民主党主要的参议院超级政治行动委员会正私下告诉其顶级捐助者，得克萨斯州是他们翻转深红参议院席位的最佳机会，其次是俄亥俄州，该州的选情仍然胶着。
Democrats' main Senate super PAC is privately telling top donors that Texas offers their best shot at flipping a deep-red Senate seat, followed by Ohio, where the race remains close.
- 参议院多数党政治行动委员会还认为，在艾奥瓦州和阿拉斯加州取得胜利也是可以实现的，尽管结果可能需要更长时间才能明朗。
• Senate Majority PAC also sees victories in Iowa and Alaska as within reach, though the outcomes could take longer to become clear. Why it matters:
为何重要：民主党人对周二的选举日越来越有信心——并向他们最大的捐助者分享了这种有保留的乐观情绪。
Democrats are increasingly confident about Election Day on Tuesday — and sharing their qualified optimism with their biggest donors.
- 要夺回参议院，民主党人需要赢下这四个州中的两个——这四个州都是特朗普在2024年以两位数优势赢下的——并翻转北卡罗来纳州和缅因州，同时避免在密歇根州出现意外失利。
• To retake the Senate, Democrats need to win two of those four states — all of which Trump won by double digits in 2024 — flip North Carolina and Maine, and avoid an upset in Michigan.
- 参议院多数党政治行动委员会主席JB·波尔施在本周的一次私下捐助者简报会上，逐一分析各州选情时，对民主党将从共和党手中夺回参议院控制权表示了信心。
• JB Poersch, president of Senate Majority PAC, projected confidence that Democrats will wrest control of the Senate from Republicans during a private donor briefing this week as he walked through the races state by state.
- 他还提醒捐助者，堪萨斯州——连共和党人都深感担忧——是特朗普在2024年以约16个百分点优势赢下的州。但该州如今已进入争夺范围。
• He also reminded donors that Kansas, where even Republicans are deeply worried, is a state Trump won by roughly 16 points in 2024. But it's in play. What they're saying:
他们怎么说：“这与我们数周来公开和私下一直在说的相符。得克萨斯州有乐观的迹象，但选情仍然难分胜负，艾奥瓦州、俄亥俄州和阿拉斯加州也是如此，”参议院多数党政治行动委员会发言人劳伦·弗伦奇说。
"This matches what we've been saying publicly and privately for weeks. There are signs of optimism in Texas, but it remains a toss-up, as do Iowa, Ohio and Alaska," said Lauren French, a spokesperson for SMP.
- “民主党方面出现了积极的动向，但必须记住，战场地图上的每一个席位所在州都以两位数优势投票支持了唐纳德·特朗普，”她说。
• "There is positive movement for Democrats, but it is critical to remember that every seat on the battleground map voted for Donald Trump by double digits," she said.
- “这些都是深红州，我们专注于带领他们冲过终点线，以便参议院能够努力为那些被生活成本危机压垮的家庭提供真正的纾困。”
• "These are deep red states and we're focused on bringing them over the finish line so the Senate can work to provide real relief to families who are being crushed by the cost-of-living crisis."
大局观：得克萨斯州自1988年的劳埃德·本特森以来，再未选出过民主党参议员。
The big picture: Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
- 民主党人本以为他们会在2018年终结这一荒局，并让自己迷上了时任众议员贝托·奥鲁尔克，后者以2.6个百分点的差距输给了参议员特德·克鲁兹。
• Democrats thought they'd end the drought in 2018 and let themselves fall for then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points.
- 四年后，奥罗克再次试图证明民主党人能够在全州选举中获胜。他在州长竞选中以近11个百分点的差距落败。
• Four years later, O'Rourke tried again to prove a Democrat could win statewide in Texas. He lost the governor's race by nearly 11 percentage points.
- 这一次，民主党人推出了州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科，他在近期民调中以微弱优势领先共和党提名人肯·帕克斯顿。
• This time around, Democrats have state Rep. James Talarico, who's narrowly led recent polls against Republican nominee Ken Paxton. Zoom in:
深入来看：在华盛顿这个反常晴朗的一周里，私人民调和零散数据在户外咖啡馆里通过手机四处流传，两党都在寻找一个可以讲给自己、讲给候选人和金主听的说法。每一张桌子上，基本上都分成两个阵营：
During this unseasonably sunny week in Washington, private polls and scraps of data are flying from phone to phone at outdoor cafes as both parties search for a story to tell themselves, their candidates and their donors. At every table, there are essentially two camps:
- 悲观派找理由否定每一丝希望。共和党人担心出现“红色尖叫”。
• The pessimists find reasons to dismiss every glimmer of hope. Republicans are worried about a "red scream."
- 乐观派则无视那些可能扼杀他们胜利感觉的不利事实。一些民主党人“乐观得想吐”。
• The optimists blow past inconvenient facts that might kill their victory vibes. Some Democrats are "nauseously optimistic."
实际上，两党的乐观派和悲观派——都在没有仪表的情况下飞行。
In reality, optimists and pessimists — in both parties — are flying without instruments.
- 内部民调彼此相差一两个或三个百分点，敲门拉票的数据杂乱无章，提前投票的数字几乎可以被包装成任何说法。
• Internal polls contradict each other by a point or three, door-knocking data is noisy, and early-vote numbers can be spun to tell almost any story.
归根结底：在某种程度上，大金主们知道自己并不具备全知全能的能力，无法像当年解读IPO的S-1文件那样清晰地读懂政治格局。
The bottom line: On some level, big-dollar donors know they lack the omniscience to read the political landscape with the same clarity they once brought to an IPO's S-1 filing.
- 但他们也认为自己理应获得比公开信息更好的数据和分析。
• But they also believe they deserve better data and analysis than what's publicly available.
- 至少，他们希望私人简报能给他们一个比认识论上可能做到的更清晰的图景。
• At the very least, they want private briefings to give them a clearer picture than is epistemologically possible.
- 于是简报会纷至沓来。超级政治行动委员会的挑战在于回复所有电话——并给金主们希望，同时又不做出无法兑现的承诺。
• Hence the flurry of briefings. The challenge for the super PACs is to return all the calls — and give donors hope without making promises they can't keep.