
迪拜——据知情人士透露,美国已通过外交和军事渠道告知多个海湾阿拉伯国家,在美中期选举后做好准备,应对一场短暂而激烈的军事行动。
DUBAI—The U.S. has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the U.S. midterm elections, people briefed on the conversations said.
这些沟通是越来越多迹象之一,表明美国和以色列正准备发起新一轮针对伊朗的大规模战斗行动,冒着局势大幅升级的风险,旨在削弱德黑兰的实力并迫其走向谈判桌。
The communications through diplomatic and military channels are among a growing number of indications that the U.S. and Israel are readying to launch a new round of heavy combat operations against Iran, risking a major escalation in hopes of degrading Tehran’s strength and pushing it toward negotiations.
熟悉相关部署的官员称,美军正从得克萨斯州调入一套“爱国者”系统以加强导弹防御,并已将部队从易受攻击的基地转移,为可能的升级做准备。
The U.S. military is bringing in a Patriot system from Texas to beef up its missile defenses and has moved troops off bases where they were vulnerable in preparation for an escalation, officials familiar with those moves said.
部分官员表示,驻该地区美军一直在补充弹药,轰炸机和战斗机正准备实施打击。一艘额外的航母打击群和一个海军陆战队远征部队也随时准备于下月加入在中东活动的约20艘其他军舰组成的舰队,尽管部分舰艇可能会轮换离开。
U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes, some of the officials said. An additional aircraft carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are also poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East next month, although some ships could rotate out.
知情人士称,特朗普总统尚未决定是否付诸行动,但倾向于在选后发动大规模袭击,目标可能包括伊朗基础设施和核设施。
President Trump hasn’t decided to go ahead but is leaning toward a large postelection attack that could target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites, people familiar with his thinking said.
另一种选择是尝试达成协议。地区调解人的外交努力仍在继续,但迄今未见成果。
The alternative would be to try to cut a deal. Diplomatic efforts by regional mediators continued but had yet to bear fruit.
“我们可能会再搞一次小型的‘史诗之怒’行动,”特朗普上周在一次集会上表示,指的是今春美以发动的大规模轰炸行动。“要么那样,要么他们同意(谈判)。”
“We may do another little Epic Fury,” Trump said at a rally last week, referring to the heavy U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign in the spring. “Or they’ll agree.”
白宫表示,不会就“可能存在也可能不存在的敏感军事计划”置评。“特朗普总统将所有选项摆在桌面上,以确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器,”白宫称。总统已表示,不会在中期选举前袭击伊朗。
The White House said it wouldn’t comment on “sensitive military plans that may or may not exist.”“President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” the White House said.
这些行动及相关计划旨在为特朗普提供选项,以防他决定发动打击,熟悉计划的人士说。国防部表示,其职责是提供此类选项。
The president has said he won’t attack Iran before the midterms.
《华尔街日报》报道,以色列也已准备好新一轮攻击的计划和目标。总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡继续推动恢复打击,希冀削弱伊朗实力并最终推翻该政权。
The moves and related planning are meant to give Trump options should he decide to carry out a strike, people familiar with the planning said. The Defense Department said its job is to deliver such options.
恢复空袭将意味着从特朗普政府的经济压力行动转向。更严厉的制裁加上海上封锁已使伊朗的石油销售中断数月,关闭了大部分航空线路,并削减了陆路贸易,进一步压缩了该国本已螺旋式恶化的经济。
Israel also has prepared plans and targets for a new attack, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to push for a resumption of strikes in hopes of degrading Iran’s strength and ultimately toppling the regime.
“如果需要针对导弹重建等日益增长的威胁,特朗普总统应公开说明,并尽可能提供详细信息,”美国智库“捍卫民主基金会”伊朗项目高级主任贝纳姆·本·塔勒布鲁说。“否则,目前美国通过维持制裁和封锁已经占据优势,应当坚持这一路线。”
A return to airstrikes would mean a pivot from the Trump administration’s economic pressure campaign. Tighter sanctions coupled with a naval blockade have cut off Iran’s oil sales for months, shut down much of its air links and cut into overland trade, tightening the squeeze on the country’s already spiraling economy.

许多分析人士认为,伊朗不太可能在进一步攻击下屈服。伊朗在战争最活跃阶段经受了美以超过2万次的打击,仍然继续攻击波斯湾的船只、针对美军部队和军舰,并在谈判桌上提出强硬要求。
“If there is a need to target a growing threat like missile reconstitution, President Trump should make that case publicly and with as much detail as possible,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a U.S. think tank. “Otherwise, at the moment, the U.S. has a winning hand through maintaining sanctions and the blockade. It should stay the course.”Many analysts believe Iran isn’t likely to capitulate under further attacks. Iran weathered more than 20,000 strikes by the U.S. and Israel during the most active phase of the war. It nevertheless has continued to attack ships in the Persian Gulf, target U.S. troops and warships, and bring tough demands to the negotiating table.
前以色列军情官员丹尼·西特里诺维奇说:“我认为以色列和美国持续犯的最大错误之一是认为对伊朗再进行一轮打击,包括攻击关键基础设施或消灭高级官员,能够以某种方式推翻该政权。”
“I believe one of the biggest mistakes Israel and the United States continue to make is assuming that another round of strikes against Iran, including attacks on critical infrastructure or the elimination of senior officials, could somehow bring down the regime,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official.
他说,进一步轰炸可能反而会让该政权更加顽固,更加致力于其导弹和核计划。
Further bombing could cause the regime to further dig in and become more committed to its missile and nuclear programs, he said.
[视频] 在“乔治·华盛顿”号航空母舰上,看它如何为可能对伊朗发动的打击重新装填弹药。在2025年6月那场较短的冲突中,美国和以色列摧毁了伊朗核计划的大部分。
[video] Aboard USS George Washington as it Rearms For Possible Iran Strikes The U.S. and Israel destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear program in the shorter conflict of June 2025.
国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·格罗西周二对联合国安理会表示,该机构尚未发现任何修复或重建这两场战争中受损设施的活动。
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday that his agency hasn’t identified any activity to repair or reconstruct any of the facilities damaged by attacks in either of the two wars.
但他表示,其核查人员未能进入这些设施进行检查,并称国际原子能机构一直无法核实伊朗没有转移核材料。美国已施压伊朗允许核查人员返回,但伊朗一直拒绝。
But he said his inspectors haven’t had access to the facilities to check and said the IAEA hasn’t been able to verify that Iran hasn’t diverted nuclear material. The U.S. has pushed Iran to allow inspectors to return, but it has resisted.
仍引发担忧的剩余地点之一是“镐山”,它位于数百英尺厚的岩石之下。
One of the remaining sites that has raised concern—Pickaxe Mountain—sits under hundreds of feet of rock.
战略与国际研究中心的防务与安全分析师塞思·琼斯表示,特朗普可以利用新一轮打击来宣布胜利,然后减少美国在战争中的参与,即使这些打击并未带来决定性打击。
Trump could use a fresh round of strikes to declare victory and then reduce America’s involvement in the war, even if those strikes don’t deliver a decisive blow, said Seth Jones, a defense and security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
琼斯谈到伊朗的核工作时说:“我不认为有什么能永久阻碍他们的计划”,但打击将让特朗普能够“开始抽身,并说这次你又再次延缓了伊朗的核计划。”伊朗已通过公开和私下渠道警告称,它将对任何攻击作出回应,对该地区的经济和民用目标发动猛烈打击。它在战前也发出过类似威胁,随后袭击了美国基地和外交设施,以及海湾各地的能源设施和机场。
“I don’t think anything is going to permanently set back their program,” Jones said of Iran’s nuclear work, but strikes would allow Trump to “start to walk away and say that you had again set back Iran’s nuclear program this time.”Iran has warned through public and private channels that it would respond to any attack with harsh strikes on economic and civilian targets across the region. It made similar threats ahead of the war, then hit U.S. bases and diplomatic facilities as well as energy facilities and airports across the Gulf.
伊朗此次的任何报复都将发生之际,美国和其海湾盟友正急于补充导弹防御库存,这些库存已因战争迄今伊朗的一波波袭击而紧张。
Any Iranian retaliation this time would come as the U.S. and its Gulf allies are scrambling to restock supplies of missile defenses strained by waves of Iranian attacks so far in the war.
尽管美国和以色列造成了破坏,伊朗仍保留着数百至数千枚导弹的储备,并利用战事间歇期加强防御、制定新的报复计划。
Despite the damage done by the U.S. and Israel, Iran retains a stockpile of hundreds to thousands of missiles and has used the lull in fighting to shore up its defenses and prepare new plans for retaliation.
该国正利用储备零部件组装新型弹道导弹。以色列官员对伊朗重建的速度感到担忧。
The country is assembling new ballistic missiles from stockpiled parts. Israeli officials are concerned by the speed with which Iran has been rebuilding.
中东调解人正争分夺秒地恢复与伊朗的谈判,以避免新一轮战斗爆发。迄今进展甚微,美国坚持讨论伊朗核计划,而德黑兰则为恢复谈判提出了苛刻条件。
Middle East mediators are scrambling to revive talks with Iran to head off a new wave of combat. So far they have had little luck, with the U.S. insisting on discussing Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran laying out tough demands for resuming talks.