
总统阿贝拉多·德拉埃斯普里耶拉在国会面临就任以来的首次重大考验,他正寻求支持大幅削减开支,以安抚投资者并为与国际货币基金组织达成协议铺平道路。
President Abelardo de la Espriella faces his first major test in Congress as he seeks support for deep spending cuts to reassure investors and pave the way for a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
德拉埃斯普里耶拉竞选总统时承诺打破传统政党以及通常支撑哥伦比亚政府运作的利益交换。如今,他却需要这些政党通过一项旨在解决数十年来最大财政赤字的方案,政府表示该方案将于本周提交立法者审议。
De la Espriella won the presidency pledging to break with traditional parties and the horse-trading that normally underpins Colombian governments. Now he needs those parties to pass a package aimed at tackling the widest fiscal deficit in decades, which the government says will be sent to lawmakers this week.
本月早些时候,德拉埃斯普里耶拉解职了内政部长罗德里戈·拉拉,使这一挑战变得更加艰巨。拉拉是一位善于建立共识、负责在国会推进政府议程的人物。因2027年预算出现程序性错误,迫使政府以法令形式颁布支出计划,拉拉因此被免职。
The challenge became harder this month when De la Espriella fired Interior Minister Rodrigo Lara, a consensus-builder responsible for steering the government’s agenda through Congress. Lara was ousted after a procedural error over the 2027 budget forced the government to enact the spending plan by decree.
在哥伦比亚,内政部长是政府与国会的首席政治联络人。拉拉的继任者亚历杭德罗·奥尔多涅斯是一位宗教保守派,其意识形态斗争的历史可能会使联盟建设复杂化,而此时政府正需要票数来通过可能不受欢迎的开支削减。
In Colombia, the interior minister serves as the government’s chief political liaison with Congress. Lara’s replacement, Alejandro Ordóñez, is a religious conservative whose history of ideological battles could complicate coalition-building at a time when the government needs votes for potentially unpopular spending cuts.
“我们需要一位能够搭建桥梁、寻求共识、促进对话的内政部长,我不确定亚历杭德罗·奥尔多涅斯是否能胜任此役,”保守派民主中间党参议员安德烈斯·福雷罗表示,该党总体支持现政府。
“We need an interior minister who can build bridges, seek agreements and facilitate dialogue, and I’m not sure Alejandro Ordóñez is the person who can do that,” said Andrés Forero, a senator from the conservative Democratic Center party, which generally supports the administration.
对投资者而言,利害攸关。德拉埃斯普里耶拉正寻求国会支持一项价值超过国内生产总值2%的财政调整方案,以应对明年局势。财政部长米格尔·戈麦斯表示,若无此举,赤字将超过GDP的9%。
The stakes are high for investors. De la Espriella is seeking congressional support for a fiscal adjustment worth more than 2% of gross domestic product next year. Finance Minister Miguel Gómez has said that without it, the deficit would exceed 9% of GDP.
德拉埃斯普里耶拉称之为“救援法案”的该方案,依靠削减开支而非增税。政府还计划动用多边贷款方资金,并希望该调整能减少明年预算中约280亿美元的海外借款。
The “rescue bill,” as De la Espriella calls it, relies on spending cuts rather than tax increases. The government also plans to tap multilateral lenders and hopes the adjustment will reduce the roughly $28 billion of overseas borrowing budgeted for next year.
奥多涅斯所持的争议立场使他与大量议员意见相左,尤其是左翼和中间派议员。他反对同性婚姻和扩大LGBT权利,并曾将堕胎称为“一场残忍而无声的当代大屠杀”。他还承认年轻时曾参与焚书仪式,焚烧那些被视为不道德的作家的作品。
Ordóñez has taken controversial positions that have put him at odds with large numbers of lawmakers, especially on the left and center. He has opposed same-sex marriage and the expansion of LGBT rights and once described abortion as a “cruel and silent contemporary holocaust.”He also acknowledged taking part in book-burning ceremonies in his youth, of the works of authors deemed immoral.
据驻波哥大的政治顾问佩德罗·维韦罗斯称,救助法案很可能不足以解决问题,这将迫使政府明年在可能更加艰难的国会斗争中寻求额外收入。
The rescue bill is unlikely to be enough, forcing the government to seek additional revenue next year in a potentially tougher congressional fight, according to Pedro Viveros, a Bogota-based political consultant.
维韦罗斯表示:“财政问题如此严重,国会很可能会支持政府的调整。然而,我怀疑议员们是否会支持加税。”德·拉·埃斯普列亚当选后,哥伦比亚资产上涨,因为投资者押注他将恢复财政纪律。但此后政府债券已回吐了大部分涨幅,这表明投资者越来越不愿凭信心接受这一调整。
“The fiscal problem is so serious that Congress is likely to support the government’s adjustment,” Viveros said. “However, I doubt that lawmakers will back higher taxes.”Colombian assets rallied after De la Espriella’s election as investors bet he would restore fiscal discipline. But government bonds have since surrendered a large part of their gains, in a sign that that investors are becoming less willing to take the adjustment on faith.