Serbians go to polls to decide whether longtime strongman Aleksandar Vucic will return as prime minister or be ousted by unprecedented student-led opposition that wants to crack down on graft and boost democracy. The Balkan nation of 6.5 million is choosing between Vucic, who has been in power for more than a decade, and the Student List, born out of anti-government protests that have rocked Serbia for nearly two years.

Vucic has touted his successes in restoring economic growth and juggling Serbia’s bid to join the European Union while keeping friendly ties with the US, China and Russia. His rivals, who are yet to present their pick for premier, vow to reverse years of democratic backsliding and weakening of institutions.

They also want to prosecute graft and alleged abuse of power. He stepped down as president eight months before his last legally possible mandate expired. While he caved in to opposition demands to hold early elections, he seeks to return as the prime minister, a post he held for three years through 2017.

Local polls are mixed on the winner while Polymarket gives a 70% chance for Vucic’s Progressives to remain in power, possibly in a coalition with the Socialists. More than 8,000 polling stations open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. local time on Sunday.

Preliminary results are expected to start coming in about an hour later.

Seats are distributed proportionately among the parties that garner at least 3% of valid votes. The threshold doesn’t apply to ethnic minorities. The Stakes Vucic has pledged continuity, focusing on infrastructure development, incentives for investors and boost industries. The Student List vows to investigate large contracts overseen by the strongman for suspected graft and inflated prices.

Serbia’s EU bid, started in 2009, has stalled under Vucic, partly due to his rejection to join sanctions against Russia, and a lasting refusal to accept the secession of Kosovo. The Student List has made no commitment that its approach on these issues would be different.

“A government formed around the student movement would be more likely to pursue closer EU integration,” said Alex Kokcharov, an analyst on Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia at Bloomberg Economics. “But any foreign policy shifts would likely be gradual.”

Fairness of the Vote Allegations of vote-rigging, ballot-box tampering, intimidation or bribing of voters have marred Serbian ballots for decades. Shortcomings are regularly reported by foreign and local observers.

Vucic said he’d concede defeat if the challenger prevails, but insisted that his party will win by “hundreds of thousands” of votes. Risks The opposition has signaled it may contest the outcome over unfair conditions. “The real question is not just who wins the vote, but what happens when the results come in,” according to the US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data.

“With tensions running high and the government facing sustained opposition, the risk of further electoral violence is significant, both on polling day and in the aftermath, particularly if the results are disputed.”

Voter Turnout High turnout would indicate greater engagement of pro-opposition voters.

In the last general elections in 2023, when Vucic’s party won an outright majority with 47% of votes, the turnout was 59%. What Analysts Say“The Serbian election is shaping up to be a watershed moment for the country,” said Mario Bikarski, senior analyst at risk intelligence Verisk Maplecroft.

“However, it is unclear how enthusiastic the Student List would be about pursuing EU membership” if it wins, he said.

“Regardless of the result, it is unlikely that political stability would be restored quickly in the country.”