s internationally recognised 1967 borders – the Joint List leader also considers himself to be a Palestinian, the designation for Arabs who live in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza.
因此，从他们的角度以及国际社会很大一部分人的观点来看，正式参与一个被视为非法占领这些领土的政府在政治上是敏感的。
As such, formally taking part in a government which, in their view and that of much of the international community, illegally occupies those territories is politically sensitive.
另一个主要群体——阿拉伯人名单，也称为Ra’am——曾加入2021-22年的短暂贝内特-拉皮德政府，随后该政府倒台，使内塔尼亚胡重新掌权。
The United Arab List, the other principal grouping, also known as Ra’am, joined the brief Bennett-Lapid government of 2021-22 before it collapsed, allowing Mr Netanyahu back into power.
相比之下，贾巴林的联合名单可能获得是Ra’am两倍的议席，其性质更具民族主义色彩。
By contrast, Mr Jabareen’s Joint List, which may emerge with twice the Knesset seats as Ra’am, is more nationalist in character.
“我很难想象自己会成为一个继续控制加沙和约旦河西岸的联盟的一部分，”他说。
“I find difficulty in seeing ourselves part of a coalition that will continue control over Gaza and the West Bank,” he says.
然而，他表示愿意通过“在外部支持”少数政府的方式，帮助艾森科特进入总理办公室，就像阿拉伯政党在1990年代为前工党总理伊扎克·拉宾所做的那样。但他会提出条件。
However, he is open to the possibility of helping Mr Eisenkot into the prime minister’s office by supporting a minority government “from the outside”, as Arab parties did for Yitzhak Rabin, the former Labour prime minister, in the 1990s. But he will demand a price.
“我们想摆脱这个政府，但不会给出空白支票。我们需要相信存在一个真正的替代方案，”他说。
“We want to get rid of the government, but not to give a bank cheque. We need to believe there is a real alternative,” he said.
对阿拉伯-以色列城镇提供更好的政府资金是他的首要诉求，此外还要求彻底改革警务制度。
Better government funding for Arab-Israeli towns is at the top of his demands, as well as a fundamental overhaul of policing.
在更大的以巴冲突问题上，联合名单将要求艾森科特承诺至少表达愿意讨论“结束占领”，并重新启动与拉马拉的巴勒斯坦权威机构的谈判。
On the bigger question of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Joint List would demand a commitment from Mr Eisenkot to at least express willingness to discuss “ending the occupation” and restarting negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah.
“这并不意味着我们会要求艾森科特在选举第二天就签署承认巴勒斯坦的文件，但我们希望开始对话，”他说。
“It doesn’t mean we will ask Eisenkot to sign the recognition of Palestine the day after the election, but we want to start talking,” he says.
艾森科特可能需要贾巴林的联合名单来赢得多数席位。盖蒂图片社/ILIA YEFIMOVICH 该党的官方政策是众所周知的两国方案：在目前被占领土上建立一个独立的巴勒斯坦。
Mr Eisenkot may need Mr Jabareen’s Joint List to win a majority Getty Images/ILIA YEFIMOVICH Official party policy is the fabled two-state solution: an independent Palestine in what are now the occupied territories.
这是阿拉伯联盟和大多数欧洲国家（包括英国）的正式政策，英国上个月以维护这一目标为名，对以色列定居点实施了备受争议的制裁。从技术上讲，这仍然是美国的政策。
It is the formal policy of the Arab League and most European countries, including Britain, which imposed highly controversial sanctions on Israeli settlements last month in the name of preserving that goal. It is also, technically, still the policy of the US.
然而，自2022年以来加速的定居活动意味着，如今约旦河西岸有近60万以色列人分散在大约150个聚居区中，这些聚居区通过以色列国防军控制的干道相连。自10月7日以来，巴勒斯坦城镇和村庄常常被封锁。
However, decades of settlement, which has accelerated since 2022, mean there are now nearly 600,000 Israelis in the West Bank spread across around 150 conurbations linked by IDF-controlled arterial roads from which, following Oct 7, Palestinian towns and villages are often blocked.
批评者认为，约旦河西岸正在变成一系列孤立的阿拉伯飞地，而不是一个能够成为巴勒斯坦国家心脏地带的连续领土。从实际角度看，两国方案还有可能吗？
In the view of critics, the West Bank is turning into a series of isolated Arab enclaves, rather than a contiguous body of territory that could form the heartland of a Palestinian state. In practical terms, is the two-state solution still possible?
贾巴林停顿了一下，然后说出了一件出人意料的事：“我们并不坚持两国方案。我们说的是，我们接受两国方案。这两种想法之间是有区别的。”“一国方案”有那么一刻，他似乎是在放弃巴勒斯坦自决的理念。
Mr Jabareen pauses, then he says something unexpected: “We don’t insist on the two-state solution. We are saying we accept a two-state solution. There is a difference between the ideas.”‘One-state solution’For a moment, it seems as if he is giving up on the idea of Palestinian self-determination.
但随后，他的真实含义变得清晰起来；而且，这对以色列的未来来说，或许是更为激进的方案。
But then his real meaning becomes clear; and it is arguably far more radical for the future of Israel.
这是一种“一国方案”，即所有被占领的巴勒斯坦领土在形式和法律上都并入以色列国——然而，作为回报，巴勒斯坦人将获得完全的公民权和选举权。
It is a “one-state solution”, in which all the occupied Palestinian territories are formally and legally absorbed into the state of Israel – however, with full civil and voting rights given to Palestinians in return.
贾巴林设想建立一个双民族国家，它作为一个单一的政治实体运作，但正式承认境内不同的民族群体。
Mr Jabareen envisages a bi-national state, which operates as a single political entity but formally recognises the different national groups within it.
这将意味着结束独立于以色列生活的梦想——这仍然是该政党的正式政策——但他认为大多数巴勒斯坦人会接受这一设想。
It would mean the end of the dream of living independently from Israel – still formal party policy – but he thinks most Palestinians would accept it.
“这些想法肯定比目前这个血腥的现实要好，在那个现实中，他们被剥夺了基本的投票权，人们甚至无法从一个村庄到另一个村庄，”他说。
“These ideas are definitely better than this current bloody reality, when they are denied basic voting rights and people can’t move from one village to another,” he says.
“我认为他们会欢迎任何能让他们与犹太人享有完全平等的想法。”
“I think they would welcome any idea that would give them full equality with Jews.”
以色列定居者与巴勒斯坦人在拉姆安拉附近的阿布法拉发生冲突 路透社/阿马尔·阿瓦德将这一想法推向逻辑结论，对以色列其他地区的影响将是巨大的。
Israeli settlers have clashed with Palestinians in Abu Falah near Ramallah REUTERS/Ammar Awad Taken to its logical conclusion, the ramifications for the rest of Israel would be enormous.
一方面，该国可以在国际同意的情况下扩张，将许多以色列人内心深处认为理应属于自己的领土纳入其中，尤其是西岸地区，即广为人知的犹大和撒玛利亚地区。这些是犹太人最重要的圣经土地之一。
On the one hand, the country could with international consent expand to include the territories that many Israelis in their hearts believe are rightfully theirs anyway, particularly when it comes to the West Bank, the area widely known as Judea, and Samaria. These are some of the most important biblical lands for Jews.
然而，以色列几乎立刻就会面临失去犹太人多数地位的风险，因为根据某些统计，以色列和被占领领土的阿拉伯人数量已略多于犹太人，约740万对735万。简而言之，以色列将不再是“犹太”国家。
However, Israel would risk almost immediately losing its Jewish majority, given that there are already marginally more Arabs in Israel and the occupied territories than Jews, about 7.4 million compared to 7.35 million, according to some measures. In short, Israel would no longer be the “Jewish” state.
在当前的政治气候下，要想象以色列政治光谱中除极左翼以外的任何部分会接受这一点，那是天方夜谭。
It would be fanciful to imagine this being accepted by any part of the Israeli political spectrum other than the hard-Left in the current climate.
像斯莫特里奇先生这样的极端民族主义者已公开讨论吞并西岸，但不给那里的巴勒斯坦人在以色列国家政府选举中投票的权利。
Ultra-nationalists such as Mr Smotrich have publicly discussed annexing the West Bank without giving Palestinians there the vote when it comes to the national government of Israel.
与此同时，自称以安全为重的中间派人士艾森科特，几乎没有表明他支持改变西岸的现状，除了遏制暴力定居者猖獗的非法活动。
Meanwhile Mr Eisenkot, who presents himself as a security-focused centrist, has given little indication that he favours a change to the status quo in the West Bank other than curbing rampant illegal activity by violent settlers.
贾巴林先生苦笑了一下。“我认为主要反对不会来自巴勒斯坦人，”他说。
Mr Jabareen smiles ruefully. “I think the main objection wouldn’t come from the Palestinians,” he says.
他这番话的意义在于，它们暗示了巴勒斯坦心态的转变——以民族主义为代价出现的新兴务实主义——而不是任何即将实现的现实场景。
The significance of his comments is what they suggest about the shifting Palestinian mindset – an emerging pragmatism at the expense of nationalism – rather than as a realistic scenario any time soon.
傍晚时分，贾巴林先生在乌姆法赫姆附近的一个小村庄向邻里会议发表讲话，该村庄位于以色列与西岸之间“绿线”隔开的山丘彼岸，大约一英里远。
As evening approaches, Mr Jabareen addresses a neighbourhood meeting in a small village outside Umm al-Fahm, about a mile away over the hills from the “green line” separating Israel from the West Bank.
贾巴林先生在乌姆法赫姆向潜在支持者讲话 约60名村里的男性围坐在面向内部的塑料座椅矩形圈中，许多人抽得烟雾缭绕，青少年男孩则传递咖啡和枣子。这是贾巴林的票仓。
Yousef Jabareen speaking to potential supporters in Umm al-Fahm About 60 of the village men sit in inward-facing rectangles of plastic seats, many smoking prodigiously, as teenage boys pass round coffee and dates. This is the Jabareen stronghold.
确实，在夕阳西下时认真聆听的人中，有相当一部分少数群体与共同名单领袖有直接亲属关系。
Indeed, a sizeable minority of the people who are listening intently as the sun goes down are directly related to the Joint List leader.
一位接一位，年长的男性站起来发表观点——毕竟，这是一场公开会议，而不是集会。
One by one, the older men stand up to make their points – this is a public meeting, after all, not a rally.
当贾巴林回答问题时，他以离开法律职业后所养成的精准作答。但他将这种精准与一种安静的温暖以及偶尔的玩笑相结合，这似乎让人群被他吸引，使他成为一个触手可及的政治家。
When Mr Jabareen answers, he does so with the precision of the legal career he left behind. But he combines this with a quiet warmth and the odd joke which seems to draw the crowd towards him, a politician to his fingertips.
杰克·沃利斯·西蒙斯 如果内塔尼亚胡本月失败，以色列的敌人绝不会有丝毫松懈。
Jake Wallis Simons If Netanyahu is defeated this month, the Israel-haters won't let up one bit