弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗周二已抵达美国，这是他输掉巴西总统选举两天后的事。回国后，他本党领导人已接受了总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的胜选。博尔索纳罗并未承认，巴西市场仍在消化许多投资者未做好准备的选举结果。选民给予卢拉51.79%的有效选票，胜选票超过440万票。这足以让左翼继续掌控总统府，但不足以让其在巴西利亚全面掌权。
Flávio Bolsonaro was already in the United States by Tuesday, two days after losing Brazil's presidential election. Back home, his own party's leaders had accepted President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory. Bolsonaro had not, and Brazilian markets were still digesting a result many investors had not prepared for. Voters gave Lula 51.79% of valid ballots, a margin of more than 4.4 million votes. That was enough to keep the left in the presidential palace, but not to give it control across Brasília.
卢拉将开启第四个任期，面对国会中更强大的保守派势力、紧张的公共财政以及与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府的新麻烦。投票也使与以色列关系的快速修复不太可能，尽管博尔索纳罗在竞选中承诺达成此目标。最终计票结果为卢拉6425万6232票，博尔索纳罗5982万6041票。卢拉在首轮投票中落后，因此决选结果既是一次逆转，也是一次连任。
Lula will begin his fourth term facing a stronger conservative presence in Congress, strained public finances and fresh trouble with US President Donald Trump's administration. The vote also made a rapid repair in relations with Israel less likely, despite Bolsonaro's campaign promise to deliver one. The final count was 64,256,232 for Lula and 59,826,041 for Bolsonaro. Lula trailed in the first round, making the runoff result both a comeback and a reelection.
国会投票则讲述了另一个故事。博尔索纳罗的自由党在众议院赢得121个席位，在参议院赢得28个席位。圣保罗大学的吉尔森·施瓦茨估计，更广泛的右翼目前控制着众议院约59%的席位。“因此，巴西选出的不是左翼政治体制，而是一个分裂政府，”施瓦茨在给《媒体线》的书面答复中表示。他说，这种分裂反映了选民在意识形态上不如该国两极分化所暗示的那样一致。
The congressional vote told a different story. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won 121 seats in the lower chamber and 28 in the Senate. Gilson Schwartz of the University of São Paulo estimates that the broader right now holds about 59% of the Chamber of Deputies. “Brazil has therefore elected not a left-wing political regime, but a divided government,” Schwartz told The Media Line in written responses. He said the split reflected an electorate less ideologically consistent than the country's polarization suggests.
选民支持卢拉是为了社会保障、制度稳定以及他个人的政治地位，同时在犯罪、税收、监管和文化问题上支持保守派国会候选人，施瓦茨解释道。这种分裂可能会阻碍总统的国内议程。国会可以阻止大规模支出方案和广泛的制度变革，但也可以要求为立法者的选区和偏好的项目拨款。
Voters backed Lula for social protection, institutional stability, and his personal political standing, while supporting conservative congressional candidates on crime, taxes, regulation, and cultural issues, Schwartz explained. That division will likely hinder the president's domestic agenda. Congress can block large spending packages and sweeping institutional changes, but it can also demand money for lawmakers' districts and favored projects.
伊戈尔·巴伦博伊姆是前巴西经济政策秘书，拥有哈佛大学博士学位，他驳斥了保守派议会会自动实施财政纪律的说法。“国会喜欢花钱。这就是他们的所作所为，”巴伦博伊姆对《媒体线》表示。立法者有强烈的动机向其选区拨款，他说，无论他们坐在右翼还是左翼。尽管如此，他预计卢拉长期的联合政治经验将能与中间派和温和右翼达成可行的安排。
Igor Barenboim, a former Brazilian secretary of economic policy and a Harvard University doctorate holder, rejected the notion that a conservative legislature would automatically impose fiscal discipline. “Congress likes to spend. That's what they do,” Barenboim told The Media Line. Lawmakers have strong incentives to send money to their constituencies, he said, regardless of whether they sit on the right or the left. Even so, he expects Lula's long experience with coalition politics to produce a workable arrangement with the center and moderate right.
巴西选举结果的经济影响周一的抛售非常严重。伊博维斯帕指数在交易暂时中断后收盘下跌13.88%，美元兑巴西雷亚尔上涨超过8%。巴伦博伊姆对这一走势的解读不如收盘数字那么戏剧化。他说，在博索纳罗领先第一轮投票后，资金流入了巴西资产，而押注政府更替的交易员在卢拉获胜后急忙平仓。对巴伦博伊姆来说，更关键的数字在于公共账目。
Economic effects of Brazilian election resultsMonday's selloff was severe. The Ibovespa closed 13.88% lower after trading was temporarily halted, and the dollar gained more than 8% against the real. Barenboim's reading of the move was less dramatic than the closing numbers. He said money had flowed into Brazilian assets after Bolsonaro led the first round, and traders who had bet on a change of government rushed to unwind those positions once Lula won. For Barenboim, the harder numbers are in the public accounts.
他估计，在卢拉第三个任期内，政府债务从国内生产总值的约72%上升至83%。巴西的潜在增长率仍为每年约2%，而初级赤字接近国内生产总值的半个百分点。计入高实际利率后，他将名义赤字估计为约9%。他说，政府对信贷的需求使得私营公司的资金更加稀缺和昂贵，从而减少了值得进行的投资。卢拉在竞选中主张扩大公共项目，投资者正在等待看哪些承诺能在选举后兑现。
He estimated that government debt rose from about 72% to 83% of gross domestic product during Lula's third term. Brazil's potential growth is still around 2% a year, while the primary deficit is close to half a percentage point of GDP. Once high real interest rates are included, he puts the nominal deficit at roughly 9%. The government's demand for credit then makes money scarcer and more expensive for private companies, he said, leaving fewer investments worth undertaking. Lula campaigned on expanded public programs, leaving investors waiting to see which promises survive the election.
巴伦博伊姆表示，任命一位亲市场的财政部长有助于平息情绪，但总统的决定比人事安排更重要。“重要的是总统想做什么。而我们不知道，”他说。
Naming a market-friendly finance minister would help calm sentiment, Barenboim said, but the president's decisions will matter more than personnel. “What matters is what the president wants to do. And we don't know,” he said.
巴伦博伊姆预计卢拉将推行有限的财政整顿，方式可能是取消政府归类为税式支出的税收优惠，而非大幅削减开支。他的核心预测是“勉强维持”：卢拉会采取足够措施防止财政失序，但与许多投资者期望的财政调整相去甚远。政治压力不仅限于预算。周日，博索纳罗拒绝承认败选，并最初表示将寻求宣布选举无效，原因是由于交通问题和恶劣天气，一些投票站的投票时间被延长。
Barenboim expects Lula to pursue limited consolidation, probably by withdrawing tax breaks that the government classifies as tax expenditures rather than through dramatic spending cuts. His central scenario is one of “muddling through,” with Lula doing enough to prevent fiscal disorganization but stopping well short of the adjustment sought by many investors. The political pressure is not confined to the budget. Bolsonaro refused to concede Sunday and initially said he would seek to annul the election because voting was extended at some polling locations following transportation problems and severe weather.
他的竞选团队还要求在受影响地区延长投票时间。在原定关闭时间之后，仅有约3.43万张选票投出，远低于卢拉的胜选差距；博索纳罗所在的自由党后来承认了最高选举法院公布的结果。博索纳罗随后改变了说辞，称他将寻求取消卢拉候选人组合的资格，理由是其涉嫌滥用政治和经济权力。到周二，他已在未按一项单独洗钱调查的命令交出护照后前往美国。
His campaign had also requested additional voting time in affected areas. Only about 34,300 ballots were cast after the original closing time, far below Lula's winning margin, and Bolsonaro's Liberal Party later recognized the result announced by the Superior Electoral Court. Bolsonaro subsequently shifted his argument, saying he would seek to disqualify the Lula ticket over alleged abuse of political and economic power. By Tuesday, he had traveled to the United States after failing to surrender his passports as ordered in a separate money-laundering investigation.
博索纳罗否认在该案中有不当行为。一名美国高级官员表示，他和他的家人将获得签证，尽管华盛顿方面并未宣布他获得了庇护。施瓦茨表示，法律挑战似乎很薄弱，但他警告说，质疑选举结果仍可能通过国会、社交媒体和海外盟友让博索纳罗的支持者保持动员状态。他的离开可能会削弱他日常管理反对派的能力，同时增强他在反对派中最激进成员中的象征性地位。
Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing in that case. A senior US official said he and his family would be granted visas, although Washington did not announce that he had received asylum. Schwartz said the legal challenge appeared weak but warned that questioning the election could still keep Bolsonaro's supporters mobilized through Congress, social media and allies abroad. His departure may reduce his ability to manage the opposition day to day while strengthening his symbolic position among its most radical members.
施瓦茨说：“危险在于出现一种跨国反对派，同时通过巴西强大的保守派国会集团和美国的政治网络运作。”
“The danger is the emergence of a kind of transnational opposition operating simultaneously through Brazil's powerful conservative congressional bloc and political networks in the United States,” Schwartz said.
他补充说，博尔索纳罗能否从国外领导这一阵营，将取决于州长、参议员和党内官员在又一次总统选举失利后，是否继续接受其家族的领导。特朗普质疑巴西大选结果特朗普在未提出欺诈证据的情况下质疑巴西大选结果。其政府愿意接纳博尔索纳罗及其家人，给本已因贸易争端和华盛顿对巴西关键矿产的兴趣而紧张的双边关系增添了新的摩擦点。
Whether Bolsonaro can lead it from abroad, he added, will depend on whether governors, senators, and party officials continue to accept his family's leadership after another presidential defeat. Trump questions results of Brazilian electionTrump has questioned the Brazilian result without presenting evidence of fraud. His administration's willingness to admit Bolsonaro and his family has added another point of friction to a relationship already strained by trade disputes and Washington's interest in Brazil's critical minerals.
施瓦茨表示，巴西利亚应当区分美国合法的经济利益与对巴西体制的干涉。“主权是红线，”他说。施瓦茨和巴伦博伊姆都不认为与华盛顿的争论会以断交或贸易中断告终。巴伦博伊姆将巴西描述为一个相对封闭的经济体，其出口集中在大豆、玉米和咖啡等产品上。他说，华盛顿对巴西稀土感兴趣，但几乎没有动力以会严重损害两国的规模与巴西对抗。
Schwartz said Brasília should distinguish between legitimate US economic interests and interference in Brazilian institutions. “Sovereignty is the red line,” he said. Neither Schwartz nor Barenboim expects the argument with Washington to end in a diplomatic or commercial break. Barenboim described Brazil as a relatively closed economy whose exports are concentrated in products such as soybeans, corn and coffee. Washington has an interest in Brazilian rare earths, he said, but little incentive to confront Brazil on a scale that would seriously damage both countries.
他主要的警示在于银行体系：美国的金融制裁将比政治争端或另一轮关税战后果严重得多。
His principal caveat was the banking system: US financial sanctions would be far more consequential than a political quarrel or another round of tariffs.
来自该地区的信息给卢拉提供了早期的回旋余地衡量。智利总统何塞·安东尼奥·卡斯特、秘鲁总统凯科·藤森、厄瓜多尔总统丹尼尔·诺沃亚和哥伦比亚总统阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里耶拉均承认了他的胜利，尽管他们均来自右翼或中右翼执政。他们的政府在边境安全、能源、基础设施、移民和亚马逊雨林等问题上仍需巴西合作。施瓦茨表示，这些利益使得务实合作比将南美洲划分为敌对意识形态阵营的努力更有可能。博尔索纳罗政府上台将几乎立即改变巴西利亚对以色列的立场。
Messages from the region offered Lula an early measure of room to maneuver. Presidents José Antonio Kast of Chile, Keiko Fujimori of Peru, Daniel Noboa of Ecuador and Abelardo de la Espriella of Colombia all acknowledged his victory, although each governs from the right or center-right. Their governments still need Brazil on border security, energy, infrastructure, migration and the Amazon. Schwartz said those interests make practical cooperation more likely than an effort to divide South America into rival ideological camps. A Bolsonaro administration would have changed Brasília's posture toward Israel almost immediately.
他曾承诺将巴西大使馆从特拉维夫迁至耶路撒冷、接待新任以色列大使并扩大防务合作。卢拉没有做出这样的表态。他指控以色列在加沙实施种族灭绝，支持巴勒斯坦建国，并介入南非在国际法院起诉以色列的案件。目前两国均未在对方首都派驻大使。外交上的冷淡并未阻止货物往来。据施瓦茨介绍，2025年巴西向以色列出口了约5.69亿美元的商品，进口约13亿美元。
He had pledged to move the Brazilian Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, receive a new Israeli ambassador and expand defense cooperation. Lula offers no such opening. He has accused Israel of genocide in Gaza, supported Palestinian statehood and intervened in South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. Neither country currently has an ambassador posted in the other's capital. The diplomatic chill has not stopped cargo from moving. According to Schwartz, Brazil sold about $569 million in goods to Israel in 2025 and bought roughly $1.3 billion.
食品、化肥、机械、技术和医疗设备仍是双边贸易的一部分。2026年1月至9月，巴西对以色列的农产品出口额已超过2025年全年水平。巴西和以色列可能在2027年仍然互不派驻大使，但不会没有生意可做。化肥、食品、机械和医疗设备继续流通，即便官方渠道不断收窄。对卢拉而言，更具考验性的问题是，他能否将这种顽强的商业纽带转化为政治通道——在捍卫巴勒斯坦建国的同时，不让巴西对以色列政府的批评变成拒绝与以色列本身打交道。
Food, fertilizer, machinery, technology and medical equipment remained part of that exchange. Brazilian agricultural sales to Israel from January through September 2026 had already passed the figure for all of 2025. Brazil and Israel may enter 2027 without ambassadors, but they won't be without business to conduct. Fertilizer, food, machinery and medical equipment continue to move even as official channels remain diminished. For Lula, the more revealing test will be whether he can turn that stubborn commercial connection into political access, defending Palestinian statehood without allowing Brazil's criticism of the Israeli government to become a refusal to engage with Israel itself.