
萨拉·埃尔迪布,萨米·马格迪 贝鲁特——伊朗支持的民兵组织上月发动了一次精确打击,击中了沙特阿拉伯最重要输油管道的泵站。数日后,另一次袭击击中了一座沙特军事空军基地,损坏了机库内的一架意大利战斗机。
SARAH EL DEEB, SAMY MAGDY BEIRUT — Iranian-backed militias carried out a precision strike last month, hitting the pumping stations of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil pipeline . Days later, another attack hit a Saudi military air base, damaging an Italian fighter jet inside a hangar.
这些打击之所以成功,关键在于头顶天空中所发生的一切:在袭击发生前的数日里,一组俄罗斯间谍卫星在输油管道和空军基地上空聚集,以搜集情报。
Crucial to the strikes’ success was what was happening in the skies overhead: For days beforehand, a constellation of Russian spy satellites converged over the pipeline and the air base to gather intelligence.
一家私营地理空间情报公司表示,它研究了7月1日至10月19日期间,伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装和伊拉克民兵对沙特阿拉伯发动的40次导弹和无人机袭击。该公司发现,在每一起案例中,俄罗斯政府和军方卫星都在袭击前后数日于相关区域上空沿相同轨道运行。
A private geospatial intelligence firm said it examined 40 missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and militias in Iraq between July 1 and Oct. 19. In every case, the firm found the same pattern of Russian government and military satellites orbiting above the areas for days before and after.
“我们发现,卫星活动与袭击之间100%吻合,”总部位于日内瓦的AURORAH地理信号情报公司创始人纳瓦夫·奥贝德说。
“What we found is a 100% match” between the satellite activities and strikes, said Nawaf Obaid, founder of Geneva-based AURORAH Geosignal Intelligence.
这些发现表明,俄罗斯据信正在帮助伊朗及其地区盟友锁定沙特阿拉伯的石油和军事基础设施。这些袭击助推了全球能源价格上涨。
The findings illustrate how Russia is believed to be helping Iran and its allies in the region target Saudi Arabia’s oil and military infrastructure in attacks that have helped raise global energy prices .
三名官员——包括一名来自沙特阿拉伯的官员和一名胡塞武装高层人士——以及一名私营情报分析师告诉美联社,胡塞武装和其他伊朗盟友受益于俄罗斯的情报能力以及中国的能力。据美联社报道,驻当地的伊朗顾问分析了这些情报,并将其转交给盟友。
Three officials, including one from Saudi Arabia and another in the top ranks of the Houthis, as well as a private intelligence analyst, told The Associated Press that the Houthis and other Iranian allies have benefited from Russian intelligence, as well as Chinese capabilities. Iranian advisers in the field analyzed and transferred the intelligence to their allies, according to AP reporting.
沙特外交部负责公共外交的副大臣拉伊德·克里姆利上周告诉记者,伊朗和胡塞武装从“俄罗斯和中国的分子,有时甚至是商业分子”那里获取情报。“我们确实定期与中国和俄罗斯讨论这些事项,我们也将继续这样做,”他说。
The Saudi Foreign Ministry’s deputy minister for public diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, told reporters last week that Iran and the Houthis receive intelligence from “elements in Russia and China, even commercial elements sometimes.”“We do discuss these matters regularly with China and Russia, and we will continue to do so,” he said.
俄罗斯官员在被问及这些指控时没有立即置评,包括AURORAH的调查结果。
Russian officials had no immediate comment when asked about the allegations, including AURORAH’s findings.
俄罗斯与伊朗有着长期的军事合作关系,包括转让无人机技术。尽管俄罗斯并未直接参与该地区的战争,但美国和欧洲官员表示,俄罗斯与伊朗分享了情报。
Russia and Iran have a longstanding military cooperation arrangement, including transferring drone technology . While Russia has not been directly involved in the wars in the region, U.S. and European officials have said Russia has shared intelligence with Iran.
9月10日上午,来自伊拉克的多架无人机袭击了沙特阿拉伯东西输油管道沿线的三个关键泵站,立即中断了石油输送。这条横贯沙特、全长1200公里(746英里)的管道,在伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡航运之际,一直是沙特将原油运往市场的重要替代路线。
On the morning of Sept. 10, multiple drone strikes from Iraq hit three critical pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, immediately interrupting the flow of oil . The 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) pipeline across the kingdom has been a vital alternative route for getting its crude to market amid Iran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
奥贝德说,泵站对于石油在管道中的输送至关重要。这条管道从沙特东部出发,穿越内志高原,然后向下延伸至沙特西部的红海沿岸,海拔落差超过1100米(3608英尺)。奥贝德是伦敦国王学院战争研究系的研究员,曾在2004年至2016年间担任多名沙特官员的顾问。“这正是伊拉克境内的民兵决定袭击的地方,”他说。
The pumping stations are vital to moving oil through the pipeline, which rises more than 1,100 meters (3,608 feet) in altitude as it goes from eastern Saudi Arabia across the Najd Plateau then back down to the kingdom’s western coast on the Red Sea, said Obaid, a fellow at King’s College Department of War Studies who also served as an adviser to various Saudi officials from 2004 to 2016. “This is where the militias out of Iraq decided to strike,” he said.
从7月开始,他的公司观察到俄罗斯11颗“宇宙2600”系列卫星集中关注管道的这三个区段。他说,在袭击发生前的数周以及袭击前后的数小时内,卫星飞越次数增加,表明袭击前后都进行了侦察。
Beginning in July, his firm observed 11 of Russia’s Cosmos 2600 series satellites concentrating on those three sections of the pipeline. Flybys increased in the weeks leading up to the attacks and in the hours around the strikes, showing reconnaissance before and after, he said.
一周后,沙特阿拉伯塔伊夫的费萨尔国王空军基地遭到伊朗支持的胡塞武装发射的多枚弹药袭击。据意大利国防部称,除基地内的机库外,一架意大利空军的“台风”战斗机受损。多年来,意大利军方一直在沙特阿拉伯部署军事资产,作为美国领导的联军在伊拉克和叙利亚行动的一部分。
A week later, King Fahd Air Base in Taif, Saudi Arabia, was hit with multiple projectiles fired by the Iranian-backed Houthis. Along with hangars at the base, an Italian air force Eurofighter Typhoon jet was damaged, according to the Italian Defense Ministry. The Italian military has had assets deployed in Saudi Arabia for years as part of the U.S.-led coalition’s campaigns in Iraq and Syria.
在这两起事件中,奥贝德的公司监测到,在袭击前后72小时内,目标上空俄罗斯卫星的数量较7月增加了50%。
In both those cases, Obaid’s firm monitored a 50% increase in the number of Russian satellites orbiting above the targets during a 72-hour period before and after the strikes, compared with July.
奥贝德说,值得注意的是,塔伊夫袭击精确击中了意大利战机,而不是驻扎在同一基地的沙特战机,这表明“胡塞武装和伊朗人根本不具备这种高度专业化的情报支持”。胡塞武装已警告外国势力不要帮助沙特阿拉伯。
Notably, the Taif attack precisely hit the Italian warplane rather than Saudi ones stationed at the same base, suggesting “highly specialized intelligence support that the Houthis and Iranians simply don’t have,” Obaid said. The Houthis have warned foreign powers not to help Saudi Arabia.
奥贝德说,AURORAH利用开源信息以及其他情报来源,从环绕地球的11000多艘航天器中识别出72颗俄罗斯侦察卫星。随后,该公司追踪了这些卫星的轨迹和机动情况,并将其与地面军事活动进行比对。
AURORAH used open-source information as well as other intelligence sources to identify 72 Russian reconnaissance satellites out of more than 11,000 spacecraft orbiting the Earth, Obaid said. It then tracked their trajectories and maneuvers while comparing them to military activity on the ground.
奥贝德说,该公司并未截获向伊朗或其盟友传输情报的实际通信内容。但他表示,该公司已确定了一个明确的模式:在袭击发生前,俄罗斯卫星会围绕战略目标进行部署和侦察活动,这表明情报正在被收集并传递,用于胡塞武装和伊拉克民兵的目标定位。
The firm has not intercepted actual transmission of intelligence to Iran or its allies, Obaid said. Instead, the firm has established a definitive pattern of Russian satellite positions and reconnaissance activity around strategic targets ahead of strikes, indicating that intelligence is being collected and transferred for Houthi and Iraqi militia targeting, he said.
奥贝德说,在2月开始的美国-伊朗战争期间,伊朗袭击中东地区美军基地时,也出现了相同的卫星活动模式。
Obaid said the same satellite patterns also occurred in connection with Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East during the U.S.-Iran war that began in February.
他说:“这就是地区军事平衡的根本性转变:武器背后的情报系统正变得与武器本身同等重要。”
“That is the fundamental transformation in the regional military balance: The intelligence system behind the weapon is becoming as important as the weapon itself,” he said.
总部位于加利福尼亚州的轨道情报公司Leolabs的技术解决方案副总裁亚当·马什表示,卫星聚集正是人们预期中为收集情报会看到的情况。他说,俄罗斯人可以否认他们在这样做,但他指出,目前只有一般性政策,没有监管机构:“你怎么阻止任何人?”一位了解沙特阿拉伯对近期袭击调查情况的官员表示,情报显示俄罗斯卫星曾帮助胡塞武装和伊拉克民兵打击敏感目标,包括东西输油管道上的泵站。该官员要求匿名,因为他们未获授权对记者发言。
Adam Marsh, vice president of technological solutions at California-based Leolabs, an orbital intelligence firm, said the massing of satellites is what one would expect to see for purposes of collecting intelligence. The Russians can deny they are doing it, he said, but he noted there is only a general policy and no regulatory body: “How would you stop anybody?”An official briefed on investigations in Saudi Arabia into recent attacks said intelligence showed that Russian satellites had helped Houthis and Iraqi militias strike sensitive targets, including the pumping stations on the East-West Pipeline. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to journalists.
这位官员说,这些卫星还帮助了伊朗3月对沙特阿拉伯苏丹王子空军基地的袭击,该基地内一架美国侦察机严重受损;以及伊朗对美国驻利雅得大使馆大院内的中央情报局单位的袭击。
The satellites also helped strikes by Iran in March on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base, where a U.S. surveillance aircraft was severely damaged, and on a CIA unit inside the U.S. Embassy complex in Riyadh, the official said.
这位官员说,调查发现胡塞武装在袭击中使用的导弹和无人机含有俄罗斯和中国制造的部件。
The investigations found that missiles and drones used by the Houthis in their strikes had Russian- and Chinese-made components, the official said.
据奥贝德和一名胡塞领导人称,俄罗斯卫星情报还帮助胡塞武装在也门内战中对抗沙特支持的对手时取得了重大进展。
Russian satellite intelligence has also helped the Houthis in the dramatic advances they made against Saudi-backed opponents in Yemen’s civil war, according to Obaid and a Houthi leader.
奥贝德说,AURORAH识别出了与10月15日胡塞武装袭击也门南部港口城市亚丁总统府以及沙特领导的联军使用的一个附近指挥中心相关的目标上空卫星配置,还识别出了对舍卜瓦省一个政府招募中心的袭击相关的卫星配置,那次袭击造成75名新兵死亡。
AURORAH identified satellite configurations over targets in connection to an Oct. 15 Houthi strike on the presidential palace in Yemen’s southern port city of Aden and a nearby command center used by the Saudi-led coalition, as well as a strike on a government recruitment center in the province of Shabwa that killed 75 new recruits, Obaid said.
一名胡塞高级领导人告诉美联社,在也门当地的伊朗顾问一直在向叛军提供基于俄罗斯卫星情报的数据,以帮助其瞄准目标。该领导人要求匿名,以讨论这些顾问的机密角色。
Iranian advisers on the ground in Yemen have been providing the rebels with data based on Russian satellite intelligence to help in targeting, a senior Houthi leader told the AP. The leader spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the confidential role of the advisers.
穆萨姆·阿尔萨卢姆是一名安全分析师,跟踪伊朗支持的组织近十年,如今经营一家私营情报公司。他说,顾问们利用俄罗斯间谍卫星信息,向伊朗人提供目标清单和作战情报。
Mzahem Alsaloum, a security analyst who has followed Iranian-backed groups for nearly a decade and now runs a private intelligence firm, said the advisers use Russian spy satellite information to provide Iranians with target lists and operational information.
也门胡塞武装领导人还说,伊朗人向叛乱分子提供了更先进的装备,包括无人机驾驶系统和帮助导弹规避防空系统的设备。
The Houthi leader also said the Iranians provided the rebels with more advanced equipment, including systems for piloting drones and for helping missiles evade air defenses.
他说,这些装备由伊朗人开发,或通过商业渠道购买,或由俄罗斯和中国提供,但他不知道这些国家是否知道该装备正在也门战争中使用。马格迪从开罗报道。
The equipment was developed by the Iranians, bought commercially or provided by Russia and China, he said, though he did not know whether those countries were aware the equipment was being used in the Yemen war. Magdy reported from Cairo.