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安巴尼的Jio向马斯克展示如何在莫迪治下的印度取胜Ambani’s Jio Shows Musk How to Win in Modi’s India

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向Jio学习。Learning from Jio.

当Jio Platforms Ltd.周三开始交易时,其1070亿美元的估值将同时为几项押注定价:穆克什·安巴尼(Mukesh Ambani)押注廉价数据能支撑15亿人的数字经济;谷歌和Meta Platforms Inc.决定支持他;以及印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)的数字化推进。

When Jio Platforms Ltd. begins trading on Wednesday, its $107 billion valuation will put a price on several bets at once: Mukesh Ambani’s wager that cheap data could underpin the digital economy of 1.5 billion people; Google and Meta Platforms Inc.’s decision to back him; and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s digital push.

埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)应密切关注。Jio在卫星宽带领域的潜在竞争对手曾暗示,安巴尼的崛起与裙带资本主义有关。这种解释忽略了一个对任何试图攻克一个长期以来难以看透、更难获利的市场的全球公司更有用的教训:在莫迪治下的印度,通往商业成功最可靠的路径,越来越多地通向政府的战略优先事项。

Elon Musk should watch closely. The potential rival to Jio in satellite broadband has suggested that Ambani’s rise owes something to crony capitalism. That explanation misses the more useful lesson for any global company trying to crack a market that has long been hard to read and tougher to profit from: In Modi’s India, the surest route to commercial success increasingly runs through the government’s strategic priorities.

Jio早早就明白了这一点。让连接变得廉价且无处不在,不仅仅是一个商业主张;它服务于新德里的核心发展目标之一。信实工业投入了数十亿美元资本,将数据价格压低至全球最低水平之一,并在此过程中积累了超过5亿用户。政府获得了靠自己永远无法如此快速融资建设的基础设施。安巴尼获得了一个规模非凡的市场。这种共生关系向世界展示了印度资本主义如何运作。

Jio understood that early. Making connectivity cheap and ubiquitous wasn’t merely a commercial proposition; it served one of New Delhi’s central development goals. Reliance deployed billions of dollars of capital, drove data prices to among the world’s lowest and in the process amassed more than 500 million customers. The government got infrastructure it could never have financed as quickly on its own. Ambani got a market of extraordinary scale. That symbiosis shows the world how Indian capitalism works.

在莫迪执政的12年里,政府不干预商业的旧观念已让位于国家与私人资本之间更强有力的伙伴关系。产业政策已从保护中小企业转向培育足以进行巨额押注的大型公司。其逻辑是:国家无法独自为印度的转型融资,因此它利用激励、采购、战略投资、监管甚至强制手段,引导私人资本服务于其目标。

During Modi’s 12 years in office, the old idea that government has no business in business has given way to a much more muscular partnership between the state and private capital. Industrial policy has shifted from protecting small firms toward cultivating companies big enough to make enormous bets. The logic is that the state can’t finance India’s transformation alone, so it uses incentives, procurement, strategic investment, regulation and even coercion to draw private capital behind its goals.

这笔交易并非没有风险。当商业成功高度依赖于与政府优先事项保持一致时,产业政策与偏袒之间的界限就更难界定。拥有资金、政治渠道和耐心、能够帮助新德里实现目标的公司,可以获得竞争对手难以匹敌的优势。这就是马斯克抱怨引起共鸣的原因。但光抱怨制度并不是一种策略。

The deal isn’t without risks. When commercial success depends heavily on alignment with government priorities, the line between industrial policy and favoritism becomes harder to ascertain. Companies with the capital, political access and patience to help New Delhi achieve its goals can acquire advantages that rivals struggle to match. That’s why Musk’s complaint resonates. But moaning about the system isn’t a strategy.

外国公司并未被拒之门外。它们只需搞清楚世界上人口最多的国家的人们想从它们这里得到什么。

Foreign companies aren’t shut out. They simply have to understand what people of the world’s most populous nation want from them.

一条路径是支持一家已处于国家优先事项核心位置的公司。2020年,在新冠疫情造成巨大经济损失、Jio廉价数据模式仍在接受考验之际,Meta、Alphabet旗下的Google及其他投资者向Jio投入了约200亿美元。他们押注的是印度的数字化转型。周三给了他们首次兑现回报的机会。

One route is to back a company already positioned at the center of a national priority. Meta, Alphabet Inc.’s Google and other investors put about $20 billion into Jio in 2020, while Covid was inflicting a massive economic cost and its cheap-data model was still being tested. They were betting on India’s digital transformation. Wednesday gives them their first opportunity to cash in.

另一条路径更难:表现得像一家国家冠军企业。这并不意味着要变成印度企业或培养政治关系。而是要投入足够的资本、技术和持久力,去解决政府认为重要的问题。并且要以一个行得通的价格去做。

The other route is harder: Behave like a national champion yourself. That doesn’t mean becoming Indian or cultivating political connections. It means bringing enough capital, technology and staying power to solve a problem the government considers important. And doing it at a price that works.

外国公司早已理解等式中的一部分。麦当劳拥抱素食者,推出了麦乐鸡汉堡(McAloo Tikki Burger,注:原文为McAloo Tikki Burger,此处按常见译名翻译)。现代汽车专门为印度消费者设计汽车。三星电子调整家电以适应当地习惯。相比之下,雪佛兰、达特桑和家乐福则提醒人们,全球规模和知名品牌并不保证成功。如果一种产品在别处拥有狂热追随者,却无法以本地价格解决印度的问题,那就毫无价值。

Foreign companies have long understood one part of that equation. McDonald’s Corp. embraced vegetarians and created the McAloo Tikki Burger. Hyundai Motor Co. designed cars with Indian consumers in mind. Samsung Electronics Co. adapted appliances to local habits. Chevrolet, Datsun and Carrefour SA, by contrast, are reminders that global scale and a famous brand don’t guarantee success. A product with cult status elsewhere doesn’t amount to a hill of beans if it doesn’t solve an Indian problem at a local price.

然而,在莫迪领导下,仅靠本地化已不够。更关键的问题是:你的投资服务于哪项国家优先事项。

Under Modi, however, localization isn’t enough. The more consequential question is which national priority your investment serves.

对于 Jio,答案是数字连接。对其他公司来说,可能是电子产品制造、半导体、人工智能、可再生能源或国防。新德里越来越清楚希望资本和技术在哪里部署。能够将自己的商业抱负与这些目标对齐的公司,将拥有先发优势。

For Jio, the answer was digital connectivity. For other companies it might be electronics manufacturing, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, renewable energy or defense. New Delhi has made increasingly clear where it wants capital and technology deployed. Companies that can align their commercial ambitions with those goals start with an advantage.

然而,仅仅对齐是不够的。Jio 的下一阶段——推出其数字产品并发射 1,600 颗卫星——将使它面临任何“国家冠军”地位都无法保护它的市场现实:技术颠覆、消费者行为变化以及监管挫折。它必须在不放弃其帝国赖以建立的廉价数据价格的前提下,提供满足股东回报的利润率。公开上市只会加大这种压力。这又回到了马斯克身上。

Alignment only gets you started, though. Jio’s next phase — rolling out its digital offering and launching 1,600 satellites — will expose it to market realities that no national-champion status can shield it from: technological disruption, changing consumer behavior and regulatory setbacks. It must deliver margins that satisfy shareholders without abandoning the cheap data prices on which its empire was built. A public listing will only increase that pressure. Which brings us back to Musk.

Starlink 能在印度成功,甚至击败 Jio?当然可能。但仅凭允许销售卫星宽带许可证是不够的。Starlink 需要同时说服新德里和印度客户,表明其对印度的承诺是持久的而非交易性的。它需要一个即使美国政策发生转变也能运作的印度运营能力——正如我的同事 David Fickling 所写。而且它必须将高质量服务与印度价格水平相匹配,并持续多年,也许是在几乎不盈利的情况下维持这种承诺。

Could Starlink succeed in India, even against Jio? Certainly. But permission to sell satellite broadband won’t be enough. Starlink would need to convince both New Delhi and Indian customers that its commitment is durable rather than transactional. It would need an Indian operation capable of delivering even if US policy shifts, as my colleague David Fickling has written. And it would have to pair high-quality service with Indian-level prices and sustain that commitment for years, perhaps on negligible profits.

如果马斯克能做到这一切,Starlink 就能与 Jio 竞争。但这将需要比赢得许可证或证明其技术更困难的事情。他必须停止把印度仅仅当作一个进入的市场,转而将其视为一项国家工程。

If Musk can do all that, Starlink can compete with Jio. But that would require something harder than winning a license or proving that his technology is superior. He would have to stop treating India simply as a market to enter and start treating it as a national project.

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