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塞尔维亚长期领导人面临最大政治考验,学生发起选举挑战Serbia’s longtime leader faces biggest political test as students mount election challenge

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塞尔维亚前总统、执政的塞尔维亚进步党(SNS)总理候选人亚历山大·武契奇在塞尔维亚尼什国王米兰广场举行的选前集会上做手势,2026年10月21日。(乔尔杰·科亚迪诺维奇/路透社)Serbia's former President and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) candidate for Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic gestures during a pre-election rally at King Milan Square in Nis, Serbia, Oct. 21, 2026. (Djordje Kojadinovic/Reuters)

塞尔维亚总统亚历山大·武契奇于9月辞去总统职务,正在议会选举中竞选总理,此次选举被认为是塞尔维亚近年来竞争最激烈的选举之一。

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigned from the presidency in September and is running for prime minister in parliamentary elections considered to be one of the most competitive elections for Serbia in recent memory.

“我认为这无疑是这位前总统14年执政生涯中最大的挑战,”亨利·杰克逊协会副研究员海伦娜·伊万诺夫对福克斯新闻数字频道表示。

"I think this is certainly the biggest challenge for the former President in his 14-year rule," Helena Ivanov, associate fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, told Fox News Digital.

“学生抗议者能够赢得人心,并以既有反对派从未能做到的方式保持势头,”伊万诺夫补充道。

"The student protesters have been able to capture the hearts and minds of people and keep the momentum going in a way that the established opposition was never able to do," Ivanov added.

塞尔维亚外交部长马尔科·久里奇对福克斯新闻数字频道表示,他认为学生反对派极不可能获胜。

Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric told Fox News Digital that he believes the student opposition is highly unlikely to win.

“塞尔维亚人民已经看穿了他们:多年的批评并未让公众相信他们拥有可信的纲领或对国家未来的严肃计划,”这位外交部长说。

"The people of Serbia have seen through them: years of criticism have not persuaded the public that they have a credible program or a serious plan for the country’s future," the foreign minister said.

久里奇盛赞武契奇治下塞尔维亚的经济以及与美国的战略对话,称这将促进更大的合作并为塞尔维亚人带来新的机遇。

Djuric touted Serbia’s economy under Vucic and the Strategic Dialogue with the U.S., which he said will foster greater cooperation and new opportunities for Serbs.

今年6月,武契奇在仍担任总统时接受福克斯新闻数字频道独家专访,以该国的经济增长作为其转型的证据。“我当总理时,我们的GDP是320亿(欧元),”武契奇说。“今年将超过1000亿欧元,也就是1200亿美元。”武契奇于2014年首次出任总理,2017年出任总统。

In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital in June when he was still president, Vucic pointed to the country's economic growth as evidence of its transformation. "Our GDP was 32 billion (euros) when I became the prime minister," Vucic said. "This year it's going to be over 100 billion euros, which is $120 billion." Vucic first became prime minister in 2014 and president in 2017.

在同一次采访中,他表示华盛顿与贝尔格莱德之间不断改善的关系日益集中于经济、投资和技术合作以及共同的保守价值观。

In that same interview, he said the improving relationship between Washington and Belgrade was increasingly centered on economics, investment and technological cooperation and mutual conservative values.

由参议员查克·格拉斯利(共和党-爱荷华州)和参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔(民主党-康涅狄格州)领导的两党参议员团体提出了《支持法治、建设制度正义与问责法案》(SRBIJA),旨在应对塞尔维亚的民主倒退,促进法治与问责,并改善对学生主导的公民抗议的对待。

A bipartisan group of senators led by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa., and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., introduced the Supporting the Rule of Law, Building Institutional Justice, and Accountability Act (SRBIJA) to address democratic backsliding in Serbia, promote the rule of law and accountability and improve the treatment of student-led civic protests.

最重要的是,该法案将未来援助与总统认证塞尔维亚在司法问责、新闻自由以及与欧盟和北约保持一致方面做出了“重大且持续”的努力挂钩。

Most importantly, the legislation would condition future aid on a presidential certification that Serbia made "significant and sustained" efforts toward judicial accountability, press freedom and alignment with the EU and NATO.

该两党议员团体还包括众议员乔·威尔逊(共和党-南卡罗来纳州)和众议员威廉·基廷(民主党-马萨诸塞州),其矛头直指武契奇总统及其执政时期。

The bipartisan group of lawmakers, which also included Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., and Rep. William Keating, D-Mass., took aim at President Vucic and his time in power.

国会和观察人士日益担忧,选举将在敌对环境中举行,旨在诋毁和破坏选举的努力已经开展。

There are growing concerns from Congress and observers that the election will take place in a hostile environment and efforts to discredit and undermine the election are already underway.

另一些人担心,如果“学生名单”获胜,现政府可能不会尊重选举结果。

Others fear the current government might not respect the outcome of the election if the Student List were to win.

人们走过一座挂着塞尔维亚前总统、执政的塞尔维亚进步党(SNS)总理候选人亚历山大·武契奇巨幅海报的桥梁,地点在塞尔维亚尼什,2026年10月10日。(马尔科·久里察/路透社)People walk on a bridge with a huge poster of Serbia's former President and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) candidate for prime minister Aleksandar Vucic on it, in Nis, Serbia, Oct. 10, 2026. (Marko Djurica/Reuters)

武契奇自2017年起担任塞尔维亚总统,此前曾于2014年至2017年担任总理,但受宪法任期限制。他卸任总统,为他通过重返总理职位继续掌权创造了机会。

Vucic had served as president of Serbia since 2017 and previously as prime minister from 2014 to 2017, but was term limited under the constitution. His exit from the presidency created the opportunity for him to remain in power by returning as prime minister.

武契奇去年9月辞去总统职务并解散议会,为10月25日的提前选举铺平了道路。

Vucic resigned from the presidency and dissolved parliament in September, setting the stage for the snap election on Oct. 25.

分析人士表示,作为总统,他一直在东西方地缘政治界线之间游走,既寻求欧洲合法性并在2014年启动欧盟入盟谈判,又在2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后仍与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京保持密切关系。

As president, analysts say he has always straddled the geopolitical line between East and West, seeking European legitimacy and launching EU accession talks in 2014 while also maintaining close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin even after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

与以往选举不同,学生主导的反对派为其事业赢得了广泛关注并动员了民众支持,从一场自发的抗议运动转变为一个合法的政治竞争者。

Unlike previous elections, the student-led opposition garnered significant attention to their cause and mobilized popular support, becoming a legitimate political contender out of a spontaneous protest movement.

自2024年11月起,塞尔维亚一直被学生领导的反腐抗议活动所动摇,抗议者要求就诺维萨德镇一座火车站坍塌导致16人死亡一事伸张正义并追究责任。2025年3月15日,塞尔维亚历史上最大规模的抗议活动之一举行,近35万人聚集在首都贝尔格莱德中央的斯拉维亚广场。

Serbia has been roiled by student-led anti-corruption protests since November 2024, demanding justice and accountability after the deaths of 16 people following the collapse of a railway station in the town of Novi Sad. One of the largest protests in Serbia’s history took place on March 15, 2025, with nearly 350,000 people gathered in Slavija Square in central Belgrade.

抗议者批评武契奇政府未能对棚架灾难追究任何人的责任,而政府继续对示威者实施强硬镇压。抗议者最初的诉求均未得到满足,因此学生转向选举政治,试图实现塞尔维亚政治反对派从未能够实现的变革。

The protesters criticized the Vucic government for failing to hold anyone accountable for the canopy disaster as the government continued its heavy-handed crackdown on demonstrators. None of the original demands of the protesters were met, so the students turned to electoral politics to enact change the Serbian political opposition was never able to achieve.

学生们走在前往北部城市诺维萨德的路上,他们将在那里参与对三座桥梁为期24小时的封锁,以抗议11月火车站顶棚坍塌事故中15人死亡,地点在塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德郊区巴塔伊尼察附近,2025年1月30日星期四。(美联社)Students walk on the road towards the northern city of Novi Sad, where they will participate in a 24 hour block of three bridges to protest the deaths of 15 people killed in the November collapse of a train station canopy, near the Belgrade suburb of Batajnica, Serbia, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025. (AP P

被称为“学生名单”的反对派由广泛的公民社会人士组成,其中许多人来自学术界,但不包括任何塞尔维亚传统反对党成员,这些政党过去一直难以挑战武契奇及其执政的塞尔维亚进步党。

The Student List, as the opposition is known, consists of a wide swath of civil society actors, many of whom come from the ranks of academia, but does not include anyone from Serbia’s traditional opposition parties that struggled to challenge Vucic and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the past.

该组织以去中心化方式运作,没有正式领导人。其主要优先事项是打击腐败,促进透明度和法治。

The group operates in a decentralized manner and does not have an official leader. Their main priorities are to tackle corruption and promote transparency and the rule of law.

来自贝尔格莱德大学的学生、现场抗议参与者菲利普·乌博维奇,在长达一年的抗议活动期间接受了福克斯新闻数字版的采访。

Filip Ubović, a student from the University of Belgrade and protest participant on the ground in Belgrade, has spoken with Fox News Digital over the course of the year-long protests.

乌博维奇表示,他参加抗议是因为对本国现状感到厌倦。乌博维奇说,这是第一次有机会做一些切实的事情,而不仅仅是抱怨。

Ubović said he joined the protests because he was fed up with the current state of his country. This was the first opportunity, Ubovic said, to do something tangible, instead of just complaining.

“人们早就忍无可忍,但决定全面接受我们,因为我们是‘他们的孩子’,我们年轻,我们不是职业政客,我们没有一个代表我们的单一面孔,而且我们非常专业且有原则,”乌博维奇说。

"People had enough for quite some time but decided to fully embrace us because we are ‘their kids’, we are young, we are not professional politicians, we do not have a single face representing us, and we are very professional and principled," Ubovic said.

“学生名单——学生必胜”选举名单上排名第一的伊利亚·斯尔贾诺维奇向欢迎学生们的市民挥手,这些学生从全国各地步行抵达首都,次日他们将在贝尔格莱德举行最后一场竞选集会,塞尔维亚,2026年10月21日。(马尔科·久里察/路透社)Ilija Srdanovic, first on the electoral list "Student List - Students Win" waves to citizens as they welcome students who walked to the capital from different parts of the country a day before their final campaign rally in Belgrade, Serbia, Oct. 21, 2026. (Marko Djurica/Reuters)

保卫民主基金会(Foundation for Defense of Democracies)的伊万娜·斯特拉德纳(Ivana Stradner)对福克斯新闻数字频道表示,腐败长期以来一直阻碍着巴尔干地区的民主以及当地人民的进步。

Ivana Stradner of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital that corruption has held back democracy in the Balkans and progress for its people for a while.

“腐败不仅窃取公共资金,还窃取整整一代人的未来。塞尔维亚和阿尔巴尼亚的年轻人正走上街头,要求问责和更美好的未来。美国应当关注此事,不是出于慈善,而是出于战略自身利益,”斯特拉德纳说。

"Corruption doesn’t just steal public money; it steals an entire generation’s future. Young people in Serbia and Albania are taking to the streets demanding accountability and a better future. The U.S. should pay attention, not out of charity, but strategic self-interest," Stradner said.

“选民可以选择——只是不能选择结果”:俄罗斯议会选举延伸至被占领的乌克兰 考验在于,学生名单能否将其街头的大规模动员转化为一个可行的政治选项,从而赢得选举并治理一个十多年来未曾经历政治转型的国家。

‘VOTERS GET TO CHOOSE — JUST NOT THE RESULT’: RUSSIA’S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION REACHES OCCUPIED UKRAINE The test will be whether the Student List can transition their popular mobilization in the streets into a viable political option that can win an election and govern a country that hasn’t undergone a political transition in over a decade.

“学生名单——学生必胜”学生名单上的议会候选人在贝尔格莱德举行的最后一场竞选集会上,塞尔维亚,2026年10月22日。(乔尔杰·科亚迪诺维奇/路透社)Parliamentary candidates on the "Student List - Students Win" student list attend a final campaign rally in Belgrade, Serbia, Oct. 22, 2026. (Djordje Kojadinovic/Reuters)

同样不清楚的是,如果学生名单获胜,他们将如何调整塞尔维亚的外交政策及其与美国的关系。

It’s also unclear, if the Student List were to win, how they might reorient Serbia’s foreign policy and its relations with the U.S.

“到目前为止,学生们一直非常不愿界定会偏离现任政府路线之外交政策目标。就目前而言,最现实的预期是延续性,”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院全球政策项目主任西尼沙·武科维奇(Sinisa Vukovic)对福克斯新闻数字频道表示。

"So far, the students have been remarkably reluctant to define foreign policy goals that would depart from the current government’s course. For now, the most realistic expectation is continuity," Sinisa Vukovic, director of the Global Policy Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, told Fox News Digital.

武科维奇说,塞尔维亚的外交政策自前南斯拉夫领导人斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇(Slobodan Milosevic)以来基本保持一致,而武契奇政府将科索沃危机和欧盟成员国身份等热点问题大多搁置未决。

Vuković said that Serbia’s foreign policy has remained mostly consistent dating back to Slobodan Milosevic, the former leader of Yugoslavia, and the Vucic government has left hot-button issues including the crisis over Kosovo and EU membership mostly unresolved.

尽管塞尔维亚国内可能发生很大变化,但与科索沃冲突的任何解决方案,或任何使塞尔维亚远离俄罗斯、大幅靠近美国和欧盟的外交政策重大调整,仍不明朗。

While much might change in Serbia domestically, any resolution to the conflict with Kosovo or any substantial reorientation of foreign policy that shifts Serbia away from Russia and moves it much closer to the U.S. and EU remains unclear.

“很可能出现又一个伪对冲时期,俄罗斯将在最关键的领域保持深度存在并主导其中大部分领域,”武科维奇补充道。

"Another period of pseudo-hedging is likely, with Russia keeping a deep presence in the most vital sectors and dominating most of them," Vukovic added.

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