随着中期选举临近，民调似乎越来越显示，共和党不仅会失利，而且会惨败。一些最新民调显示，民主党在众议院最多可赢得 240 个席位，并轻松重夺参议院控制权。的确，民主党认为今年是他们的年份。
The closer we get to the end of the midterms, the more polls seem to show that Republicans won’t just lose, but lose in a rout. Some of the latest have Democrats winning as many as 240 seats in the House and easily retaking control of the Senate. Indeed, Democrats believe this is their year.
党内较少谈论的——但或许同样重要的一点是——政治独立人士也认为今年是他们的年份。如果真是这样，他们若在国会山重掌大权，其崛起最终对民主党造成的伤害可能大于益处。
Less talked about by the party — but perhaps just as important — is that political independents believe it’s their year too. And if so, their rise could ultimately do more harm than good for Democrats if they return to power on Capitol Hill.
请看四场备受瞩目的参议院竞选，这些州在上届大选中特朗普总统大多以两位数优势获胜。参选的独立候选人包括内布拉斯加州的丹·奥斯本、爱达荷州的托德·阿基利斯、南达科他州的布莱恩·本格斯和蒙大拿州的塞思·博德纳。（我不把阿拉斯加州参选的独立“搅局者”丹·J·沙利文算在内。）所有这些竞选都被视为胜算渺茫。尽管如此，在其中三场竞选中，民主党候选人已退出，为独立人士让出赛道，因为红州选民对民主党品牌极为反感，独立人士击败共和党对手的机会更大。
Consider four high-profile Senate races in states that President Donald Trump mostly won by double digits in the last election. The independent candidates running include Dan Osborn in Nebraska, Todd Achilles in Idaho, Brian Bengs in South Dakota, and Seth Bodnar in Montana. (I’m not counting the independent spoiler, Dan J. Sullivan, running in Alaska.) All of these races are considered longshots. Nevertheless, in three of them, Democratic candidates have dropped out, clearing the field for independents who have a better chance at beating a Republican opponent, given how negatively red-state voters feel about the Democratic Party’s brand. As such, some in the party have come to see Osborn, Achilles, Bengs and Bodnar as a sort of safety net for the midterms.
因此，党内一些人开始把奥斯本、阿基利斯、本格斯和博德纳视为中期选举的一张“保险牌”。如果民主党在俄亥俄州或得克萨斯州等其他参议院竞选中失利，能否阻止共和党拥有维持多数席位所需的席次，可能取决于选民在这四个以农村为主的州如何决定。
If Democrats fall short in other Senate races, such as in Ohio or Texas, preventing Republicans from having the numbers to keep the majority could depend on what voters decide in these four mostly rural states. As Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, recently told NPR: “I believe in the Democratic Party. I also believe in building coalitions so we can win elections and then do the work of the people. And if that means creating coalitions with independents in some of our states, then that's exactly what we need to do.”
正如内布拉斯加州民主党主席简·克利布最近对美国国家公共电台（NPR）所说：“我相信民主党。我也相信建立联盟，以便赢得选举，然后为人民做事。如果这意味着在我们一些州与独立人士建立联盟，那正是我们需要做的。”这当然对民主党短期有利。
That’s certainly good for Democrats in the short term.
从长远来看，然而，该党可能正在给政治独立人士一个机会，让他们夺取更多权力，并对美国的两党政治体制施加新的影响力。
In the long term, however, the party could be handing political independents an opportunity to seize more power and exert new levels of influence over America’s two-party political system.
如果当选参议员，所有四名候选人都表示，他们不打算参加民主党或共和党的党团会议。这将标志着与目前参议院中两名独立人士——缅因州的安格斯·金和佛蒙特州的伯尼·桑德斯——的做法发生重大转变。他们目前都参加民主党的党团会议。相反，有传言称将组建一个独立党团，在参议院与两党合作。
If elected to the Senate, all four candidates have indicated that they don’t plan to caucus with Democrats or Republicans. That would mark a significant shift from what the two independents currently in the Senate — Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont — do now. They both caucus with Democrats. Instead, there’s talk of forming an independent caucus that would work with both parties in the Senate.
博德纳最近表示：“我认为，独立人士或多位独立人士能够合作，即使是与那些可能不退出自己党团但组建独立思考派系的人合作，也拥有真正的力量，可以推动这个国家迫切需要的常识性解决方案。”
“I think there is real power in an independent or multiple independents that can work together, even with people who maybe don’t leave their caucus but form an independent-minded bloc, that can move forward common-sense solutions that this country so desperately needs,” Bodnar said recently.
如果这听起来耳熟，演员马修·麦康纳在10月下旬的一段病毒式传播视频中也提出过类似论点。
If this sounds familiar, actor Matthew McConaughey made a similar argument in a viral video in late October.
他坚持认为，在中期选举中支持独立候选人不会是“浪费选票”，因为这将有助于让国会“回归中间地带，那里居住着大多数美国人的价值观”，此言论激怒了知名民主党人和普通党员。并提到前参议员乔·曼钦在政策上与民主党的多次角力，麦康纳请观众“想象一下，如果同样的力量掌握在三四个人手中，且不属于任何政党”。这真的是美国人想要的吗？要破坏两党政治体制？
Irritating prominent Democrats and rank-and-file party members alike, he insisted that supporting independent candidates in the midterms would not be “a wasted vote” because it would help bring Congress “back to the middle, where most American values live.”And referring to former Senator Joe Manchin’s many tussles with Democrats over policy, McConaughey asked viewers to “imagine that same power held by three or four together, owned by no party at all.”Is this what Americans really want? To undermine the two-party political system?
诚然，民调显示，民众对政府机构（包括国会）的不信任日益加深，对一个常陷入僵局的政治体制普遍感到幻灭。
To be sure, polls show growing distrust in government institutions (Congress included) and widespread disillusionment with a political system often mired in gridlock.
自1988年以来，独立倾向的选民人数几乎每年都超过共和党和民主党选民。最近这一比例有所上升，截至去年，45%的美国人自认为是独立选民——创历史新高。盖洛普将此归因于年轻一代美国人——Z世代、千禧一代，甚至部分X世代——他们随着年龄增长，依然持续回避两党制。
And independent-minded voters have outnumbered both Republicans and Democrats almost every year since 1988. There’s also been an uptick lately, with 45% of Americans identifying as independents as of last year — a record high. Gallup attributes this to younger Americans — Gen Z, millennials and even some in Generation X — who have continued to shun the two-party system, even as they have gotten older.
与此同时，拉美裔作为美国增长最快的人口群体之一，也已凝聚成一个关键的摇摆选民群体，他们倾向于不以党派立场看待政治。值得注意的是，根据盖洛普的数据，独立选民在政治倾向上确实更偏向左翼而非右翼。
Meanwhile, Latinos, one of the fastest-growing segments of the US population, have also gelled into a critical bloc of swing voters who tend to view politics independent of partisanship. Independents, it should be noted, do tend to lean politically more left than right, according to Gallup.
尽管如此，如果独立选民被视为打破党派僵局的解药，今年竞选参议员的候选人要说服选民相信这一点，依然面临艰难的挑战。
Still, if independents are the supposed solution to partisan gridlock, the candidates running for Senate this year still face an uphill battle convincing voters of that.
《库克政治报告》将所有四场参议院竞选评为“稳固”共和党，或充其量只是“倾向”共和党。在南达科他州，共和党和独立选民人数远超民主党，本格斯落后现任共和党参议员迈克·朗兹8个百分点。在蒙大拿州，一场三方角逐中，一名民主党候选人拒绝退选，这可能会毁掉博德纳尔的竞选前景，尽管这位独立候选人已获得包括前参议员乔恩·特斯特在内的多位知名民主党人的背书。
Cook Political Report has rated all four Senate races as “solid” or, at best, “lean” Republican. In South Dakota, where Republican and independent voters vastly outnumber Democrats, Bengs is trailing his opponent, incumbent GOP Senator Mike Rounds, by 8 points. And in Montana, a three-way race that includes a Democrat who has refused to drop out might doom Bodnar’s candidacy, even though the independent has landed several endorsements from prominent Democrats, including former Senator Jon Tester.
一些民调则为独立候选人描绘了更乐观的图景。例如在内布拉斯加州，YouGov民调显示，奥斯本与现任共和党参议员皮特·里克茨的竞选势均力敌。而在全国政治环境持续对共和党不利的背景下，似乎一切皆有可能。
Some polls have painted a rosier picture for the independent candidates. In Nebraska, for example, YouGov found that the race between Osborn and incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is a dead heat. And with a national political environment that continues to deteriorate for Republicans, it does seem like anything can happen.
但如果民主党的“蓝色浪潮”不包含这些带有蓝色色彩的独立人士，对民主党可能更有利。
But Democrats might be better off if their “blue wave” doesn’t include bluish independents.