财政大臣谈到要为英国开辟一条新道路，但伊朗战争的影响限制了他的选择。
The chancellor talked of charting a new course for Britain, but the impact of Iran war has limited his options.
作者：达尔希尼·戴维 约翰·希利谈到要为英国开辟一条新道路，但这份预算案更多是在纠正方向，而非踏上一条新路。
By Dharshini David John Healey talked of charting a new course for Britain, but this Budget was more about course-correcting than charging down a new path.
显而易见，那场中东冲突带来的财务冲击已经拖累了家庭和企业的财务状况，也削弱了政府提供帮助的能力。
It was abundantly clear that the financial fallout from that conflict in the Middle East has hampered the finances of households and businesses – and the government's ability to help.
尽管政府将援助目标对准了受能源和燃料账单上涨影响的人群，但其旨在提供的“喘息空间”是有限的；这只是一剂无法完全缓解痛苦的药。
While the government targeted those impacted by higher energy and fuel bills, the "breathing space" it aimed to provide was limited; it is a pill that doesn't fully alleviate the pain.
最能说明问题的证据是，官方预测机构预计，尽管收入将会增长，但这并不能抵消物价和税收上涨的影响。即便把额外援助计算在内，经通胀和税收调整后的家庭收入在未来两年内预计仍将普遍低于本届议会任期之初的水平，这表明战争已在多大程度上使繁荣偏离了轨道。
The most telling evidence was that official forecasters predict that while earnings will rise, that is not compensating for higher prices and taxes. Even after the extra help is taken into account, households' incomes after inflation and tax are set to be typically lower across the next two years than the start of the parliament, a sign of how much the war has blown prosperity off course.
但不能把一切都归咎于战争。税收也难辞其咎。尽管针对家庭的重大措施寥寥无几，但历任财政大臣冻结不同所得税税率起征点的政策——即财政拖累——一直在暗中维持，从人们的工资中攫取了更多钱。
But it can't be all be blamed on the war. Taxes haven't helped. Although there were few major measures aimed at households, the policy of previous chancellors of freezing the thresholds at which different rates of tax on income apply - fiscal drag - has been maintained in the background, scooping more money out of pay packets.
总体而言，这份预算案使税收负担——即国民收入中上缴税务部门的比例——升至38.6%的历史新高。然而，一套更为慷慨的援助方案本难以实现。仅在过去一年里，通胀上升和债务的影响就使借贷成本增加了140亿英镑。
Overall, this Budget has the tax burden - the proportion of the nation's income going to the tax office - rising to a new historic high of 38.6% However, a more generous package of help would have been hard to pull off. The impact of higher inflation and debt have increased borrowing costs by £14bn in the past year alone.
财政大臣必须向借钱给政府的市场证明，他有计划降低未来债务，以避免这些成本进一步攀升。就目前而言，到2032年，债务利息偿付额预计将达到1600亿英镑，是英格兰学校支出的两倍多。
The Chancellor had to prove to the markets which lend the government money that he has a plan to bring down future debt to avoid those costs climbing further. As it stands, debt interest repayments are due to be £160bn in 2032, more than double the amount spent on schools in England.
希利已经公布的计划已经侵蚀了他在公共财政中的回旋余地。他表示这样做是正确的——这正是安全边际在动荡时期存在的意义。但依然存在的巨大不确定性使得进一步行动风险极大。例如，能源价格居高不下很容易吞噬所有的闲置资金。
And the plans Healey has unveiled already eat into wiggle room he has within the public finances. He says he was right to do so - that's what such safety margins are there for - in times of strife. But the great uncertainty that remains made going further very risky. Energy prices remaining high, for example, could easily chew up all the spare cash.
因此，结果正如一些人所称，这是一个“平淡、稳妥的预算案”。希利力求证明其财政稳健的资质，甚至没有惯例中的“从帽子里变兔子”、演讲末尾的“甜头”。
So the result was what some have termed a beige, safe Budget. As Healey strove to prove his fiscally sound credentials, there wasn't even the customary rabbit pulled out of the hat, the end-of-speech sweetener.
市场似乎感到宽慰——尽管他的一些增税计划涉及堵塞漏洞和打击偷漏税，这始终充满高度不确定性。
The markets seem reassured – even if some of his tax raising plans involve clamping down on loopholes and those not paying the right tax, which is always highly uncertain.
因此，财政大臣似乎为自己争取到了一些喘息空间。但这意味着一些重大问题被推迟到了另一天，其中最引人注目的便是公共服务。
So the chancellor appears to have bought himself some breathing space. But that means some big questions have been postponed until another day, not least on public services.
高于预期的通胀可能意味着，如果医疗和国防等领域被优先考虑，一些其他“未受保护”领域的预算——例如司法和高等教育——在2028年后将落后于通胀。
Higher-than-expected inflation may mean that if areas such as health and defence are prioritised, budgets for some other "unprotected" areas – justice and higher education for example – are set to lag behind inflation after 2028.
约翰·希利也暗示，他将动用部分这些预算来支持国防开支。要在2030年维持这些预算，意味着需要寻找数百亿英镑的资金。
There was a hint too from John Healey that he'd tap into some of those budgets to help out defence spending. To maintain those budgets in 2030 would means finding tens of billions of pounds.
而在另一大支出领域——福利——相关问题依然悬而未决。在2025年至2032年间，该领域支出预计将增加1000亿英镑。
And issues around the other big area of spending – welfare – remain unresolved. Between 2025 and 2032, spending there is set to increase by £100bn.
官方预测机构还指出，自疫情开始以来，疾病和残疾受益人数迅速上升。他们警告称，如果这一趋势持续，此类福利支出将再增加130亿英镑。
The official forecasters also noted the rapid rise in sickness and disability caseloads since the start of the pandemic. They warn if that trend continued, spending on such benefits would rise by a further £13bn.
任何关于福利改革的建议都被推迟到了即将出台的关于无业青年困境的审查中。
Any suggestion of welfare reform has been postponed until the forthcoming review into the plight of workless young people.
然后是促进增长的问题。关于分权下放的计划有了更多细节——但仍有大量内容有待充实。
Then there's the issue of boosting growth. There was a bit more detail on the plans for devolution – but there is much to be fleshed out.
而在增长战略的另一个关键部分——住房建设方面，传来了令人失望的消息。尽管首次购房者将获得更多帮助，但他们的第一套住房可能更加遥不可及。
And on another key part of the growth strategy, housebuilding, there was disappointing news. Even though first-time buyers are set to get more help, their first home may be more elusive.
预算责任办公室估计，受监管和成本上升（部分与战争有关）的影响，到2032年，新建住房数量将比其3月份预测的少19万套，这是一个重大挫折。
Between regulation and higher costs – in part, related to the war - the OBR estimates that 190,000 fewer homes will be built by 2032 compared to what it thought in March, a significant setback.
因此，财政大臣或许公布了98项（相对较小的）措施，但待办事项清单却越来越长。
So the chancellor may have unveiled 98 (relatively small) measures but the to-do list gets longer.
官方预测机构警告称，在一个高度不确定的世界里，他的财政面临异常风险，因此采取观望态度似乎是审慎之举。
With his official forecasters warning that, in a very uncertain world, his finances face exceptional risks, playing a wait-and-see game feels like a prudent move.
风险是双向的：预算责任办公室指出，战争迅速结束和经济改善可能意味着公共财政将获得显著提振。因此，财政大臣比大多数人有更多理由祈盼这一切迅速发生。
The risks go both ways: the OBR points out that a swift resolution to the war and an improvement in the economy could spell a significant boost to the public finances. So the chancellor has more reason than most to keep his fingers crossed that happens rapidly.
因为就目前而言，官方预测机构表示，到本十年末，扣除通胀后的收入——即生活水平——预计仅比本十年初高出1%。
For as it stands, the official forecasters say incomes after inflation, living standards, are set to be only 1% higher at the end of the decade than at the start.
一系列超出我们控制的经济冲击可能阻碍大幅提升繁荣的计划。而正如今天所显示的那样，喘息空间终究有限。
A series of economic shocks outside out control could thwart plans to turbo-boost prosperity . And as today shows, breathing space only extends so far.