
Anadolu via Getty Images and AFP via Getty Images 13分钟前 “民主是最糟糕的政府形式,除非是对那些已经尝试过的其他形式而言。”温斯顿·丘吉尔1947年在下议院如此说道。
Anadolu via Getty Images and AFP via Getty Images 13 minutes ago "Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried." So said Winston Churchill in the House of Commons in 1947.
当以色列大选结果在周二晚间陆续传出之际——出口民调与选票交织,让人们的希望与恐惧或落空或成真——这句格言浮现在脑海。
His aphorism came to mind as Israel's election results filtered through on Tuesday night - exit polls blending with ballots that were cast to dash or fulfil people's hopes and fears.
从某些角度看,这次选举是对民主的礼赞。选民以创纪录的数量踊跃投票,犹太人和阿拉伯人皆是如此。许多人花费数千美元从国外飞回只为投下一票。
This election has, in some ways, been a celebration of democracy. Voters turning out in record numbers, Jews and Arabs alike. Many spent thousands to fly in from abroad to cast their ballot.
在全国各地的投票站,我们看到了竞选者的热情,他们利用每一分钟试图改变最后一个选民的想法、赢得最后一张选票。
At polling stations across the country, we saw the passion of campaigners, as they used every minute to try to change that last mind and win that last vote.
总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格称这次选举是以色列社会的“荣誉勋章”。“令人惊叹地看到,以色列对民主的渴望有多么深沉,”他感叹道。
President Isaac Herzog said the election was a "badge of honour" for Israeli society. "It is remarkable to see how deep the desire for democracy is in Israel," he exclaimed.
然而,这次选举却让中东最成熟的民主国家陷入了无明确组阁路径的境地。结果不分胜负,两大对立阵营在议会中均无法获得多数席位。有人或许会说这只是常态。
Yet this election left the most established democracy in the Middle East without a clear path to a new government. It produced an inconclusive result where neither opposing bloc will have a majority in parliament. Some might say this was business as usual.
以色列从未出现过单一政党政府。其碎片化的比例代表制几乎注定了必须通过联合政府来执政。
Israel has never had a one-party government. Its fragmented, proportional representation system is almost designed to govern by coalition.
然而,许多评论员警告,这次选举暴露出这个国家根深蒂固、或许正在加深的分裂。这并非选民围绕单一议题团结一致的公投。
Yet many commentators warned this election had revealed the fundamental and perhaps growing divisions that scar this nation. This was not a plebiscite in which an electorate united around a single cause.
以色列大选结果扑朔迷离——原因何在 其中一些裂痕并非新近出现。早些年,因司法改革引发的分歧曾导致大规模示威。
Israel's election result is messy - here's why Some of these fissures are not new. There were divisions over judicial reforms that led to mass demonstrations in the early years of this government.
对于如何应对2023年10月7日致命袭击——是营救人质还是摧毁哈马斯——也存在分歧。以色列预备役军人在随后加沙战斗中遭受的伤亡,加深了人们对超正统派年轻男性免除兵役的不满。但这次选举是否让以色列社会内部深层的断层线显得更加尖锐?存在宗教与世俗之间的张力,分歧不仅关乎信仰,也关乎社会。
There were also divisions over how to respond to the deadly 7 October 2023 attacks - whether to save hostages or destroy Hamas. The casualties suffered by Israeli reservists in the fighting in Gaza that followed deepened tensions over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox young men from military service But has this election put in even sharper contrast the deep fault-lines that lie within Israeli society? There are the tensions between the religious and the secular, divides not just of faith but of society.
以色列政府是否应资助宗教学习?当其他人不必服役时,一些父母是否应牺牲儿女来保卫以色列?超正统派如今占人口近15%。他们的世界观与特拉维夫高科技、现代化社区的居民截然不同。在根本政治立场上也存在分歧。
Should Israel's government subsidise religious study? Should some parents sacrifice their sons and daughters to defend Israel when others do not? The ultra-Orthodox now make up almost 15% of the population. Their world-view is poles apart from that of denizens of high-tech, modern neighbourhoods of Tel Aviv. There are divisions over fundamental politics.
本雅明·内塔尼亚胡呼吁建立“强有力的右翼民族政府”。内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团遭受重大损失,但仍有望成为议会(Knesset)第一大党。一切皆因一位被指控贪腐的总理——他予以否认;一位被指控在10月7日前未能保护以色列的领导人——他拒绝允许对此展开调查。约10%的选民支持犹太至上主义的极右翼:像财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇这样的政客,甚至在开票结果公布之际,仍承诺在加沙建立犹太人定居点。
Benjamin Netanyahu has called for "a strong right-wing national government" Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party suffered significant losses, but is still on track to be the largest in the Knesset. All this for a prime minister accused of corruption, which he denies; a leader also accused of failing to protect Israel before 7 October, something he will not allow to be investigated Some 10% of voters backed the Jewish supremacist far-right: politicians like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who even as results were being announced was promising to establish Jewish settlements in Gaza.

代表约五分之一以色列公民的阿拉伯政党大获全胜,赢得约15%的选票,可能获得十几个席位。
The Arab parties, which represent about a fifth of Israeli citizens, made huge gains, winning some 15% of the vote, potentially giving them seats numbering in the high teens.
还有反对派阵营,由加迪·艾森科特率领的中间派、左派和右派混合体,未能赢得他们想要的变革——许多人认为这种变革关乎这个国家的生存未来。
And then there was the opposition bloc, a mix of centre, left and right led by Gadi Eisenkot who fell short of winning the change they wanted - change that many believed was existential for the future of this country.
加迪·艾森科特宣称,公众已“表达了对变革的支持”。这些截然不同的观点如何凝聚成某种形式的政府,如今是以色列政坛面临的一项不讨好的任务——他们可能不得不做出的选择和妥协,可能涉及关乎国家未来的根本性决定。
Gadi Eisenkot declared that the public had "spoken in favour of change" How these vastly diverging views coalesce into some form of government is now the unenviable task facing Israel's body politic - the choices and compromises they may have to make could involve fundamental decisions about the country's future.

内塔尼亚胡是否准备抛弃其宗教盟友,转而与反对派阵营中的右翼人士组建联盟?他们是否准备吞下对总理的敌意,加入其政府?
Would Netanyahu be ready to abandon his religious allies and form a coalition with right-wingers from the opposition bloc? Would they be ready to swallow their hostility towards the prime minister and sit in his government?
反对派阵营是否准备放弃其大部分竞选承诺,与阿拉伯政党合作以迫使内塔尼亚胡下台?阿拉伯政党是否准备冒险加入一个可能在几个月内倒台的政府?
Is the opposition bloc ready to abandon much of its campaign promises and co-operate with Arab parties to force Netanyahu out of office? Are the Arab parties ready to risk joining a government that could fall within months?
左翼民主党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰敦促反对派阵营与阿拉伯政党结成伙伴关系。“我们绝不能再接受内塔尼亚胡在犹太人选票和阿拉伯人选票之间制造的种族主义分裂,”他说。但以色列民众是否已为这种现实做好准备?
Yair Golan, the left-wing Democrat leader, urged the opposition bloc to form a partnership with Arab parties. "We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes," he said. But are the people of Israel ready for such a reality?
对内塔尼亚胡持同情态度的以色列评论员阿米特·塞加尔表示,阿拉伯裔以色列选民的高投票率“提醒双方的犹太人,在多年的分裂之后,他们或许终究得学会坐在一起”。
Amit Segal, an Israeli commentator sympathetic towards Netanyahu, said the high turnout among Arab Israeli voters "reminded Jews on both sides that, after years of division, they may have to learn to sit together after all".
风险在于,这次大选非但没有让以色列踏上新道路,反而进一步加深了人们对什么能将其公民凝聚在一起的疑虑。是什么共同因素将这群复杂、多元的人民捆绑成一个政治共同体?
The risk is that this election, instead of putting Israel on a new path, has instead raised further doubts about what it is that unites its citizens. What are the common factors that bind this complex, varied collection of peoples into one polity?
数量日益增多的专制政府长期以来一直批评民主制度产生软弱且短命的政府,往往是难以维系的脆弱联盟,更别提兑现民众诉求了。
Autocratic governments, which are growing in number, have long criticised democracies for producing weak and temporary governments, often fragile coalitions that struggle to hold together, let alone deliver what the people wanted.
以色列现在可能要为组建政府挣扎数月。甚至可能以失败告终,被迫再次举行大选。
Israel may now struggle for months to form a government. It might even fail and have to hold another election.
以色列总统赫尔佐格在准备开启联合政府组建谈判时,直面这一风险:“我们必须竭尽所能,尤其是在昨天之后,避免再次举行大选。”多年来,以色列一直专注于抵御外部敌人。但如果这场选举放大的分歧变得无法收拾,它现在是否也必须做好准备,抵御来自内部的危险?
President Herzog acknowledged this risk head on as he prepared to open coalition negotiations: "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections." For years, Israel has focused on defending itself against its external enemies. But must it also now be ready to defend itself from perils within, if the divisions writ large by this election become unmanageable?
在另一次演讲中,丘吉尔曾说,民主不仅是“抵御来自国外危险的保险”。他补充道,它也是“抵御那些严重性不亚于外部威胁、却更加迫近且持续不断、威胁着我们在国内安全的危险的保险”。以色列的民主能否经受住这一考验?以色列-加沙战争 以色列
In another speech, Churchill once said democracy was not just "insurance against dangers from abroad". It was also, he added, "insurance against dangers scarcely less grave and much more near and constant which threaten us here at home". Can Israel's democracy live up to this challenge? Israel-Gaza war Israel