评级机构预计，南非债务占国内生产总值的比重将在截至2029年3月的年度重新开始上升，主要原因是经济增长疲弱，这与南非国家财政部和穆迪评级的预测相左。
Ratings expects South Africa’s debt as a percentage of gross domestic product to start rising again in the year through March 2029 mainly due to weak economic growth, challenging National Treasury and Moody’s Ratings’ projections.
惠誉仍预计，未来两个财年债务将稳定在约占GDP的78%，这是其6月决定将南非评级上调至BB（较投资级低两档）、展望稳定的关键因素。惠誉在周一的一份声明中表示。“然而，与政府不同，我们预计2028-29年债务占GDP的比重将非常小幅地再次上升”至79%。
Fitch still expects debt to stabilize at about 78% of GDP over the next two fiscal years, a key factor behind its June decision to upgrade South Africa to BB, two notches below investment grade, with a stable outlook, it said in a statement on Monday. “Nevertheless, unlike the government, we expect debt to GDP to very modestly rise again” in 2028-29 to 79% of GDP, it said.
南非财政部长伊诺克·戈东瓜纳上周在中期预算声明中表示，债务已在2025-26年达到占GDP 78.4%的峰值，并将到2029-30年降至76.6%。
South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in his medium-term budget statement last week said that debt peaked at 78.4% of GDP in 2025-26 and will decline to 76.6% by 2029-30.
穆迪也认为债务处于下行轨道。该公司的衡量指标包含政府对国有企业的大部分担保，其周五表示，债务已在上一财年见顶，并将出现“明显但渐进”的下降。
Moody’s also sees debt on a downward path. The company, whose measure includes most government guarantees to state-owned enterprises, said Friday that debt peaked in the last fiscal year and is set for a “clear, albeit gradual” decline.
穆迪将此次预算更新描述为信用利好，因为它表明，尽管油价上涨、货币政策收紧且名义GDP增长弱于2月时的假设，财政整顿仍在按计划推进。但穆迪警告称，该国吸收冲击的财政空间有限。穆迪也将南非的评级定在较投资级低两档，但展望为正面。
Moody’s described the budget update as credit positive as it shows fiscal consolidation remains on track despite higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy and weaker nominal GDP growth than assumed in February. But it cautioned that the nation has limited fiscal space to absorb shocks. Moody’s also has South Africa two notches below investment grade but with a positive outlook.
穆迪对南非的下一次评级审查预计在11月27日，惠誉评级则在12月11日。
Its next review of South Africa is expected on Nov. 27 and Fitch Ratings’ on Dec. 11.