科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数期货显示，开盘将出现下跌，但美国股市其他部分看起来还不错。而且，除了谷歌母公司Alphabet之外，大多数科技股表现也不错。令人失望的搜索结果掩盖了Alphabet云业务的增长。亚马逊和英特尔的盘后财报是接下来可能影响市场的数据。关注我们的实时市场数据和报道。这大概就是石油巨头能达到的最好状态了。
Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite point to opening losses, but the rest of the U.S. stock market looks fine. What’s more, aside from Google parent Alphabet, most tech stocks look good too. Disappointing search results eclipsed growth in Alphabet’s cloud business. Amazon and Intel numbers after the bell are the next potentially market-moving ones. Follow our live markets data and coverage. This is about as good as it gets for Big Oil.
两家美国能源超级巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙，都将于周五早上公布有史以来最赚钱的季度之一。伊朗和乌克兰的战争让像它们这样的综合性生产商——既开采又炼制原油的公司——处于一个似乎永无止境的甜蜜点。
The two U.S. energy supermajors, ExxonMobil and Chevron, are each set to report one of their most profitable quarters ever on Friday morning. Wars in Iran and Ukraine have put integrated producers like them—those that both pump and refine crude—in a sweet spot that seemingly refuses to end.
但投资者知道这种情况会结束，因为商品市场总是如此。高价格鼓励消费者节约资源并寻找替代品，而对生产商而言，高价格则激励更多投资以获取这些超额利润。
But investors know it will, because it always does for commodities. High prices encourage consumers to conserve resources and seek alternatives, while for producers they motivate more investment to capture those extraordinary profits.
自八个月前伊朗遭袭击以来，它们的市值增长幅度与每股自由现金流预期增长幅度之间，似乎存在相当密切的联系。这就是用来回报股东的剩余资金。
There seems to be a fairly close connection between how much their market value has increased and how much expectations for free cash flow per share have risen since the attack on Iran eight months ago. That’s the money left over to reward shareholders.
另一个繁荣但臭名昭著的周期性行业——计算机内存，看起来就没有那么稳固。对此有两种解释。
Another booming but notoriously cyclical sector, computer memory, doesn’t look as grounded. There are two explanations for that.
一种是，人工智能热潮将非常巨大且持久，将延长数年，超出分析师的预测范围。另一种解释是，投资者已经走得太远了。
One is that the AI boom will be so big and long-lasting that it’ll extend years beyond analysts’ forecast horizon. The other explanation is that investors have gotten ahead of themselves.
这些涨幅与能源行业完全不在一个量级上。自伊朗战斗开始以来，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙的股价分别上涨了19%和23%。而美光和闪迪的股价自2025年初以来分别上涨了约1000%和3700%。计算机内存公司的股价涨幅，是FactSet汇总的分析师共识自由现金流预期在截至2028财年累计增长幅度的两倍半。
The gains are on an entirely different scale than energy. Exxon and Chevron shares are up by 19% and 23%, respectively, since fighting began in Iran. Those of Micron and Sandisk are up about 1,000% and 3,700% since early 2025. The computer memory companies’ shares have appreciated two-and-a-half times as much as the cumulative increase in analysts’ consensus free-cash-flow expectations compiled by FactSet through fiscal year 2028.
他们的业务也像能源一样经历过繁荣与萧条，但如今竞相买入其股票的投资者们的集体记忆可能更短暂。迄今为止，每一股美光科技的易手频率是埃克森美孚的六倍。
Their business has seen booms and busts just like energy, but the collective memories of investors bidding their shares up today might be shorter. Each Micron share has changed hands six times as frequently as one of Exxon so far this year.
一些新兴基金专门瞄准计算机存储，因为利润和股价飙升。Roundhill于四月推出的一只基金成为有史以来增长最快的交易所交易基金。
Popular new funds have specifically targeted computer memory as profits and stock prices soared. One launched in April by Roundhill became the fastest-growing ETF of all time.
石油和芯片如同苹果与橘子，但钱就是钱。如果有一个行业在估值上值得获得一些信任，那大概是能源。德克萨斯州的一家炼油厂、圭亚那的一个油田或路易斯安那州的一个液化天然气终端，自霍尔木兹海峡被封锁以来，其价值已比之前略有提升，因为它们面临的中断风险较小。
Oil and chips are like apples and oranges, but money is money. And, if one sector deserves some benefit of the doubt on valuation, it’s probably energy. A refinery in Texas, oil field in Guyana or LNG terminal in Louisiana have become a bit more valuable than before the Strait of Hormuz was blocked since they face less risk of disruption.
随着中国投入资源发展半导体以实现自给自足，存储业务面临的政治风向正好相反。北京在质量和数量上的追赶竞赛，有一天可能会以西方公司认为不合理的方式使市场泛滥。
With China pouring resources into semiconductors to achieve self-sufficiency, the political winds blow the other way for the memory business. Beijing’s race to catch up in quality and quantity could one day flood the market in ways Western companies wouldn’t consider rational.
此外，信息技术比碳氢化合物演变得更快，能更快地绕过短缺。你可能开着一辆十年的旧车，但你不会使用一部那么旧的智能手机。
What’s more, information technology evolves more quickly than hydrocarbons to get around shortages. You might be driving a 10-year old car, but you aren’t using a smartphone that old.
石油超级巨头的投资者可能没有多少上涨空间了。不过，当当前的利润狂潮结束时，他们可能面临的下跌空间也较小。
Investors in oil supermajors may not have much more upside ahead of them. They’ll probably face less downside when today’s profit bonanza ends, though.
Alphabet：谷歌母公司在开盘前暴跌10%，原因是其包含搜索广告的核心业务部门的收入未达分析师预期。
Alphabet: The Google parent tumbled 10% ahead of the opening bell after it missed analysts’ expectations on revenues from its core business unit that includes search advertising.
Microsoft：这家科技巨头在盘前上涨3%，此前其报告称云计算部门增长加速，缓解了投资者对其AI基础设施服务需求的担忧。
Microsoft: The technology giant climbed 3% premarket after it reported accelerating growth in its cloud-computing unit, relieving investors’ worries about demand for its AI infrastructure services.
Samsung Electronics：这家韩国芯片制造商下跌4%，此前其净利润未达分析师预期，尽管其报告了连续第四个季度的创纪录盈利。
Samsung Electronics: The South Korean chip maker fell 4% after its net profit fell short of analysts’ expectations, even as it reported its fourth consecutive quarter of record earnings.
壳牌：这家石油巨头公布其炼油业务在全球燃料短缺之际利润丰厚，该公司股价在伦敦市场上涨近3%。
Shell: The oil major climbed nearly 3% in London trading after it reported bumper profits from its refining business amid the global fuel crunch.
奇波雷墨西哥烧烤：这家墨西哥卷饼连锁店公布季度营收增长、同店销售额上升，盘前股价上涨逾6%。
Chipotle Mexican Grill: The burrito chain rose more than 6% premarket after it reported higher quarterly revenue and a gain in comparable-restaurant sales.
eBay：这家电商平台第三季度利润和营收因收藏品业务表现强劲而超出华尔街预期，盘前交易上涨逾6%。
eBay: The e-commerce platform is up more than 6% in premarket trading after strength in its collectibles business pushed third-quarter profit and revenue above Wall Street’s expectations.
亚马逊：这家电商和云计算巨头将在今日收盘后公布财报，成为下一个公布业绩的大型科技公司。今日公布财报的公司还包括英特尔。
Amazon.com: The e-commerce and cloud-computing giant will be the next Big Tech name to report earnings, after today’s closing bell. Other companies reporting today include Intel.
波斯湾石油出口已大幅回升，有时甚至恢复并超过战前水平。但全球基准布伦特原油价格再度攀升至每桶110美元左右，这一价位上一次出现是在4月底，当时出口量约为目前的一半。此轮上涨反映出市场对局势再度升级的担忧、石油库存不断减少，以及临时拼凑的运输体系仍然危险且运营成本高昂。
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded significantly, at times returning to and even surpassing their prewar volumes. But prices for the global benchmark Brent have once again climbed to around $110 a barrel, a level last seen in late April when exports were about half of what they are now. The price rally reflects fears of renewed escalation, dwindling oil stockpiles and a makeshift shipping system that remains dangerous and expensive to operate.
1822年的今天，在最早一波新兴市场投资狂潮如火如荼之际，尼加拉瓜附近的波亚伊斯王国票面利率6%的债券在伦敦证券交易所按面值的81.5%交易，仅次于智利（后者按面值的84%交易）。不幸的是，波亚伊斯是一个由苏格兰骗子捏造的虚构国家。
On this day in 1822, in the heat of the earliest frenzy for investing in emerging markets, the 6% bonds of the Kingdom of Poyais, near Nicaragua, traded at 81.5% of their par value on the London Stock Exchange, just behind Chile (at 84% of par). Unfortunately, Poyais was a fictitious country fabricated by a Scottish con man.
《华尔街日报》| 买方：最优质的余额转账信用卡提供较长的0%初始年利率期限和合理的转账手续费，从而降低摆脱债务的成本。
WSJ | Buy Side: The best balance-transfer credit cards offer long 0% introductory APR periods and reasonable transfer fees, making it less expensive to get out of debt.
长期以来，商业和金融一直令我着迷。在撰写本通讯之前，我曾担任《华尔街日报》“街头传闻”栏目主编长达十年，撰写过两本投资书籍，并在一家全球投资银行管理过一个股票分析师团队。
Business and finance have fascinated me for a long time. Before writing this newsletter, I edited The Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street team for a decade, wrote two investment books and managed a team of stock analysts at a global investment bank.
《Markets A.M.》通讯为您准备即将到来的交易日，提供对将推动市场的公司和行业的专家洞见。请将您的反馈发送至 markets.am@wsj.com（如果您在收件箱中阅读此邮件，只需直接回复即可）。
The Markets A.M. newsletter prepares you for the trading day ahead, with expert insight into the companies and industries set to move markets. Send your feedback to markets.am@wsj.com (if you’re reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply).