弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗前往美国有助于卢拉总统。分析人士称，这一举动削弱了巴西右翼势力，让卢拉在与国会打交道时拥有更大空间。
Flavio Bolsonaro’s move to the US helps President Lula. Analysts say it weakens Brazil’s right and gives Lula more room to deal with Congress.
博尔索纳罗家族的影响力正在消退。若尔·博尔索纳罗正在服27年徒刑，他的其他子女不被视为明确的领导人。
The Bolsonaro family’s influence is fading. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence, and his other children are not seen as clear leaders.
这一举动可能会紧张巴西与美国的关系。它支持卢拉关于美国干涉的说法，而华盛顿此前已对巴西实施签证禁令和50%的关税。
The move may strain US-Brazil ties. It supports Lula’s claims of US meddling and comes as Washington has already imposed visa bans and 50% tariffs on Brazil.
AI 生成 巴西利亚/圣保罗 - 弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗逃离巴西的法律问题，在美国新家自称巴西合法的“领导人”，这为左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦做了一件大事，分析人士和巴西官员表示。
AI generated BRASILIA/SAO PAULO - Flavio Bolsonaro did leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva a huge favour by fleeing his legal problems in Brazil to declare himself Brazil’s rightful “leader” from his new home in the United States, analysts and Brazilian officials said.
博尔索纳罗的离开发生在他拒绝遵守最高法院交出护照的命令之后，这削弱了巴西国会中嚣张的保守派反对派，并为卢拉指责美国干涉以帮助博尔索纳罗家族提供了可信度，他们说。
Bolsonaro’s departure, which came after he refused to comply with a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports, weakens an emboldened conservative opposition in Brazil’s Congress and lends credibility to Lula’s accusations of US meddling to help the Bolsonaro family, they said.
博尔索纳罗称自己是选举政变的受害者，但未提供选举舞弊的证据。
Bolsonaro says he was a victim of an electoral coup, but has not provided evidence for electoral fraud.
面对不断增长的债务和培养可信的左翼继任者等一系列挑战，卢拉现在少了一个博尔索纳罗需要担心，这使他能够与缺乏领导人的国会反对派建立更具交易性的关系，他们补充道。
While Lula faces a groaning inbox of challenges, from taming growing debt to grooming a credible leftist successor, he now has one less Bolsonaro to worry about, allowing him to build a more transactional relationship with leaderless congressional opponents, they added.
“考虑到当地动态，弗拉维奥逃往美国对卢拉有利，”总部位于圣保罗的咨询公司控制风险公司合伙人罗德里戈·鲁索表示。
“Considering the local dynamics, Lula benefits from Flavio’s escape to the US,” said Rodrigo Russo, a São Paulo-based partner at consultancy firm Control Risks.
博尔索纳主义削弱了卢拉的胜利已得到巴西联邦选举法院、全球领导人、国际观察员以及博尔索纳罗本人所在政党的承认，该政党并未支持博尔索纳罗关于选举舞弊的说法。
Bolsonarismo weakened Lula’s victory has been recognised by Brazil’s federal electoral court, global leaders, international observers and Bolsonaro’s own party, which did not back Bolsonaro’s claims of electoral fraud.
10月29日，即弗拉维奥前往美国的次日，他的政治盟友试图与他声称自己是巴西合法“领导人”的说法保持距离。
On Oct 29, the day after Flavio moved to the US, his political allies sought to distance themselves from his claims of being Brazil’s legitimate “leader”.
博索纳罗的离开可能会引发关于谁将领导巴西右翼的权力真空，卢拉可能会利用这一点。
Bolsonaro’s exit is likely to spark a power vacuum over who will now lead Brazil’s right that Lula may be able to exploit.
“通常，人们更愿意与已经获得新任期的政府接触，”政治学家、Tendencias Consultoria合伙人拉斐尔·科尔特斯说。“对话的空间由此出现。”弗拉维奥的父亲、若尔·博索纳罗目前因策划2022年政变而服27年徒刑，而他的哥哥、前议员爱德华多·博索纳罗也身在美国，不太可能回到巴西。
“There’s generally more willingness to engage with an administration that has secured a new term,” Rafael Cortez, a political scientist and partner at Tendencias Consultoria, said. “An opening for dialogue emerges.”Flavio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a 2022 coup, while his brother, former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, is also based in the US and unlikely to return to Brazil.
若尔·博索纳罗的另外三个孩子目前不被视为博索纳主义的可信接班人。
Jair Bolsonaro’s three other children are not currently seen as credible torchbearers of Bolsonarismo.
若尔·博索纳罗的妻子、著名的福音派信徒、在数百万巴西信徒中拥有影响力的米歇尔·博索纳罗，在10月当选参议员后，正迈出在国会的第一步。
Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife and a prominent evangelical who appeals to millions of Brazil’s faithful, is taking her first steps in Congress after being elected senator in October.
10月27日，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗所属自由党主席瓦尔德马尔·科斯塔·内托在X上发布了一张他与米歇尔并肩微笑的照片，称他们讨论了“我们党的未来以及我们面临的挑战”。
On Oct 27, the head of Flavio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, posted a photo on X of him smiling alongside her, saying they had discussed “the future of our party and the challenges we face ahead”.
弗拉维奥的离开削弱了博索纳主义，一位卢拉的助手对路透社表示。该助手说，留在巴西的右翼反对派可能会更务实地与卢拉打交道。
Flavio’s exit has weakened Bolsonarismo, a Lula aide told Reuters. The adviser said that the right-wing opposition that remains in Brazil will likely deal with Lula more pragmatically.
“这为更民主的右翼的出现创造了空间，而这是这个国家明显缺乏的东西，”该助手说。
“It creates space for the emergence of a more democratic right, something we’ve seen the country is clearly missing,” the aide said.
巴西与美国关系可能会紧张。分析人士表示，博索纳罗飞往美国为卢拉关于美国不当支持其竞选的说法增添了可信度，同时也使美洲两个人口最多的国家之间的关系复杂化。
US-Brazil ties may become strained Bolsonaro’s flight to the US lends credibility to Lula’s claims of improper US support to bolster his candidacy, analysts said, while complicating relations between the two most populous nations in the Americas.
2025年7月，华盛顿宣布了一系列针对巴西的措施，包括吊销八名最高法院大法官的签证，以及对巴西商品征收50%的关税，理由是称若尔·博索纳罗因受审而遭受所谓的“迫害”。
In July 2025, Washington announced a series of measures against Brazil, including the revocations of eight Supreme Court justices’ visas and 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing the alleged “persecution” of Jair Bolsonaro for putting him on trial.
迄今为止，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普批评了巴西的选举，但对哪位候选人获胜的问题避而不谈，专家将此解读为他希望与拥有全球第二大稀土储量（仅次于中国）的巴西保持合作关系。
So far, US President Donald Trump has criticised Brazil’s election but skirted around questions over which candidate won, which experts interpret as him wanting to maintain a working relationship with Brazil, home to the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earths after China.
博索纳罗的离任“使与美国政府的关系变得复杂，美国政府内部将有利益相关者推动实施制裁和关税”，鲁索说。
Bolsonaro’s departure “complicates the relationship with the US government, which will have stakeholders pushing for sanctions and tariffs”, Russo said.
这位卢拉顾问表示，特朗普更可能关注下周中期选举前的低迷民调，而不是与巴西的关系。
The Lula adviser said Trump is likely to be more concerned about weak polls ahead of next week’s midterms than about ties with Brazil.
拉丁美洲分析师马里奥·布拉加表示，美国不愿为支持博索纳罗付出高昂代价，尤其是在其试图限制中国在该地区影响力的背景下，包括围绕稀土等问题。布拉加就职于风险咨询公司RANE。
“这是一种务实的看法，因为巴西是美国在美洲扩大影响力的棋局中的关键棋子，”布拉加说。
The US will not want to pay a high price for backing Bolsonaro, especially as it tries to limit Chinese influence in the region, including around issues like rare earths, said Mario Braga, a Latin America analyst at the risk consultancy RANE. “It’s a pragmatic view because Brazil is a key piece in the chess game the United States is playing as it seeks to expand its influence in the Americas,” Braga said.