巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的连任，维护了北京在拉丁美洲最关键的立足点，同时使巴西利亚处于有利位置，可利用美中在其巨大稀土储量上的竞争，而不必选边站队。
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s re-election preserves Beijing’s most critical foothold in Latin America, while positioning Brasilia to leverage the US-China rivalry over its vast rare earth reserves without picking sides.
现年80岁的卢拉周日以51.8%的决选得票率击败右翼对手弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗，赢得前所未有的第四个总统任期。这位被监禁的前总统雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗之子、特朗普盟友目前拒绝承认败选。
Lula, 80, secured an unprecedented fourth term on Sunday after winning 51.8 per cent of the run-off vote to defeat right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro. The son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro and Trump ally has, however, refused to concede.
北京迅速欢迎这一结果，外交部发言人郭嘉昆周一向卢拉表示祝贺，并确认中国已准备好同巴西合作，“继续推进构建中巴命运共同体”。
Beijing swiftly welcomed the outcome, with foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun congratulating Lula on Monday and affirming that China was ready to work with Brazil to “continue advancing the building of a China-Brazil community with a shared future”.
这一结果使中国在拉美最大的贸易伙伴继续掌握在一位坚持不结盟的资深领导人手中，尽管华盛顿施加越来越大压力，要求其对北京采取对抗立场。
The outcome keeps China’s largest trading partner in Latin America in the hands of a veteran leader committed to non-alignment, despite growing pressure from Washington to take a confrontational stance towards Beijing.
该结果也使美国总统特朗普遏制北京在该地区不断扩大的影响力、重申美国在西半球主导地位的努力更加复杂。
The result also complicates US President Donald Trump’s efforts to counter Beijing’s expanding footprint across the region and reassert American dominance in the western hemisphere.
路易斯安那州立大学历史与国际研究助理教授安德烈·帕利亚里尼表示，在卢拉掌舵下，该地区不太可能“步特朗普政府对中国在美洲存在的敌意后尘”。
Andre Pagliarini, an assistant professor of history and international studies at Louisiana State University, said that with Lula at the helm, the region was unlikely to “fall into step with the Trump administration’s hostility towards China’s presence in the Americas”.
他说：“卢拉不会在世界舞台上彻底改变方向。这意味着巴西与中国的关系将保持现状。”巴西利亚的平衡术在高风险的资源竞争领域影响最为深远。
“Lula will not radically change directions on the world stage,” he said. “This means that Brazil’s relationship with China will remain as is.”Brasilia’s balancing act is most consequential in the high-stakes arena of resource competition.
帕利亚里尼表示，巴西稀土在未来几年有望获得更大的战略重要性，预计卢拉将“利用中美两国的兴趣，为巴西争取最有力的条件”，这与他的选举对手形成对比，后者倾向于将北京视为“意识形态敌人”。
Pagliarini said that Brazilian rare earths were poised to gain greater strategic importance in the coming years, with Lula expected to “leverage Chinese and US interest to secure the strongest possible terms for Brazil”, unlike his electoral rival, who was prone to viewing Beijing as an “ideological enemy”.
美国与巴西的关系自去年以来一直紧张，此前特朗普以所谓针对前总统博尔索纳罗（2019年至2023年任职）及巴西保守派的政治“猎巫行为”为由，呼吁对巴西征收关税并实施制裁。
Ties between the US and Brazil have been strained since last year, after Trump called for tariffs and sanctions over what he alleged was a political “witch hunt” against the elder Bolsonaro – who served from 2019 to 2023 – and conservatives in Brazil.
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗曾承诺将与美国建立更紧密的关系。今年5月，他在访问华盛顿期间会见了特朗普、副总统万斯和国务卿鲁比奥，特朗普称赞他在本月初首轮选举中的表现是“伟大的胜利”。
Flavio Bolsonaro had promised closer alignment with the United States. In May, he met Trump, Vice-President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a visit to Washington, with Trump praising his first-round election performance earlier this month as a “great victory”.
相比之下，卢拉多次警告华盛顿不要干涉选举，他在胜选演讲中宣称：“巴西不是任何人的后院。”
Lula, by contrast, has repeatedly warned Washington against election interference, declaring in his victory address that “Brazil is no one’s backyard”.
帕利亚里尼表示，虽然卢拉依然是一位务实主义者，但独立外交政策是“我不指望他在此让步的一个领域”。
Pagliarini said while Lula remained a pragmatist, an independent foreign policy was “one area that I do not expect him to cede any ground”.
杭州师范大学教授、拉美问题专家姜世学表示，预计在卢拉领导下，巴西与中国的合作——特别是在高科技项目方面——将继续推进。
Jiang Shixue, a professor at Hangzhou Normal University and an expert on Latin America, said cooperation with China – particularly in high-technology projects – was expected to move forward under Lula.
他补充说，华盛顿在竞选期间被视为的干涉行为疏远了巴西领导层，无意中创造了一个拉近与北京关系的动力。
He added that Washington’s perceived interference during the campaign had alienated the Brazilian leadership, creating an unintended incentive to draw closer to Beijing.
姜世学说：“美国伤害了卢拉的感情。在某种程度上，这为巴西进一步发展对华关系提供了动力。”
“The United States has hurt Lula’s feelings,” Jiang said. “To some extent, this provides momentum for Brazil to further develop relations with China.”Guo Jie, an associate professor at Peking University’s school of international studies, said Lula’s victory was “overall positive” for bilateral ties, noting that “communication and coordination mechanisms between the two governments were operating well”. She also pointed to common ground between the two nations on advancing Global South cooperation.
北京大学国际关系学院副教授郭洁表示，卢拉连任对双边关系“总体是积极的”，并指出“两国政府间的沟通协调机制运行良好”。她还指出，两国在推动全球南方合作方面存在共同立场。
Lula’s re-election also brings relief to the Brics grouping, easing earlier concerns that a right-wing victory could lead Brazil to abandon the emerging-market bloc.
卢拉的连任也让金砖国家集团松了一口气，缓解了此前人们担心的右翼获胜可能导致巴西退出这一新兴市场集团的情况。
“There were worries before that Brazil might withdraw from Brics if Lula were not elected, but that possibility has now faded,” Jiang said. “This is good news for Brics cooperation.”
姜说：“此前有人担心，如果卢拉没有当选，巴西可能会退出金砖国家，但现在这种可能性已经消退。这对金砖合作来说是个好消息。”“巴西将继续参与全球治理，并继续努力提升其国际地位。”
“Brazil’s participation in global governance and its efforts to raise its international standing will continue.”