
我会将这份预算案描述为一支“小措施舰队”。威斯敏斯特正在仔细研读这份印有预算案的150页《红皮书》,以及由监督机构和预测机构——预算责任办公室(OBR)发布的、正式称为《经济与财政展望》的文件。
This was a Budget I would describe as a flotilla of small measures. Westminster is poring over the 150 page Red Book in which the Budget is printed and also what is formally called the Economic and Fiscal Outlook published by the watchdog and forecaster the Office for Budget Responsibility, the OBR.
《红皮书》列出了财政大臣将实施的措施及其成本。共有98项措施,远多于常态,也多于雷切尔·里夫斯的两份预算案中的任一份。但从对财政部电子表格的影响来看,几乎所有措施都相当微小。
The Red Book sets out the measures the chancellor will implement and how much they will cost. There are 98 of them, considerably more than normal and more than in either of Rachel Reeves' budgets. But nearly all of them are pretty small in terms of their impact on the Treasury's spreadsheets.
这触及了为何参与编制这份预算案的人士,对预算案发布前有关约翰·希利讲话将“无事可看”的评论感到恼火——但也说明提出这种看法的人可以说抓住了某种实质。
This gets to the heart of why those involved in compiling this Budget have been irritated by commentary in the build up to it suggesting there would be nothing to see in John Healey's address – but also why those suggesting that were arguably onto something as well.
首先,正如预期的那样,在总体税收和支出方面,这份预算案比许多近期的预算案都要小得多。但其中有大量的零星措施,财政大臣希望足够多的人能注意到并认可——也有一些措施某些人很可能会咒骂。例如,针对储蓄者、房东以及银行的税收增加了。
Firstly, as expected, it was a much smaller Budget in overall tax and spending terms than plenty of recent ones have been. But there were plenty of measures here and there which the chancellor will hope enough people notice and value – and others that some will likely curse. There are more taxes for savers and landlords, for instance, and too for banks.
当一个政府像工党那样承诺不提高所得税、国民保险金或增值税——这些主要的收入来源——如果他们得出必须增税的结论,最终就会把目光投向别处。
When a government has promised, as Labour have, to not put up income tax, national insurance or VAT – the big revenue generators – they end up looking elsewhere if they conclude putting up tax is necessary.
这带来了政治风险,即挑选特定行业,而这些行业可能会做出相当大的反应。想想那些因雷切尔·里夫斯热衷的遗产税变动而愤怒的大量农民。
That runs the political risk of choosing particular sectors who might respond rather noisily. Think of the plenty of farmers who were incensed by the changes to inheritance tax Rachel Reeves was keen on.
希利面临的核心挑战,与他最近的前任们一样,在于公共财政一团糟,而无数家庭的个人财政状况也一团糟。
The central challenge for Healey, which he shares with his recent predecessors, is the public finances are in a mess and so are the personal finances of so, so many households.
英国财政责任办公室(OBR)的措辞中再次出现了一种似曾相识的感觉。它以一种轻描淡写的口吻表示:“英国的经济和财政状况依然非常严峻”,并补充说,随着中东冲突的爆发,今年出现了“进一步的不利事态发展”。
And there is a recurring sense of déjà vu in the language of the OBR. "The UK's economic and fiscal position remains very challenging," it says, with a splash of understatement, adding that "there have been further adverse developments" this year with in the conflict in the Middle East.
至于接下来会发生什么,坦白说,谁也不知道。或者用OBR的话说:“经济和公共财政前景充满不确定性,出现显著好转或恶化的可能性大体相当。”预算文件辩称“英国经济显示出韧性的迹象”,但同样真实的是,国债、税负、通胀和利率都处于高位、正在上升,或两者兼有——而且未来可能还会出现进一步的经济冲击,使情况恶化。
As for what happens, next, well, frankly, who on earth knows. Or, as the OBR puts it: "The outlook for the economy and the public finances is uncertain, with significantly better or worse outcomes of broadly equal probability." The Budget book argues that "the UK economy is showing signs of resilience" but it is also true that the national debt, tax burden, inflation and interest rates are high, going up or both – and there could yet be further economic shocks that make things worse.
例如,在美国中期选举结束、以色列大选结果明朗后,中东局势将如何发展?
What happens, for instance, in the Middle East, one the mid term elections are done in America and the result of the Israeli general election is clear?
简而言之,财政大臣感到自己的行动能力受到制约,而他做出明显积极改变的能力或许受到的制约更大——因为任何干预,即便是代价高昂的干预,可能仅仅是让严峻的局势稍微不那么糟糕,而不是让情况真正好转。
In short, the Chancellor felt constrained in his capacity to act and his capacity to make a noticeable positive difference is perhaps constrained even more so – because any intervention, even expensive ones, may merely make a grim situation a bit less bad, rather than things actually feeling better.
缓解恶果可以说是一个崇高的政治目标,但这需要花钱,且可能带来很少的政治收益。
Mitigating the bad is arguably a noble political aim, but it costs money and potentially comes with little political upside.
取而代之的是一系列较小规模的措施,政府希望这些措施能给自家议员提供一些可供推销的东西——同时也承认这些措施不会改变世界格局。
Instead there is this fleet of smaller measures that the government will hope gives their MPs something to try to sell – while acknowledging that they are not world changing.
智库“更多共同点”英国总监卢克·特里尔表示:“这份预算案中温和的民粹主义基调很可能在公众中收获良好反响。财政大臣瞄准了公众几乎不同情的群体——银行、房东、博彩公司和电子烟商店——并将由此获得的收入转化为生活成本支持、小企业税率减免,以及确保国家养老金不被征税。”他补充说:“至关重要的是,财政大臣或许避开了这份预算案最大的潜在陷阱——被公众视为向领取福利者提供能源补贴,从而激怒那些压力沉重的中产阶层,他们认为自己辛勤工作,却只能自生自灭。
Luke Tryl, the UK Director of the More in Common think tank, says: "The softly populist tone of this budget is likely to land well with the public. The Chancellor targeted groups the public have little sympathy with - banks, landlords, gambling companies and vape shops - and turned it into cost-of-living support, rate relief for small businesses and ensuring the state pension isn't taxed." He adds: "Crucially, the chancellor may have avoided the biggest potential trap of the Budget - being seen to offer energy support for those on benefits and incurring the ire of the squeezed middle, who think they work hard but are left to fend for themselves.
“相反,通过向所有市政税A至D档的居民提供支持,他得以向他们保证,政府也会支持他们。”反对党从不同政治立场出发的反应,实质上构成了一种批评,即这份预算案内容单薄。
"Instead, by offering support to all of those on Council Tax bands A to D, he is able to reassure them that the government will support them too." The reaction of the opposition parties, from a range of different political perspectives, amounts to a critique that this Budget was thin.
政府则反驳说,这只是新任不久的首相及其财政大臣逐步拼出的细节拼图中的一块——其中包括在圣诞节前帮助年轻人就业并削减福利的计划,以及对英国与欧盟长期关系可能形态的宏观构想,还有安迪·伯纳姆提出的十年愿景。
The government counters that it is one piece in the emerging jigsaw of detail from the new-ish prime minister and his chancellor – with a plan help young people into work and cut benefits before Christmas, alongside a big picture sense of what the UK's long term relationship with the European Union could look like and a 10 year vision from Andy Burnham.
总而言之,这感觉是一份谨慎的预算案。一位对政府持批评态度的友人向我表示,这将是“一份稳妥先生式的预算案”——他们希望并期待它或许没有花哨的点缀,但也没有定时炸弹。让我们拭目以待。
In summary, this felt like a cautious Budget. One critical friend of the government suggested to me this would be a "Mr Sensible Budget" – their hope and expectation that it might be shorn of bells and whistles, but shorn of timebombs too. Let's see.
