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在塞尔维亚和匈牙利,青年力量的浪潮推翻根深蒂固的政府In Serbia and Hungary, groundswells of youthful energy topple entrenched governments

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人们庆祝塞尔维亚右翼政党塞尔维亚进步党(SNS)领导人亚历山大·武契奇在议会选举中承认败选,地点为塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德,时间为2026年10月25日星期日。(美联社照片/彼得·大卫·约瑟克)People celebrate after Aleksandar Vucic, leader of the right-wing Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) conceded defeat in the parliamentary election in Belgrade, Serbia, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)

塞尔维亚在总统亚历山大·武契奇承认败给学生支持的候选人后,出现了戏剧性转变。

Serbia has seen a dramatic shift after President Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat to student-backed candidates.

约瓦娜·盖茨、贾斯汀·斯派克 贝尔格莱德,塞尔维亚 —— 一年多来,塞尔维亚首都的居民无法进入市内最著名的公园之一,该公园位于议会和强硬右翼领导人亚历山大·武契奇的办公室之间。原因是:贝尔格莱德的这座公园被武契奇最狂热——也最暴力——的支持者围堵并占据,他们实际上充当了这位威权领导人的执行小队,负责恐吓乃至袭击日益壮大的反政府学生运动成员。

JOVANA GEC, JUSTIN SPIKE BELGRADE, Serbia — For over a year, residents of Serbia’s capital were blocked from entering one of the city’s most prominent parks, nestled between Parliament and the offices of the powerful right-wing leader, Aleksandar Vucic The reason: the park in Belgrade had been cordoned off and occupied by throngs of Vucic’s most ardent — and violent — supporters, an effective enforcer squad for the authoritarian leader tasked with intimidating and sometimes assaulting members of a growing anti-government student movement But after Vucic stunned the Balkan country Sunday evening by conceding defeat in an election against student-backed candidates, ecstatic young revelers filled the streets of Belgrade and ripped down the cordons around the encampment known as Caciland.

但在武契奇周日晚间令人震惊地承认在选举中败给学生支持的候选人后,狂喜的年轻人涌上贝尔格莱德街头,拆除了被称为“察奇兰”营地周围的警戒线。很快,路障被抛在一边,营地内的帐篷燃起大火,连同武契奇的权力一起化为灰烬。

Before long, the barricades lay tossed aside and the tents within went up in smoke, along with Vucic’s power.

这一地震般的转变,源于学生运动两年来的不懈组织和持续抗议。该运动指责克里姆林宫支持的武契奇日益专制、与有组织犯罪勾结以及腐败泛滥。这也呼应了近期在欧洲及其他地区挑战根深蒂固、反应迟钝的权力结构的其他自下而上、青年主导的抗议运动。就在邻国匈牙利,类似运动成功赶下了另一位盘踞已久的领导人。

The seismic shift came after two years of relentless organizing and sustained protests by the student movement, which accused the Kremlin-backed Vucic of increasing authoritarianism, connections to organized crime and runaway corruption It also echoed other bottom-up, youth-led protest movements that have recently challenged what they see as entrenched, unresponsive power structures in Europe and beyond. Close to home, in neighboring Hungary, they succeeded in ousting another entrenched leader.

匈牙利的回响 塞尔维亚这场民众学生运动源于对武契奇及其政府的愤怒,导火索是2024年诺维萨德火车站一座混凝土雨棚坍塌导致16人死亡。这引发了一波青年抗议浪潮,抗议者将坍塌归咎于车站翻修工程中的高层腐败和裙带关系。

Echoes of Hungary Serbia’s popular student movement grew out of anger at Vucic and his government since 16 people were killed in 2024 when a concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in Novi Sad That set off the wave of youth protests that blamed the collapse on high-level corruption and cronyism during renovation work at the station.

当武契奇周日承认失败、数万人走上街头庆祝时,现场景象与仅仅六个月前匈牙利亲俄总理欧尔班下台的情形惊人地相似。

When Vucic conceded defeat on Sunday and tens of thousands took to the streets to celebrate, the scenes bore remarkable resemblance to the ouster of pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Hungary just six months earlier.

曾经看似不可动摇的极右翼欧尔班16年统治,在对腐败和国家机构被架空的愤怒日益高涨中,凝聚在一位政治新人彼得·马扎尔身上——正如塞尔维亚的学生们一样,他在欧尔班最强势的农村地区不知疲倦地奔走了两年。

Where the far-right Orbán’s 16-year grip on power had once seemed unshakable, growing anger over corruption and capture of the country’s institutions coalesced around a political newcomer, Péter Magyar who — like Serbia’s students — spent two years relentlessly touring the countryside where Orbán was strongest.

马扎尔大力反腐倡廉,主张让匈牙利重回欧盟民主国家行列。当他的中间偏右的提萨党在选举中大获全胜时,这很大程度上归功于青年参与的激增,创下了匈牙利后社会主义时代最高的选举投票率。

Magyar campaigned heavily against corruption and in favor of bringing Hungary back into the fold of European Union democracies. When his center-right Tisza party won a landslide in the election it was largely thanks to a groundswell of youth participation that delivered the highest electoral turnout in Hungary’s post-socialist history.

正如塞尔维亚的学生运动一样,马扎尔的活动人士和支持者提出了恢复匈牙利机构的愿景——这些机构曾被欧尔班掏空,他们要建设一个回应公民需求、遵循法治的有效国家。

Like Serbia’s student movement, Magyar’s activists and supporters offered a vision of restoring Hungary’s institutions that had been hollowed out by Orbán building a functioning state that responded to citizens’ needs and adhered to the rule of law.

在塞尔维亚和匈牙利,许多人都表达了希望:推翻各自的威权政权,能为新一代政治代表和真正的民主参与打开大门。

Both in Serbia and Hungary, many have expressed hope that ousting their autocratic regimes would open up a chance for a new generation of political representation and genuine democratic participation.

周日和周一,马扎尔在社交媒体上向塞尔维亚学生表示祝贺,称“很高兴得知我们四月的胜利,在这场艰难斗争中给了他们多少力量。”“看到昨晚从塞尔维亚传出的那些画面,肯定不止我一个人感到怀旧吧?”他写道,指的是相隔六个月、贝尔格莱德和布达佩斯相似的欢庆场面。塞尔维亚学生可从匈牙利“后欧尔班时代”汲取经验自上台以来,马扎尔利用其政党在议会拥有的三分之二多数席位,逐步兑现了其承诺:解放媒体、让匈牙利重回欧盟阵营,并惩罚在欧尔班庇护下积累财富的其政权成员及盟友。

In social media posts on Sunday and Monday, Magyar congratulated Serbia’s students, saying he was “delighted to hear how much strength our victory in April had given them during this difficult struggle.”“Surely I wasn’t the only one feeling nostalgic when I saw those pictures coming out of Serbia last night?” he wrote, alluding to the joyful celebrations in Belgrade and Budapest six months apart. Serbian students could learn from Hungary’s post-Orbán experience Since he came to power, Magyar has used his party’s two-thirds parliamentary majority to gradually deliver on his promises to free the media bring Hungary back into the EU sphere and punish members of Orbán’s regime and their allies who had accumulated wealth under his patronage.

塞尔维亚青年运动如今面临着恢复遭受重创的民主与制度这一艰巨任务,却不具备马扎尔在匈牙利享有的宪法多数优势。他们的“学生名单”候选人涵盖各领域专家,但鲜有政治或公职经验。未来总理人选仍是个谜。

Serbia’s youth movement now faces their own daunting task of restoring a ravaged democracy and institutions, but without the benefit of the constitutional majority that Magyar enjoys in Hungary. Their Students’ List of candidates includes various experts in their fields but with little or no experience in politics or state jobs. The name of the future prime minister remains a mystery.

“今天我们在庆祝……但明天,工作开始了,”学生名单候选人之一拉多米尔·萨伊西奇表示。

“Today we are celebrating … but tomorrow, the job starts,” said Radomir Saicic, one of the candidates on the students’ ticket.

改革如何推进将决定该运动成败。多年来安插在安全机构的武契奇忠诚者,加上一个组织严密的宣传机器,极可能试图破坏这一努力,因为武契奇周日宣布将从反对派立场出发,对抗新当局。青年抗议蔓延至阿尔巴尼亚及更远地区青年抗议近期震动了另一巴尔干国家阿尔巴尼亚,学生团体为争取教育改革发起的行动已演变为更广泛的反政府情绪——核心在于对一项与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普女婿贾里德·库什纳有关的重大开发项目的愤怒。

How the reform will play out will determine the success of the movement. Vucic’s loyalists installed over the years in the security services, coupled with a well-organized propaganda machine, are likely to try to undermine the effort as Vucic on Sunday announced a struggle from the opposition against the new authorities. Youth protests spread further south to Albania and beyond Youth protests have recently rocked another Balkan country, Albania, where actions by student groups seeking education reforms have morphed into broader anti-government sentiment— largely centered on anger over a major development project linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner Sustained demonstrations against the long-serving socialist government have escalated into violent clashes on the streets of the capital Tirana, with protesters calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Edi Rama— another Vucic ally — over allegations of widespread corruption.

针对长期执政的社会党政府的持续示威在首都地拉那街头升级为暴力冲突,抗议者要求总理埃迪·拉马——武契奇的另一盟友——因涉嫌大规模腐败而辞职。防暴警察以催泪瓦斯和水炮回应。

Riot police have responded with tear gas and water cannons.

这些冲突发生之际,社会动荡已让欧洲街头从法国、意大利延烧至西班牙和葡萄牙,导火索是年轻人对公共教育现状、社会服务以及高昂住房成本的不满。

Those clashes came as social unrest has set Europe’s streets ablaze from France and Italy to Spain and Portugal, fueled by youth frustration over the state of public education, social services and the high cost of housing.

西班牙德乌斯托大学社会学教授玛丽亚·西尔韦斯特雷表示,欧洲年轻人正经历“强烈的不确定感和失控感”,一旦出现特定条件,“火花会突然被点燃,能够引导这种不满并驱使人们走上街头。”

María Silvestre, professor of sociology at the University of Deusto in Spain, said young Europeans are experiencing “a strong sense of uncertainty and a lack of control,” and that when specific conditions arise, “a spark suddenly ignites that is capable of channeling that discontent and driving people into the streets.”

这是关于新一代接班的故事 在一篇选后分析中,塞尔维亚教授德扬·帕夫洛维奇周一在X平台上写道,学生们缺乏政治经验,也未卷入任何可疑的商业交易,这反而“成了他们最大的战略优势”。帕夫洛维奇说,武契奇则已变得“文化上过时了”,因为拥有自己价值观和方式的新一代已登上舞台。

It is about a new generation taking over In a post-election analysis, Serbian professor Dejan Pavlovic wrote on X on Monday that the students’ lack of political experience or involvement in any dubious business dealings had “become their greatest strategic advantage.”Vucic, on the other hand, had become “culturally obsolete,” Pavlovic said, as the new generation with their own values and ways stepped into the scene.

下一个挑战将是必须在年底前举行的总统大选。学生们必须避免让政治分歧分裂他们的运动。一些高度敏感的议题包括与欧盟和俄罗斯的关系,但主要焦点将是应对腐败。

The next challenge will be a presidential election that must be held by the end of the year. The students will have to avoid allowing political divisions that might split their movement. Some highly sensitive issues include relations with the European Union and Russia, but the primary focus will be dealing with corruption.

“武契奇章鱼的触手已伸遍全国。拔除它们、处理它们,将是一项极其艰巨的任务,”政治评论员伊万·米伦科维奇警告说。

“Tentacles of Vucic’s octopus have spread around the entire country. Taking them out, dealing with them, is going to be one hell of a job,” warned political commentator Ivan Milenkovic.

尽管如此,帕夫洛维奇写道,塞尔维亚学生的成功“挑战了关于击败根深蒂固的在位者所需资源的传统假设”,并将成为学术研究的课题。

Nonetheless, Pavlovic wrote, the Serbian students’ success “challenges conventional assumptions about the resources necessary to defeat an entrenched incumbent” and will become the subject of scholarly research.

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