以色列人将于明天投票，许多人对国家的未来感到战栗，无论他们支持哪位候选人。
Tomorrow Israelis will vote, many trembling for the future of their country, no matter which candidate they prefer.
文/格雷姆·伍德 当局势变得艰难，强者不再讲究策略。周日，民调对其在周二大选后能否继续担任以色列总理产生怀疑之际，本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在Instagram上发布了一条竞选收官论点：一张由AI生成的图片，显示特拉维夫被核爆摧毁，配文大意是：你宁愿让内塔尼亚胡连任，还是宁愿和家人一起被烧成灰烬？这段文字由评论员尤瓦尔·布隆伯格撰写，内塔尼亚胡表示赞同转发。
By Graeme Wood When the going gets tough, the tough don’t get subtle. Yesterday, with polls casting doubt on his continuing as Israel’s prime minister after Tuesday’s election, Benjamin Netanyahu posted a closing argument on Instagram: an AI-generated image of Tel Aviv destroyed by a nuclear blast, with accompanying text that asked, roughly, Would you prefer to reelect Netanyahu, or be incinerated along with your family? The text—written by the commentator Yuval Bloomberg and reproduced approvingly by Netanyahu—called all of the other campaign issues a “smokescreen,” and accused Netanyahu’s opponents of being so blinded by hatred that they would rather increase their chances of being burned alive than see their country’s political maestro win another election.
文中称所有其他竞选议题都是“烟幕弹”，并指责内塔尼亚胡的对手被仇恨蒙蔽了双眼，宁愿增加被活活烧死的几率，也不愿看到他们国家的政治大师再次当选。这条Instagram帖子警告称，如果你支持其他候选人，“你的手应该发抖”地去投票。
If you support another candidate, the Instagram post cautioned, “your hand should tremble” as you vote.
多年来，无论支持还是反对内塔尼亚胡的以色列人都建议不要轻易断定他已出局。这一建议依然有效。他拥有类似尼克松的能力，每当其政治生涯被宣判死亡时，都能以令人难以置信的更强姿态重新崛起。2023年10月7日，他的政府主管了以色列人实际遭遇的大屠杀，当时似乎一切都已结束。这一次，合力将他赶下台的政客群体多元且强大。
For years, Israelis both pro- and anti-Netanyahu have advised against counting him out. That advice remains sound. He has a Nixon-like ability to reemerge improbably stronger every time his political career has been declared over. It seemed over on October 7, 2023, when his government presided over an actual mass burning of Israelis. This time, the group of politicians cooperating to drive him from office is diverse and formidable.
内塔尼亚胡战时内阁的前观察员、退役将军加迪·艾森科特是他的主要对手。但两位结盟的前总理、中间派的亚伊尔·拉皮德和中右翼的纳夫塔利·贝内特，都是反内塔尼亚胡联盟的积极成员，另一位前将军亚伊尔·戈兰则从以色列剩余的左翼阵营发起攻击。这些联合努力已将内塔尼亚胡继续掌权的几率降至四分之一，截至今天上午。
A former observer in Netanyahu’s war cabinet, retired General Gadi Eisenkot, is his chief antagonist. But two allied former prime ministers, the centrist Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett on the center-right, are enthusiastic members of the anti-Netanyahu coalition, and another ex-general, Yair Golan, is attacking him from what remains of the Israeli left. These combined efforts have reduced Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in power to one in four, as of this morning.
这些相对渺茫的机会或许可以解释内塔尼亚胡过去三天来狂乱的信息发布。正如乔治·W·布什在唐纳德·特朗普发表“美国的大屠杀”演讲后所说，内塔尼亚胡的言论是“一些怪异的废话”。除了警告他的对手将过于受伊斯兰主义者控制而无法阻止特拉维夫被夷为平地外，内塔尼亚胡的宣称还包括以下断言：美国对以色列的军事援助“结束”只是“时间问题”；以色列将遭受国际制裁，被迫在没有过去那些保证其生存的朋友的情况下应对；而基于区块链的技术，如加密货币，可能提供规避制裁的途径。
These relatively long odds account, perhaps, for the wild messaging from Netanyahu during the past three days. Netanyahu’s statements have been, as George W. Bush said after Donald Trump’s “American carnage” speech, “some weird shit.”In addition to warning that his opponents will be too beholden to Islamists to stop the flattening of Tel Aviv, Netanyahu’s pronouncements include the following assertions: that it is “only a matter of time” before American military assistance for Israel is “over,” that Israel will be beset by international sanctions and compelled to cope without the friends who have in the past guaranteed its survival, and that blockchain-based technologies, such as cryptocurrencies, might provide ways around sanctions.
其他候选人将自己定位为能够在困难时期称职治理以色列的普通人。针对那条“原子弹”帖子，本内特呼吁“恢复我们的国际地位”，并宣布打算振兴科技部门，强迫以色列150万极端正统派公民中的数千人放弃全日制宗教学习，转而服兵役和就业。（内塔尼亚胡及其更偏右的联盟伙伴拒绝这些措施，并试图保留征兵豁免权。）
The other candidates have positioned themselves as normal people who can govern Israel competently in difficult times. Bennett replied to the atom-bomb post by calling for the “revival of our international standing,” and declaring his intention to improve the tech sector and force thousands of Israel’s 1.5 million ultra-Orthodox citizens to trade full-time religious study for military service and employment. (Netanyahu and his further-right coalition partners have refused these measures and tried to preserve draft exemptions.)
亚伊尔·拉皮德写道：“内塔尼亚胡已脱离轨道。我们必须送他回家。”内塔尼亚胡的论点是，他是非同寻常时代的非同寻常之人。如果时代还不够非同寻常，他将让时代变得非同寻常，通过抢先转变以色列的政治和联盟——远离美国、转向阿拉伯联合酋长国，远离西方金融体系、转向加密货币，这种做法让人联想到受制裁困扰的俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜等政权。
Netanyahu, Yair Lapid wrote, “has gone off the rails. We must send him home.”Netanyahu’s case is that he is an unusual man for unusual times. If the times are not unusual already, he will make them unusual, by shifting Israel’s politics and alliances preemptively—away from America and toward the United Arab Emirates, away from Western financial systems and toward crypto, in a manner reminiscent of sanctions-hobbled regimes like Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
这种令人恐惧的视角自有其逻辑。如果你认为以色列可以在熟悉的国际秩序中成为一个自由民主国家，且称职的体制和国际联盟是避免灾难的途径，那就从内塔尼亚胡对手的菜单中投票。如果你认为以色列注定要成为一个被孤立的国家，那就投给那个发布本国在核大屠杀中被烧毁图片的人。今天，世俗民族主义政党“以色列我们的家园”领导人、反内塔尼亚胡阵营成员阿维格多·利伯曼要求对内塔尼亚胡进行叛国调查，指控他故意“拖累以色列陷入战争”以提高选举胜算。
There is a logic to this frightening perspective. If you think Israel can be a liberal democracy in a familiar international order, and that competent institutions and international alliances are the way to stave off catastrophe, then vote from the menu of Netanyahu’s opponents. If you think Israel is doomed to being a pariah state, then vote for the guy posting images of his country torched in a nuclear holocaust. Today Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the secular-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party and a member of the anti-Netanyahu club, requested a treason investigation into Netanyahu for intentionally “dragging Israel into war” to improve his electoral chances.
这种毁灭性的威胁当然并非完全捏造而成。但伊朗公开扬言要消灭以色列，既可能是真实意图，也可能被用作政治借口，以回避那些导致许多以色列人痛恨内塔尼亚胡的问题。同一条 Instagram 帖子在警告核毁灭的同时，还贴心地列出了这些问题：内塔尼亚胡与卡塔尔政府的涉嫌关联、有报道称内塔尼亚胡在 10 月 7 日袭击前收到预警却未采取行动，以及他支持给予极端正统派全职托拉学生福利和免除兵役的待遇。
This threat of annihilation is not, of course, wholly concocted. But Iran’s open desire to annihilate Israel can be real and still be used as a political pretext to avoid the issues that have led so many Israelis to hate Netanyahu. The same Instagram post that warns of nuclear annihilation helpfully lists these issues: alleged links between Netanyahu and the government of Qatar, reports that Netanyahu received warnings before the October 7 attacks and did nothing, and his support for welfare and draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox full-time Torah students.
约有 10 万名此类极端正统派青年本应服兵役，但他们大多在研读塔木德，因此“太忙”，无法像其他犹太裔以色列人那样挤进坦克、在加沙作战。内塔尼亚胡对所有这些指控的回应，是将“末日论”调门调到最高，让哪怕最合理的政治批评也变得听不见。
About 100,000 such ultra-Orthodox are liable for military service, and most instead study Talmud and are therefore too busy to cram themselves into tanks and fight in Gaza like other Jewish Israelis. Netanyahu’s response to all of these accusations is to crank up the end-of-days volume, to make even the most reasonable criticisms of his politics inaudible.
在世俗以色列人中，最后这一不满引发了如此强烈的愤慨，以至于一些人似乎宁死也不愿投票给任何会维持免役政策的政客。这种愤慨源于一种看法：内塔尼亚胡（他本人在宗教上属于门外汉）急于向极端正统派政治机器中最极端的势力做出不可理喻的让步，以换取联盟中再多获得几个席位。主要的极端正统派政党是沙斯党和统一托拉犹太教党，两党均支持内塔尼亚胡，且一心一意要为尽可能多的托拉学生保住免役资格。
Among secular Israelis, the last of these gripes produces such bitterness that some seem willing to die rather than vote for a politician who would preserve the exemptions. The bitterness stems from the perception that Netanyahu (himself a religious novice) is eager to make unconscionable concessions to the most extreme elements of the ultra-Orthodox political machine in exchange for a few more seats in his coalition. The main ultra-Orthodox parties are Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), both pro-Netanyahu and monomaniacal about preserving exemptions for as many Torah students as possible.
要看清这一举动的愤世嫉俗，最直观的方式不是去衡量世俗以色列人的怨毒有多深，而是去听听那些不属于沙斯党和统一托拉犹太教党的极端正统派以色列人——即哈雷迪派（意为“在上帝面前战栗者”）的失望之声。哈雷迪公共党的候选人齐娃·格兰兹向我无奈地表示，那些“传统”政党对变革免疫，大多数哈雷迪派已准备好向前看，只要僵化的政治体制允许他们这样做。
The cynicism of this move is easiest to appreciate not by assaying the venom of secular Israelis but by hearing the dismay of ultra-Orthodox Israelis, also known as Haredim (those who “tremble” before God) unaligned with Shas and UTJ. Ziva Glanz, a candidate for the upstart Haredi Public party, told me with exasperation that the “legacy” parties were immune to change, and that most Haredim were ready to move on, if only the ossified political system would let them.
她的政党大体上站在内塔尼亚胡一边，乐意支持内塔尼亚胡对以色列安全的看法。“生存问题是生存问题，”她说。但他们依然想要改革，并认为内塔尼亚胡的政府及其合作伙伴在阻挠改革。她的政党支持减少免除兵役的托拉学生人数。格兰茨是一位拉比的妻子，她说，她认为以色列与真主党的战争中平民伤亡率低，是上帝因以色列致力于宗教学习而赐予的奇迹。
Her party is broadly in the Netanyahu camp, and her party is happy to support Netanyahu’s view of Israel’s security. “Existential problems are existential problems,” she said. But they nonetheless want reform, and see his government and its partners as stopping it. Her party supports reducing the number of draft-exempt Torah students. Glanz, the wife of a rabbi, says she thinks the low civilian-casualty rate in Israel’s war with Hezbollah was a miracle granted by God because of Israel’s commitment to religious study.
但她说，有1.2万名哈雷迪派犹太人声称在学习，其机构领取政府资金，实际上却“在披萨店闲逛”。他们应该去工作。“我们的社区很成功，”她说，“成功伴随着责任。”内塔尼亚胡对这种试图打破哈雷迪派政治格局、将哈雷迪派融入以色列国家建设的温和尝试的回应，是要求她的政党退让。
But she says there are 12,000 Haredim who purport to be studying, and whose institutions claim government funds, when in reality they are “hanging out in pizza shops.”They should be put to work. “Our community is a success,” she said, and “with success comes responsibility.”Netanyahu’s response to this modest attempt to disrupt Haredi politics and integrate Haredim into the Israeli national project has been to tell her party to back down.
1996年内塔尼亚胡首次赢得总理职位时，他以“缔造安全的和平”成功竞选——即通过以色列军事优势保障的和平，而非其对手所偏好的主要通过谈判或外交实现的和平。三十年后，“通过军事力量保障的安全和平”已成为如此具有战略吸引力的目标，以至于团结了他的对手——他们全都是安全强硬派——而内塔尼亚胡本人却已另寻他路。他曾承诺带来和平。现在他承诺，他的对手将带来毁灭。
When Netanyahu first won the premiership in 1996, he successfully campaigned on “making a safe peace”—peace guaranteed through Israeli military supremacy, rather than primarily through the negotiation or diplomacy preferred by his rivals. Three decades later, a “safe peace” guaranteed through military might has become so strategically desirable that it unites his rivals—security hawks, one and all—while Netanyahu himself has moved on. He once promised to bring peace. Now he promises that his opponents will bring annihilation.
在这个叙事中，以色列暴力毁灭迫在眉睫，以至于腐败、迎合和贪婪变成了微不足道的小缺点。但如果无视这些政治恶习，以更缓慢、不那么骇人听闻的方式毁灭以色列，会怎样？如果无限制的免役豁免、不愿审视过去的失败以及国际孤立，本身就是毁灭性的，又会怎样？明天以色列人将投票，许多人为国家的未来颤栗，无论他们支持哪位候选人。
In this account, Israel’s violent devastation is so imminent that corruption, pandering, and venality become mere foibles. But what if ignoring these political vices devastates Israel in slower, less lurid ways? What if limitless draft exemptions, unwillingness to scrutinize past failures, and international isolation are themselves devastating? Tomorrow Israelis will vote, many trembling for the future of their country, no matter which candidate they prefer.