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为挽救中期选举,特朗普正重新点燃助他当选总统的怨恨政治To save the midterms, Trump is recharging the grievance politics that made him president

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10月17日,唐纳德·特朗普总统在肯塔基州高地高地的北肯塔基大学校园特鲁伊斯特体育馆举行中期选举集会上发表讲话后离场时挥手致意。President Donald Trump waves as he departs after delivering remarks during a midterm rally at Truist Arena on the Northern Kentucky University campus on October 17 in Highland Heights, Kentucky.
2026年10月17日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在肯塔基州海兰海茨举行的中期选举集会上发表讲话后离开。Eric Lee/Getty ImagesPresident Donald Trump departs after delivering remarks at a midterm rally on October 17 in Highland Heights, Kentucky. Eric Lee/Getty Images

唐纳德·特朗普正在中期选举竞赛中打出他最后的牌之一:对美国文明崩溃的恐惧。

Donald Trump is playing one of his final cards in the midterm election race: fear of an American civilizational collapse.

听听这位总统的说法,美国人目前面临的最大威胁,不是食品、汽油、柴油和住房的高昂成本;不是他陷入的伊朗战争泥潭;也不是人们担心人工智能可能消灭工作乃至人类。

To hear the president, the greatest current threat to Americans is not the prohibitive cost of groceries, gasoline, diesel and housing; his Iran war quagmire; or concerns that AI could wipe out jobs and even humanity.

而是,除非他的共和党在中期选举中保持对华盛顿权力的垄断,否则白人基督教文化可能会被摧毁。

It’s that White, Christian culture could be destroyed unless his Republican monopoly on Washington power is preserved in the midterm elections.

在其政治竞选中最令人不安的收官论点之一中,特朗普正在抛出带有种族色彩的言论;煽动伊斯兰恐惧症式的偏执;并散布关于儿童在未经父母同意的情况下接受大规模变性手术而被残害的虚假景象。他还充当他人信仰和美国身份的仲裁者。

In one of the most foreboding closing arguments of any of his political campaigns, Trump is flinging racially charged rhetoric; conjuring Islamophobic paranoia; and stirring up false visions of kids being mutilated in mass transgender surgeries without parental consent. He’s also acting as an arbiter of others’ faith and American identify.

“美国人将站出来宣布,我们将保护我们的文明,我们将保存我们的宗教、我们的价值观和我们的传统,我们绝不会让我们的国家被仇恨我们的人征服或摧毁,”特朗普周一在堪萨斯州的一次集会上说,他在集会上还使用了一句反犹太主义的侮辱性言辞。

“Americans are going to stand up and declare that we will protect our civilization, we will preserve our religion, our values and our heritage, and we will never let our nation be conquered or destroyed by people that hate us,” Trump said at a rally in Kansas on Monday, at which he also used an antisemitic slur.

在担任总统近六年以来最脆弱的政治时刻,特朗普并没有就其在可负担性或外交政策方面的记录提出有说服力、创新性的辩护。他正在加强使其成名的焦土意象,并试图通过武器化痛苦的国家分歧来补充权力。

At his most vulnerable political moment in nearly six years as president, Trump isn’t responding with compelling, innovative defenses of his record on affordability or foreign policy. He’s intensifying the scorched-earth imagery that made his name and seeking to replenish power by weaponizing painful national divides.

作为他愿意涉足一些最敏感文化问题的一个例子,特朗普在堪萨斯州的活动上警告说,民主党参议院候选人亚当·汉密尔顿告诉人们“因为你生来就是白人而忏悔”。这对候选人关于种族、自我反思和个人信仰的更广泛言论进行了歪曲。但弄清细节几乎不是重点。

In an example of his willingness to wade into some of the most sensitive cultural issues, Trump warned at his Kansas event that Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton told people to “repent because you were born White.”This was a misrepresentation of the candidate’s far more expansive remarks on race, self-reflection and personal faith. But getting the details right is hardly the point.

周一,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与参议员罗杰·马歇尔在堪萨斯州帕克城的集会上互致问候。Jonathan Ernst/ReutersPresident Donald Trump and Sen. Roger Marshall greet each other during a rally in Park City, Kansas, on Monday. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

特朗普还一直声称,出生于美国的密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛德是“圣战者”,他在周二晚于北卡罗来纳州重复了这一抹黑。他还一直称埃尔赛德为“穆罕默德”,理由是“如果你对名字有任何疑问,就叫这个人穆罕默德。你大概率会猜对。”这种刻板印象不仅仅是为了取消一名政敌的资格。它暗示,所有与该人有相同信仰或种族特征的人都缺乏作为个体的独特人性,并不真正属于美国人。

Trump has also been claiming that US-born Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is a “jihadist,” a smear he repeated Tuesday night in North Carolina. And he has been referring to El-Sayed as “Mohammed” on the basis that if “you have any problem with names, just call the guy Mohammed. You’ll probably be right.”Such stereotyping is not merely aimed at disqualifying a political foe. It implies that everyone who shares that person’s faith or ethnic characteristics lacks the distinguishing humanity of an individual and is not authentically American.

总统在堪萨斯州再次展现了他的心态,他使用“夏洛克”——一个反犹太主义的诽谤性称呼——来为共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔辩护,以回应关于医疗账单行为的批评。这一次,他不能说不知道这个词的含义:他在2025年公开使用这个词引发了轩然大波。总统正在超越对宗教和种族的泛化。

The president offered another glimpse into his mindset in Kansas when he used “Shylock” — an antisemitic slur — to defend GOP Sen. Roger Marshall against criticism over medical billing practices. This time, he can’t say he was unaware of the term’s insinuations: He caused a storm by using it publicly in 2025. The president is going beyond generalizing over religion and race.

……2026年10月14日星期三,在得克萨斯州沃思堡举行的CNN和Jubilee市政厅活动中,与詹姆斯·塔拉里科同台。塔拉里科是得克萨斯州联邦参议员民主党提名人,将在备受关注的中期选举中与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿竞争。Tristen Rouse/CNN… during a CNN and Jubilee Town Hall with James Talarico, in Fort Worth, Texas, on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Talarico is the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Texas, competing with Republican Ken Paxton in the highly-watched midterms race. Tristen Rouse/CNN

他本月在亚利桑那州警告说,民主党控制的国会将导致学校中儿童广泛进行性别转换。“他们想要残害、切割你的孩子。他们所做的事令人难以置信。……你的儿子作为吉米离开,三天后回家时变成了珍妮特,他们甚至不征求你的意见,”他说。他上周在佐治亚州和周二晚在北卡罗来纳州也讲了类似毫无根据的故事。

He warned in Arizona this month that a Democratic Congress would lead to widespread gender transitions of children in schools. “They want to mutilate, cut your children. It’s unbelievable, what they do. … Your son leaves as Jimmy and comes back home in three days as Janet, and they don’t even ask you,” he said. He told similar baseless tales in Georgia last week and in North Carolina on Tuesday evening.

在过去几天里,他煽起恐惧,称如果民主党获胜,正在肆虐法国的骚乱将跨越大西洋,此前他一直在竞选中警告说,社会主义者和共产主义者想要摧毁共和国。周二,他再次妖魔化出生于索马里的明尼苏达州民主党众议员伊尔汉·奥马尔,驳斥了这样一个观点:这位归化的美国公民有权享有宪法权利,理由是她原本来自一个“臭烂烂”的国家。

In recent days, he’s stoked fears that the rioting rocking France will cross the Atlantic if the Democrats win, after a campaign in which he’s warned socialists and communists want to obliterate the republic. He again demonized Somali-born Minnesota Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar on Tuesday, dismissing the idea that the naturalized American citizen is entitled to constitutional rights because she is originally from a “shithouse” country.

总统还试图煽动宗教不容,暗示那些不认同其支持者特定政治信条的信徒是国家威胁。周一,他嘲讽汉密尔顿作为复活节联合卫理公会领袖的宗教资历。“他不像一位牧师,因为他的观点不像一位牧师的观点,”特朗普说。

The president has also sought to foster religious intolerance by implying that the faithful who do not share his sympathizers’ specific political creed are a national threat. On Monday, he mocked Hamilton’s religious credentials as a leader in the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection. “He doesn’t act like a pastor because his views aren’t of a pastor,” Trump said.

特朗普承认自己几乎不是《圣经》爱好者,但他仍将自己描绘成一位伪先知,声称一位未具名的德克萨斯州宗教领袖正确地预言,“他将带领我们进入一个……在基督教中无人能及的时期。”特朗普长期以来一直试图找出敌人和局外人,以此来定义自己。当他有对手时,政治效果最好。许多政客都有夸大其词的行为。有些人,比如特朗普,有时会把充满报复性的评论包装成玩笑,以制造一层政治掩护。

While admitting he’s hardly a Bible aficionado, Trump nevertheless portrayed himself as a pseudo-prophet, claiming that an unnamed Texas religious leader had been correct to predict that “he’s going to lead us to a period of time … in Christianity that nobody else can do.”Trump has long sought to identify enemies and outsiders against whom to define himself. He’s most politically effective when he has a foil. And many politicians are guilty of exaggeration. Some, like Trump, sometimes dole out vindictive comments framed as jokes to create a layer of political cover.

例如,副总统JD·万斯利用了不美国化局外人的主题,周一开玩笑说,他某场活动中的一名抗议者一定是非法越境才会如此行为。

Vice President JD Vance, for instance, tapped into the theme of un-American outsiders, quipping Monday that a protester at one of his events must have crossed the border illegally to behave in such a manner.

与此同时,许多自由派倾向于认为特朗普的所有支持者都认同其运动领袖表面上的种族和宗教偏见。这对那些认为特朗普整体信息有吸引力的选民来说,并非公平的批评。

Many liberals have meanwhile tended to assume that all Trump’s supporters share the apparent racial and religious prejudices of their movement’s leader. That’s not a fair criticism of voters who find the totality of his message appealing.

担心民主党没有妥善保障南部边境,并不一定是种族主义。一些美国人真心担心,扩大的穆斯林或其他信仰群体是否会完全融入,或改变其城市和习俗的特征。候选人对中东或穆斯林兄弟会等团体的观点,在竞选辩论中被讨论,这完全合适。埃尔赛义德并非不愿回应这些问题。

It is not necessarily racist to worry that Democrats didn’t properly secure the southern border. Some Americans genuinely worry whether expanding Muslim or other faith communities will fully integrate or change the character of their cities and customs. And it’s perfectly appropriate for issues like a candidate’s views on the Middle East or groups like the Muslim Brotherhood to be litigated in campaign debates. El-Sayed has hardly been unwilling to address them.

然而,特朗普所做的远不止是向支持者抛出政治顾问所说的“红肉”。这样一位老练的政治操盘手在舞台上漫无目的地胡言乱语,这说法不可信。灼热主题的反复出现,以及频繁诉诸种族或宗教陈词滥调,正在制造一种恐惧模式。

Yet Trump is going much further than simply throwing out “red meat” to supporters, in the phraseology of political consultants. It’s not credible that such a sophisticated political operator is mindlessly blurting out random thoughts during his onstage weave. The repetition of searing themes and the frequent resort to racial or religious tropes is creating a pattern of fear.

特朗普重返他最具煽动性的意象之际,正值他前往红州进行竞选之旅,这是一场不得已的尝试,旨在激发最保守选民的投票率,以挽救处境艰难的共和党候选人。他在顶级政坛十年的经历表明,他那黑暗的修辞可以成为集结的号角。

Trump’s return to some of his most inflammatory imagery coincides with a swing through red states in a last-ditch bid to jolt turnout among the most conservative voters as he tries to save vulnerable Republican candidates. His decade in top-flight politics has shown his dark rhetoric can be a rallying cry.

但即便对特朗普而言,在一个一贯藐视礼仪的政治生涯中,最新的煽动性言论也格外刺眼。这看起来像是一次刻意的转移注意力的尝试;一场试图重新定义选举利害关系的努力,而这场选举原本由对可负担性的担忧所主导——以及他对伊朗发动的战争所加剧的选民经济困境。

But even for Trump, in a political career that has always flouted decorum, the latest demagoguery is stark. It comes across as a deliberate attempt at distraction; an effort to reframe the stakes of an election dominated by concerns about affordability — and voter economic plights worsened by his war in Iran.

尚不清楚这是否奏效。如果他能激活那些只有在他名列选票时才出现的低投票率选民,也许他能挽救一些从未料到会在2026年为自己的政治生涯而战的红州共和党人。

It’s unclear whether it will work. If he can animate low-intensity voters who have shown up only when he’s on the ballot, maybe he’ll save some red-state Republicans who never expected they’d face a fight for their careers in 2026.

而白宫战略家们的做法表明,他们明白他那些离谱的言论可能会疏远更温和的选民,因此本周没有派他前往竞争最激烈的摇摆州。

But White House strategists show they understand how his outlandish comments can alienate more moderate voters by not sending him this week to swing states with the tightest races.

南卡罗来纳州前共和党州长马克·桑福德周二在CNN的艾琳·伯内特节目中表示,专注于关于跨性别儿童的虚假故事,不太可能减轻共和党的脆弱性。

And Mark Sanford, the Republican former governor of South Carolina, told CNN’s Erin Burnett on Tuesday that concentrating on false stories about transgender kids was unlikely to mitigate GOP vulnerabilities.

“我觉得这跑题了,因为我在南卡罗来纳州及其周边与之交谈的大多数人都担心经济,担心负担能力,担心通货膨胀,”桑福德说。“我想,如果当前的情况对你不起作用,这可能是一种转移话题的方式……但我不认为这是能够左右摇摆选民的问题。”

“I think it’s off-topic because the preponderance of folks that I talked to in and around South Carolina are worried about the economy, they’re worried about affordability. They’re worried about inflation,” Sanford said. “I guess it’s a way of changing the subject if what’s going on isn’t working for you … but I don’t see this as the issue that’s going to move swing voters.”

2026年10月17日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在肯塔基州海兰海茨举行的竞选集会上注视支持者,以支持共和党众议院候选人埃德·加尔雷因和参议院候选人安迪·巴尔。Kevin Lamarque/ReutersPresident Donald Trump looks at supporters during a campaign rally to support Republican House candidate Ed Gallrein and Senate candidate Andy Barr in Highland Heights, Kentucky, on October 17. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

特朗普两任期的喧嚣有时已经削弱了人们对他那些行为的震惊,或者只是让他的批评者筋疲力尽,因为他充满敌意地铺天盖地地制造舆论。当然,美国政治长期以来一直被种族主义所玷污。偏见会周期性地涌上政治生活的表面,往往是当某些把它视为积聚更多权力工具的政客加以煽动时。

The cacophony of Trump’s two terms has sometimes dimmed shock over his antics or simply exhausted his critics as he floods the zone with acrimony. American politics, of course, has long been scarred by racism. Bigotry has periodically rushed to the surface of political life, often when cultivated by a politician who sees it as a vehicle to amass more power.

然而,目睹一位总统、一位国家元首如此有意识地使用他的扩音器来撕裂国家的种族、宗教和文化分歧,仍然令人惊叹。当过去的总统,如理查德·尼克松、罗纳德·里根或乔治·H·W·布什——甚至是通过《民权法案》的林登·约翰逊——出于政治原因想要打种族牌时,他们是隐晦地或隐喻地进行的。

Yet it’s still remarkable to witness a president, a head of state, so consciously using his megaphone to tear at national racial, religious and cultural divides. When past presidents like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan or George H.W. Bush — or even Lyndon Johnson, who passed the Civil Rights Act — wanted to play a race card for political reasons, they did it implicitly or metaphorically.

特朗普不搞这种含蓄。通过攻击无证移民、少数族裔议员和跨性别公民,他似乎在故意划定谁属于美国并从中受益——这条路径既威胁到个别公民,也威胁到国家团结。但尽管其气势汹汹,这次的信号却暗示着脆弱。

Trump doesn’t do such subtlety. By lashing out at undocumented migrants, minority lawmakers and transgender citizens, he seems to be deliberately trying to delineate who belongs in America and benefits from its rights — a path that is both threatening to individual citizens and national unity. But for all its ferocity, the message this time around hints at vulnerability.

在特朗普的总统竞选中,他寻找外部敌人来归咎于美国的种种问题,往往是推动其运动的凝聚力量。如今,他的支持率接近历史低点,这个强人关于国家被外来者围攻的幻想,暗示着一位正在进行最后抵抗的衰落领导人——而不是一位有能力通过说服来扩大其吸引力的领导人。

In Trump’s presidential campaigns, his search for outside foes on whom to blame America’s woes was often a galvanizing force for his movement. Now, with his popularity near record lows, the strongman’s conceit of a nation besieged by outsiders suggests a diminished leader making a last stand — rather than one with the capacity to expand his appeal through persuasion.

民调显示,大多数美国人对特朗普的表现、经济管理以及标志性的外战持负面看法,因此他试图通过煽动性的转移视线手段来扭转局势,似乎不太可能奏效。难怪共和党对11月3日的到来感到日益忧心忡忡。

And with polls showing majorities of Americans sour on Trump’s performance, economic management and signature foreign war, his attempt at inflammatory distraction seems unlikely to prevail. No wonder the GOP views November 3 with growing trepidation.

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