1965年4月7日，林登·B·约翰逊总统在约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发表演讲，实际上提出要为北越建设一个相当于田纳西河流域管理局的机构，条件是河内停止支持南越的叛乱。在从演讲地乘直升机返回的途中，约翰逊探身向一名助手，把手搭在对方膝盖上，谈到北越领导人胡志明时说：“老胡拒绝不了这个提议，老胡拒绝不了。”胡志明确实拒绝了约翰逊。
On April 7, 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson gave a speech at Johns Hopkins University in which he effectively offered to build the equivalent of the Tennessee Valley Authority for North Vietnam on the condition that Hanoi cease supporting the insurgency in South Vietnam. On the helicopter ride back from the speech, Johnson leaned across to an assistant, put his hand on his knee, and said of Ho Chi Minh, the North Vietnamese leader, “Old Ho can’t turn that down, Old Ho can’t turn that down.”Ho did turn Johnson down.
如今，这一事件被政治心理学课程用作教材，说明总统如何天真地认为、在州和城市层面司空见惯的交易式政治、也能在国际舞台奏效，结果却发现民族主义、意识形态和竞争关系更重要。
Today, the incident is taught in political-psychology courses to illustrate how presidents can naively think that transactional politics, commonplace in states and cities, will work on the global stage, only to find out that nationalism, ideology, and rivalry matter more.
唐纳德·特朗普陷入了与弗拉基米尔·普京同样的陷阱，显然认为正确的经济激励能说服俄罗斯领导人实现和平。这种做法并未奏效。相反，它正在切断结束乌克兰冲突的唯一现实途径，并使战争更有可能扩大和恶化。
Donald Trump has fallen into the same trap with Vladimir Putin, apparently believing that the right economic incentives will persuade the Russian leader to make peace. This approach is not working. Instead, it’s closing off the one realistic pathway to end the conflict with Ukraine, and making the war likelier to expand and worsen.
在第二任期伊始，特朗普惊讶地发现，普京不会迅速以冻结领土控制线和承诺乌克兰不加入北约的方式结束战争。特朗普没有寻求改善乌克兰在战场上的地位，也没有通过制裁对俄罗斯施加杠杆，而是决定让普京相信和平将带来经济回报。在克里姆林宫抱怨特朗普的乌克兰特使、陆军中将基思·凯洛格过于偏向乌克兰人后，特朗普将其从谈判团队中撤换，改派自己的朋友、房地产大亨史蒂夫·威特科夫。俄罗斯金融家基里尔·德米特里耶夫将成为特朗普通往普京的渠道。
Early in his second term, Trump was surprised that Putin would not end the war quickly with a freezing of the territorial lines and a promise that Ukraine would not join NATO. Rather than seeking to improve Ukraine’s position on the battlefield or apply leverage against Russia through sanctions, Trump decided to convince Putin that peace would be financially rewarding. Trump pulled his Ukraine envoy, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, off the negotiating team after the Kremlin complained that he was too favorable to Ukrainians and replaced him with his friend Steve Witkoff, a real-estate tycoon. The Russian financier Kirill Dmitriev would be Trump’s conduit to Putin.
威特科夫和德米特里耶夫在近一年前敲定了一项协议，内容包括全面解除制裁、美俄合资企业，甚至俄罗斯重返G7（使其恢复为G8），但因普京要求乌克兰在战场上割让领土而告吹。威特科夫和德米特里耶夫继续他们的努力。
Witkoff and Dmitriev worked out a deal almost a year ago that included a full lifting of sanctions, joint U.S.-Russian business ventures, and even Russia’s readmission to the G7 (turning it into the G8), but it foundered on Putin’s demand that Ukraine cede territory on the battlefield. Witkoff and Dmitriev continued their efforts.
最新事态出现在过去一周，当时美乌关系跌至2025年2月椭圆办公室冲突以来的最低点。特朗普与普京达成一项协议，俄罗斯将向美国和全球市场提供柴油燃料。乌克兰总统泽连斯基猛烈抨击该安排，称其“不公平也不诚实”，看起来像是“送给普京的生日大礼”。
The latest version emerged in the past week as U.S.-Ukraine relations reached their lowest point since the Oval Office bust-up in February 2025. Trump and Putin struck an agreement in which Russia would provide diesel fuel to the United States and global markets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky slammed the arrangement, saying that it was “not fair and honest” and that it looked like “a happy-birthday present for Putin.”
大怒的特朗普呼吁替换泽连斯基，并说泽连斯基比普京更难打交道。随后几天，基辅指责华盛顿削减情报合作，包括扣留来袭弹道导弹袭击的情报（政府否认了这一点）。《金融时报》报道称，政府正考虑将部分冻结资产归还俄罗斯，作为部分停火的激励。特朗普随后根据《林赛·O·格雷厄姆制裁俄罗斯和伊朗法案》豁免了对俄罗斯的制裁，称这样做符合美国国家利益。
An infuriated Trump called for Zelensky to be replaced and said that he was harder to deal with than Putin. In the days that followed, Kyiv accused Washington of curtailing intelligence cooperation, including by withholding information on incoming ballistic-missile strikes (the administration denied this). The Financial Times reported that the administration is considering returning some of the frozen assets to Russia as an incentive for a partial cease-fire. Trump then waived sanctions on Russia under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, saying that doing so was in the national interest of the United States.
在Truth Social上，特朗普发帖称他正在谈判结束战争，不想“做任何会愚蠢地把俄罗斯赶离谈判桌的事”。随着美乌关系似乎急转直下，政府试图传达其决策背后的更大理由。一位高级官员告诉《华盛顿邮报》的大卫·伊格内修斯，因为乌克兰协议难以谈判，白宫将把问题放大，谈判一项地区性协议。这将包括通过一条新管道向欧洲供应能源的条款，利润将在乌克兰和俄罗斯之间分享，并解决莫斯科与欧洲国家的分歧。
On Truth Social, Trump posted that he was in negotiations to end the war and didn’t “want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table.”As U.S.-Ukrainian relations seemed to nose-dive, the administration tried to convey a larger rationale behind its decision making. A senior official told The Washington Post’s David Ignatius that because a Ukraine deal was proving difficult to negotiate, the White House would enlarge the problem and negotiate a regional deal. This would include provisions to supply energy to Europe through a new pipeline, with profits to be shared between Ukraine and Russia, and the resolution of Moscow’s differences with European countries.
这个提议实际上就是约翰逊的方案。如果普京是一位没有过往记录的新领导人，其背后的天真或许还可以原谅，但普京是一个已知量。乌克兰是他的执念，他的白鲸。他想征服乌克兰，并且已经证明，为了实现这一目标，他愿意付出巨大的代价。
This proposal is, in effect, the Johnson plan. The naivete behind it would perhaps be excusable if Putin were a new leader with no track record, but he is a known quantity. Ukraine is his obsession, his white whale. He wants to subjugate it and has proved that he will pay an enormous price to achieve this goal.
特朗普需要解决的直接外交问题是，普京不会满足于任何低于乌克兰投降并割让更多领土的方案，而这是任何乌克兰领导人都无法接受的。普京以武力夺取这些领土的可能性很小：由于该地区遍布无人机，前线基本处于静止状态。然而，这位俄罗斯领导人有两个希望。
The immediate diplomatic problem that Trump needs to solve is that Putin will not settle for anything less than the surrender of additional territory by Ukraine, which is something no Ukrainian leader can accept. Putin stands little chance of taking this territory by force: The front line is largely static, thanks to the saturation of the area with drones. However, the Russian leader has two hopes.
其一是通过残酷的空中攻势摧毁乌克兰的电网，给数百万人带来苦难，从而在这个冬天击垮乌克兰。也许这种压力会导致乌克兰前线崩溃，或者促使基辅在谈判桌上接受莫斯科的要求。
One is to break Ukraine this winter with a brutal air offensive that would destroy its energy grid and deliver misery to millions. Maybe such pressure would cause Ukraine’s front line to collapse or lead Kyiv to accept Moscow’s demands at the negotiating table.
另一个前景是升级俄罗斯对乌克兰欧洲伙伴的暗影战争。莫斯科已经与暗杀阴谋、纵火以及在机场放置满载爆炸物的无人机有关联。包括波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克和法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在内的多位欧洲领导人警告称，俄罗斯正在考虑用无人机和导弹袭击东欧国家，事后将予以否认。普京希望这场暗影战争能削弱欧洲各国政府，让那些会切断对乌克兰援助并迫使其向俄罗斯的要求屈服的政党上台。
The other prospect is to escalate Russia’s shadow war against Ukraine’s European partners. Moscow is already linked to assassination plots, arson, and the planting of explosive-laden drones in airports. A number of European leaders, including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron, have warned that Russia is considering hitting Eastern European states with drone and missile attacks that it would later deny. Putin hopes that this shadow war will weaken European governments and bring to power parties that will cut off aid to Ukraine and pressure it to capitulate to Russia’s demands.
如果普京在这两个策略中得逞——在冬季削弱乌克兰，同时在欧洲煽动动荡——他将确信俄罗斯能够在未来几年内艰难地取得一场血腥的胜利。
If Putin succeeds in these two gambits—weakening Ukraine over the winter while stoking unrest in Europe—he will be confident that Russia can grind out a bloody victory over the next couple of years.
普京似乎认为时间站在他这一边。特朗普的让步强化了这种看法。但如果特朗普能改变普京对未来的预期，外交协议或许就有可能达成。尤其是，特朗普必须让普京相信，这场战争对俄罗斯来说不会变得更好，而且他现在能得到的协议比以后能得到的更好。
Putin seems to think that time is on his side. Trump’s concessions reinforce that perception. But if Trump can change Putin’s expectations about the future, a diplomatic deal might become possible. In particular, Trump must convince Putin that the war will not get any better for Russia, and that the deal he can get now is better than the one he can get later.
这意味着要尽一切可能确保乌克兰挺过普京的冬季攻势：向基辅提供尽可能多的防空装备，提供来袭导弹的预警，鼓励盟友扣押俄罗斯的主权资产以给乌克兰提供经济缓解，并帮助乌克兰让俄罗斯付出代价。
This means doing everything possible to ensure that Ukraine survives Putin’s winter campaign: supplying Kyiv with as much air defense as possible, providing advance warning of incoming missiles, encouraging allies to seize Russia’s sovereign assets to provide Ukraine with economic relief, and helping Ukraine impose costs on Russia.
这还意味着要帮助欧洲阻止普京升级对北约成员国的影子战争。这很难，但可行。欧洲需要让普京相信，攻击增加——尤其是任何造成伤亡的攻击——将加深欧洲和美国对乌克兰冲突的介入。例如，欧洲可以说，如果俄罗斯向北约成员国发射导弹或无人机，一个欧洲联盟将在乌克兰西部部署防空系统。特朗普可以告诉普京，如果俄罗斯继续骚扰欧洲，他将与埃隆·马斯克一起为乌克兰扫清障碍，让乌克兰使用星链打击俄罗斯境内的军事目标。
It also means helping Europe deter Putin from escalating his shadow war against NATO members. This is difficult but doable. Europe needs to convince Putin that increased attacks, especially any that result in casualties, will deepen Europe’s and the United States’ involvement in the Ukraine conflict. For instance, Europe could say that if Russia launches missiles or drones against NATO members, a European coalition will place air defenses in western Ukraine. Trump could tell Putin that if Russia keeps harassing Europe, he will clear the way with Elon Musk for Ukraine to use Starlink to hit military targets inside of Russia.
如果俄罗斯的某次攻击造成大规模伤亡，例如击落一架民用客机，盟国可以将俄罗斯列为支持恐怖主义的国家。当我在拜登政府的国家安全委员会任职时，在俄罗斯策划在运载DHL包裹的客机上放置易燃装置后，我们向俄罗斯人传达了这一点。我们明确表示，这样的认定可能会导致俄罗斯驻美国大使馆关闭。他们停止了这些图谋。
If one of Russia’s attacks resulted in mass casualties, such as the downing of a civilian airliner, the allies could designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. When I served at the National Security Council in the Biden administration, we communicated this to the Russians after they plotted to place flammable devices on airliners carrying DHL packages. We made clear that such a designation would likely lead to the closure of the Russian embassy in the United States. They stopped the plots.
帮助乌克兰度过冬季并威慑俄罗斯对欧洲的攻击，将有助于保持外交渠道的活力。但要达成协议，特朗普需要让普京相信，他的机会窗口正在关闭。在这方面，特朗普的政治弱势反而可能对他有利。
Helping Ukraine survive the winter and deterring Russian attacks on Europe will help keep diplomacy alive. But to close the deal, Trump needs to convince Putin that his window of opportunity is closing. Here, Trump’s political weakness could work to his advantage.
普京想必担心，特朗普的继任者——如果是民主党人，或是除J·D·万斯以外的共和党人——将更加偏向乌克兰。新一届政府很可能会增加美国对乌克兰的支持，并重新平衡特朗普任内达成的任何协议，可能将制裁减免与俄罗斯从乌克兰全境撤军挂钩。
Putin surely fears that Trump’s successor—if a Democrat or a Republican other than J. D. Vance—will be more favorable to Ukraine. A new administration will likely increase U.S. support for Ukraine and rebalance any deal made in the Trump years, possibly linking sanctions relief to Russian withdrawal from all of Ukraine.
特朗普可以把这一前景转化为筹码。他可以告诉普京，达成有利协议的机会确实存在，但未必会永远持续。只有他才能促成这样的协议。如果普京继续作战，他不会取得领土进展，乌克兰将生存下来并保留打击俄罗斯境内目标的能力，欧洲将更深入地介入，而有利的条款将会到期。
Trump could turn this prospect into leverage. He can tell Putin that the opportunity for a favorable deal is real, but that it may not last forever. Only he can deliver it. If Putin keeps fighting, he will not make territorial gains, Ukraine will survive and retain the capacity to strike inside of Russia, Europe will become more involved, and the favorable terms will expire.
然后，特朗普需要认真修改方案，使其能为乌克兰所接受。至少，这意味着冻结领土分界线，并且不在法律上承认被占领土。
Then Trump needs to get serious about revising the offer so that it is acceptable to Ukraine. At a minimum, that means a freezing of the territorial lines, and no legal recognition of the occupied territory.
特朗普希望被铭记为结束乌克兰战争的总统，但除非他改变路线，否则他可能反而会被铭记为给了普京信心去扩大并延长这场战争的总统。特朗普花了近两年时间试图让普京相信，和平比战争更有回报。为了达成停火，他现在必须让普京相信，战争比和平代价更高。
Trump wants to be remembered as the president who ended the war in Ukraine, but unless he changes course, he may instead be remembered as the president who gave Putin the confidence to widen and prolong it. Trump has spent nearly two years trying to convince Putin that peace will be more rewarding than war. To get a cease-fire, he must now convince him that war will be more costly than peace.