托马斯·博蒙特 爱荷华州得梅因 — 共和党担心，自由意志党候选人可能会在今年一些最关键的美国参议院选举中分流选票，从而可能导致他们失去对参议院的控制权。
THOMAS BEAUMONT DES MOINES, Iowa — Republicans are worried that Libertarian candidates could siphon away votes in some of this year’s most consequential U.S. Senate elections, potentially costing them control of the chamber.
这在得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和爱荷华州尤为令人担忧，这些州正准备迎接势均力敌的竞争，即使第三党获得几个百分点的选票，也足以改变结果。
It’s a particular concern in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa, which are bracing for razor-thin contests in which even a few percentage points for a third party can be enough to swing the outcome.
尽管所有这些州都倾向共和党，但一些党内策略师表示，对唐纳德·特朗普总统的不满可能会导致一些保守派投出抗议票。一场不得人心的对伊朗战争以及特朗普对行政权力的扩张 — 这两个问题触动了美国右翼中反建制派的神经 — 可能会助推自由意志党关于不干涉主义和限制中央集权的主张。
Although all of those states lean Republican, a number of party strategists say unhappiness with President Donald Trump could lead some conservatives to cast protest ballots. An unpopular war with Iran and Trump’s expansion of executive power — two issues that grate on an anti-establishment slice of the American right — could fuel the Libertarian Party’s message of nonintervention and limited centralized authority.
“我们认为，自由意志党人可能会吸引足够多的选票，从而影响这些竞选中的一些结果，”共和党前俄亥俄州议员吉恩·克雷布斯说，他正在从事一个旨在削弱搅局候选人影响力的项目。
“Libertarians, we believe, could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races,” said Republican former Ohio state lawmaker Gene Krebs, who is working on a project to diminish the impact of spoiler candidates.
特朗普定于周二在得克萨斯州、周三在俄亥俄州、周日在爱荷华州举行集会。
Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Texas on Tuesday, Ohio on Wednesday and Iowa on Sunday.
共和党参议院竞选官员表示，他们对爱荷华州的担忧较小，因为自由意志党人并不经常出现在该州的选票上，他们更担心俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和得克萨斯州。这些官员因讨论内部策略而要求匿名。
Republican Senate campaign officials said they were less concerned about Iowa, where Libertarians are not a regular presence on the ballot, than they are about Ohio, Kansas and Texas. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.
在俄亥俄州，自由意志党前全国主席比尔·雷德帕斯正在与共和党参议员乔恩·休斯特和民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗竞争。
In Ohio, former Libertarian Party national chairman Bill Redpath is running against Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown .
“自由意志党候选人很容易从共和党那里拉走足够多的选票，导致民主党人获胜，”克雷布斯说。
“The Libertarian can easily pull enough votes away from the Republican so that the Democrat wins,” Krebs said.
第三方也可能对民主党不利。一个与共和党有联系的组织分发传单宣传一位社会主义候选人，这显然是试图拉走对布朗的支持。根据联邦披露报告，发出这些传单的“俄亥俄州履行承诺政治行动委员会”从“保守派美国人政治行动委员会”收到了250万美元。
Third parties could work against Democrats, too. An organization with Republican ties has distributed fliers promoting a socialist candidate, an apparent effort to pull support away from Brown. Enough Promises Ohio PAC, which sent out the fliers, received $2.5 million from Conservative Americans PAC, according to federal disclosure reports.
在堪萨斯州，自由意志党人大卫·格雷厄姆正在参选，共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔与民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿陷入胶着。
Libertarian David Graham is running in Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is locked in a close race with Democrat Adam Hamilton .
这是格雷厄姆的第二次竞选。他在共和党参议员杰里·莫兰以23个百分点优势获胜的竞选中获得了3%的选票。
This is Graham’s second campaign. He received 3% of the vote in a race Republican Sen. Jerry Moran won by 23 percentage points.
在得克萨斯州，自由意志党人泰德·布朗在2024年仅获得2.3%的选票，当时共和党参议员泰德·克鲁兹轻松连任。然而，今年的竞争更加激烈，民主党提名人詹姆斯·塔拉里科将与共和党得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿对决。
In Texas, Libertarian Ted Brown received only 2.3% of the vote in 2024, when Republican Sen. Ted Cruz easily glided to another term. However, the race is tighter this year, with Democratic nominee James Talarico facing off with Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
得克萨斯州共和党前执行主任韦恩·汉密尔顿表示，帕克斯顿的法律和道德问题历史可能会让一些保守派寻找另一个选择。
Wayne Hamilton, a former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said Paxton’s history of legal and ethical problems could have some conservatives looking for another choice.
“没人是投给自由意志党人的。这是一种抗议投票，”汉密尔顿说。“他们会那样投票，因为他们不想投给帕克斯顿，而这是一个选项。”布朗是来自加利福尼亚州的前保险理赔员，长期以来一直是自由意志党的活动家，追溯到1988年支持罗恩·保罗的总统竞选。他说，一些保守派选民已经背弃了特朗普。
“Nobody’s voting for the Libertarian. It’s a protest vote,” Hamilton said. “They are going to be voting that way because they don’t want to vote for Paxton, and this is an option.”Brown is a former insurance adjuster from California who has been a longtime activist in the Libertarian Party going back to supporting Ron Paul’s presidential campaign in 1988. He said some conservative voters have turned on Trump.
“一些自由意志主义者支持他，以为他是一位反战候选人。而这正是他失去他们的地方，”布朗说。“但我的观点，以及许多自由意志主义者的观点是，三权分立非常重要。这位总统在帝制总统制下攫取了过多的权力。”布朗对自己能与帕克斯顿和塔拉里科竞争该席位不抱幻想。他的竞选预算约为3万美元，已在广告上花费7000美元，在自由意志主义者在近期选举中表现较好的得克萨斯州四个县的流媒体服务上投放了一则广告。
“Some libertarians supported him thinking he was an anti-war candidate. And that’s where he’s lost them,” Brown said. “But my view and a lot of libertarians’ view is that separation of powers is very important. This president has seized way too much power in this imperial presidency.”Brown is under no illusions that he can compete with Paxton and Talarico for the seat. His campaign has a budget of about $30,000 and has spent $7,000 on advertising, running a spot on streaming services in four Texas counties where Libertarians have fared better in recent elections.
据广告追踪公司AdImpact统计，相比之下，自5月26日初选以来，塔拉里科、帕克斯顿及其关联团体在广告上的总支出约为3.9亿美元。
That’s compared with the combined advertising total of roughly $390 million that Talarico, Paxton and aligned groups have spent since the May 26 primary , according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
布朗在2024年获得了267,039张选票，创下了其政党在得州参议员竞选中的纪录。他说，11月3日对他来说如果是个好日子，那将是他能达到那个票数，在投票率较低的中期选举中，这必定会带来更高的得票率。
Brown got 267,039 votes in 2024, a record for his party in a Texas Senate race. A great day for him on Nov. 3, he said, would be if he matched that, certain to net a higher percentage in the lower-turnout midterm.
布朗驳回了他说共和党人经常指责他的观点，即他只是在搅局破坏帕克斯顿的机会。
Brown dismissed the criticism he says he gets regularly from Republicans that he is merely spoiling Paxton’s chances.
“他们本可以通过提名一位更好的候选人来避免这个问题，”他说。布朗说，他对民主党人也讲同样的话。
“They could avoid that problem by nominating a better candidate,” he said. Brown said he tells Democrats the same thing.
“你无法搅局一个已经烂透了的体制，”他说。“有很多人在投抗议票，并且有充分的理由这么做。”
“You can’t spoil a system that’s already rotten,” he said. “There are a lot of people making a protest vote, and there’s good reason to.”