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美国中期选举倒计时4天:特朗普取消两场集会,民调显示……US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies

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距离美国中期选举还有四天,随着两党展开最后的拉票冲刺,民主党在全国民调中领先。

With four days to go before the United States midterm elections , Democrats are leading in national polls as both parties make their final push for votes.

与此同时,阿拉斯加州的一场法律纠纷恐将推迟参议院选举结果的出炉,而唐纳德·特朗普总统取消了两场周末集会,改为通过电话助选。以下是你需要了解的要点。最新美国中期选举民调显示什么?

Meanwhile, a legal dispute threatens to delay the Senate result in Alaska , and President Donald Trump has cancelled two weekend rallies in favour of campaigning by phone. Here’s what you need to know. What do the latest US midterm polls say?

据 RealClearPolling 数据,民主党以 51.4% 对 43.2% 领先共和党,差距为 8.2 个百分点。

Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, according to RealClearPolling, with a difference of 8.2 percentage points.

美国马凯特法学院民调主任、法学与公共政策教授查尔斯·富兰克林表示,特朗普的支持率下滑和经济担忧令共和党感到不安。

Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll in the US, said Trump’s declining approval ratings and economic concerns are alarming Republicans.

10 月 14 日至 22 日在威斯康星州进行、10 月 28 日发布的最新马凯特法学院民调显示,特朗普的支持率为 37%,不支持率为 61%。

The latest Marquette Law School poll, conducted in Wisconsin from October 14 to October 22 and released on October 28, put Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent and disapproval at 61 percent.

仅有 16% 的受访者表示其财务状况比一年前好转,42% 表示恶化,另外 42% 表示大体持平。

Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 42 percent said they were worse off and another 42 percent said things were about the same.

富兰克林对半岛电视台表示:“民主党选民更热情,也更确定会去投票。”

“Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote,” Franklin told Al Jazeera.

他补充道:“这给民主党带来了重要优势,反映出共和党选民对当前国家状况感到失望。”

“That is giving Democrats an important edge, and reflects Republican disappointment in current national conditions,” he added.

在亚利桑那州,选民面临不断上涨的生活开支,一名退休选民告诉半岛电视台,食品杂货成本已成为主要担忧。

In Arizona, where voters are experiencing increasing living expenses, a retiree told Al Jazeera that the cost of groceries had become a major concern.

“我们已经退休了,每次去杂货店都让我想搞清楚到底发生了什么事,”这位选民说。

“We’re retired, and every time we go to the grocery store, it makes me wonder what the heck is going on,” the voter said. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is polling at 49 percent against Republican Ken Paxton’s 43 percent, according to a CNN survey released on Thursday.

在得克萨斯州,据 CNN 周四发布的一项民调,民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科以 49% 对 43% 领先共和党人肯·帕克斯顿。在密歇根州,同一民调机构发现民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德以 49% 对 42% 领先共和党人迈克·罗杰斯。新消息——CNN参议院民调(Finel)得克萨斯州——塔拉里科领先6个百分点密歇根州——埃尔-赛义德领先7个百分点堪萨斯州——汉密尔顿领先4个百分点缅因州——杰克逊领先4个百分点——政治民调(@PpollingNumbers)2026年10月30日不过,富兰克林警告说:“民调并非对结果的完美预测。

In Michigan, the same pollster found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, 49 percent to 42 percent. New – Finel CNN Senate polls Texas – Talarico +6 Michigan – El-Sayed +7 Kansas – Hamilton +4 Maine – Jackson +4 — Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 30, 2026 However, Franklin warned: “Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes.

“我们可能会看到这些势均力敌的选战朝任一方向倾斜,原因可能是民调误差,也可能是选民略微更多地转向某一方向。”

“We could see those close races go either way, either due to polling errors or due to voters moving just a little more in one direction or the other.”

然而在阿拉斯加州,还存在一个复杂因素:一场法律纠纷可能推迟一场参议院选举的结果。阿拉斯加州的参议院选战正在发生什么?

In Alaska, however, there is also a complication: a legal dispute that could delay the result of a Senate race. What is happening in Alaska’s Senate race?

11月3日投票结束后,阿拉斯加州席位的争夺可能会延续到法庭上。这场纠纷的核心是两名都叫丹·沙利文的候选人:现任共和党参议员,以及一名同名独立候选人,后者也登记为共和党人。

The battle for Alaska’s seat could continue in court after ballots close on November 3. The dispute centres on two candidates named Dan Sullivan : the incumbent Republican senator and an independent candidate with the same name, who is also registered as a Republican.

特朗普指责民主党人招募一名独立候选人来迷惑选民,并分流共和党参议员的选票。

Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate to confuse voters and take support away from the Republican senator.

“这是一个阴谋。这是选举舞弊。彻头彻尾的选举舞弊,”特朗普说。

“It was a scheme. It was an election fraud. Total election fraud,” Trump said.

司法部已就这一纠纷采取法律行动,而民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉否认了这些指控。

The Justice Department has taken legal action over the dispute, while Democrat Mary Peltola denied the accusations.

“我觉得这又是对阿拉斯加人真正想谈论的问题——生活负担能力——的又一次转移视线,”她说。

“I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability,” she said.

半岛电视台美国记者艾伦·费舍尔表示,如果参议院的控制权取决于这一结果,这场纠纷的影响可能超出阿拉斯加州。

Al Jazeera’s US correspondent Alan Fisher said the dispute could have consequences beyond Alaska if the Senate’s control depends on the result.

“如果这成为参议院争夺战中的关键席位,我们可能真的要在11月3日之后好几天、甚至好几周才知道谁掌控参议院,”费舍尔说。过去24小时竞选活动发生了什么?

“If this becomes the key seat in the battle for the Senate, we might not actually know who has control there for several days, maybe even weeks after November 3,” Fisher said. What has happened on the campaign trail in the past 24 hours?

特朗普前往南卡罗来纳州为共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆助选——她是已故的林赛·格雷厄姆的妹妹——她正与安妮·安德鲁斯在一场势均力敌的选战中角逐。

Trump travelled to South Carolina to campaign for Republican senator Darline Graham – sister of the late Lindsey Graham – who is running against Annie Andrews in a closely contested race.

在南卡罗来纳州罗克希尔,特朗普鼓励选民投票,并提醒支持者不要想当然地认为选举结果已经确定。谈到达琳·格雷厄姆时,特朗普表示她目前领先,但他仍需要在那里竞选。“在政治中你永远说不准,对吧?所以你必须出来投票。”他还直接向支持者喊话,要求人群假装他也出现在选票上。

In Rock Hill, Trump encouraged voters to cast their ballots and cautioned his supporters not to take the election outcome for granted. About Graham, Trump said that she was in the lead but that he still had to campaign there. “In politics you never know, right? So you got to get out and vote.”He also addressed his supporters directly and asked the crowd to pretend that he was on the ballot.

“我确实在选票上,因为我们所做的所有这些事情,我们取得的所有这些不可思议的成功,”他补充道。

“And I am on the ballot because all of these things that we’ve done, all of these incredible successes that we have,” he added.

2026年10月29日,美国南卡罗来纳州罗克希尔的一场竞选活动上,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在为现任美国参议员达琳·格雷厄姆助选的中期选举集会上用手指着前方 [乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社]在得克萨斯州,副总统JD·万斯与共和党参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿一同出席了在达拉斯附近韦瑟福德举行的一场集会,共和党人呼吁支持者投票。

US President Donald Trump points his finger at a midterm election campaign rally for incumbent US Senator Darline Graham at a campaign event in Rock Hill, South Carolina, US, on October 29, 2026 [Jonathan Ernst/Reuters] In Texas, Vice President JD Vance attended a rally in Weatherford, near Dallas, alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, as Republicans called on supporters to vote.

“得克萨斯不会投降。得克萨斯不会变成加利福尼亚。它会继续是得克萨斯,对吧?”万斯对支持者说。知名民主党人也加入了竞选活动。

“Texas ain’t surrendering. Texas is not becoming California. It’s going to stay Texas, ain’t that right?”Vance told supporters. Well-known Democrats have also joined the campaign trail.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2026年10月29日在美国南卡罗来纳州罗克希尔的一场竞选活动中,在一场为美国现任参议员达琳·格雷厄姆举行的中期选举竞选集会上指着前方 [乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社]US President Donald Trump points his finger at a midterm election campaign rally for incumbent US Senator Darline Graham at a campaign event in Rock Hill, South Carolina, US, on October 29, 2026 [Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]

周三,前总统巴拉克·奥巴马在佐治亚州发表演讲,支持参议员乔恩·奥索夫,批评特朗普对经济的治理以及他对与伊朗战争的处理方式。

On Wednesday, former President Barack Obama gave a speech in Georgia supporting Senator Jon Ossoff, criticising Trump’s management of the economy and his approach to the war with Iran.

当半岛电视台问及奥巴马的到访时,奥索夫的共和党对手迈克·柯林斯表示,这显示出“乔恩·奥索夫的绝望,因为他知道自己正在落败”。“如果他赢面那么大,他就不会请任何人来帮忙了,”柯林斯说。民主党人周四也在得克萨斯州和佐治亚州开展了竞选活动。

When Al Jazeera asked about Obama’s visit, Ossoff’s Republican opponent, Mike Collins, said it showed “the desperation of Jon Ossoff because he knows he’s losing”. “If he was winning so big, he wouldn’t have brought anybody in,” Collins said. Democrats also campaigned in Texas and Georgia on Thursday.

在达拉斯,参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科举行了一场集会,作为其最后竞选行程的一部分;与此同时,前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在克拉克亚特兰大大学与奥索夫一同现身,敦促年轻人投票。

In Dallas, Senate candidate James Talarico held a rally as part of his final campaign tour, while former Vice President Kamala Harris joined Ossoff at Clark Atlanta University, urging young people to vote.

哈里斯还在佐治亚州梅肯开展了竞选活动,在那里她批评特朗普政府导致生活成本上升。

Harris also campaigned in Macon, Georgia, where she criticised the Trump administration over rising living costs.

“我们现在有一个将痛苦转化为目标的时刻,”哈里斯对民主党志愿者们说。哈里斯还敦促支持者参与地方和全州范围的选举。随后,在克拉克亚特兰大大学,她呼吁学生们保持参与。

“We have a moment now to turn pain into purpose,” Harris told Democratic volunteers. Harris also urged supporters to participate in local and statewide contests. Later, at Clark Atlanta University, she asked students to stay engaged.

“不要忽视那些竞选,因为正是那些人在每天为你们的生活做决定,”她说。

“Don’t overlook those races, because those are the folks who make decisions about your life every day,” she said.

前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在为美国参议员候选人乔恩·奥索夫(民主党-佐治亚州)助选时向Z世代选民发表讲话:“这是我们把愤怒转化为行动的时刻……你们面临着巨大的利害关系,你们有权发表意见并告诉人们你们想要什么。”pic.twitter.com/23tpgMbwPP— CSPAN (@cspan) 2026年10月29日美国中期选举竞选之路上接下来会发生什么?

Former VP Kamala Harris addresses Gen Z voters while campaigning for U.S. Senate candidate Jon Ossoff (D-GA): "This is the moment where we turn that anger into action…You have everything at stake and you have a right to weigh in and tell people what you want." pic.twitter.com/23tpgMbwPP — CSPAN (@cspan) October 29, 2026 What happens next on the US midterms campaign trail?

特朗普取消了周末原定在堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州的公开露面,在周二选举前的最后几天里,他将用横跨近20个州的电话集会取而代之。

Trump has cancelled weekend scheduled appearances in Kansas and Iowa, replacing them with telephone rallies across nearly 20 states in the final days before Tuesday’s elections.

特朗普原本定于周六在堪萨斯州萨利纳露面,并于周日出现在艾奥瓦州迪比克。

Trump had been set to appear in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday .

共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯表示,这一变动将使特朗普能够比通过现场露面接触到更多选民。

Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said the change would allow Trump to reach more voters than he could with in-person appearances.

“全国各地的选民都希望在选举日前听到特朗普总统的声音,这72小时的冲刺将在最后的日子里带来巨大的推动力,”格鲁特斯说。

“Voters across the country want to hear from President Trump before Election Day, and this 72-hour sprint will be a huge boost in the closing days,” Gruters said.

周四被问及取消行程一事时,特朗普质疑了前往堪萨斯州的必要性,共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔在那里正面临民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿的挑战。“我觉得我没必要去堪萨斯州,”特朗普说。

Asked about the cancellations on Thursday, Trump questioned the need to travel to Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton. “I don’t feel I have to go to Kansas,” Trump said.

当路透社记者询问这一决定是否与长途旅行的疲劳有关时,特朗普否认了这种说法。“我感觉好极了,”他在辱骂这名记者之前说道。问:“你没去堪萨斯州,跟厌倦了旅行毫无关系吗?”

When a Reuters reporter asked whether the decision had anything to do with fatigue from travelling, Trump rejected the suggestion. “I feel perfect,” he said, before insulting the reporter. Q: "You not going to Kansas has nothing to do with you being sick of travel?"

总统特朗普:“你问出这种问题才是有病。你有病……我觉得我没必要去堪萨斯州……我感觉好得很。你真恶心。把你自己身材练好点吧。你看起来气色糟透了!”pic.twitter.com/8jfPolxExW— CSPAN (@cspan) 2026年10月29日特朗普仍计划于格林尼治标准时间周五23:00在佛罗里达州代托纳比斯的海洋中心(Ocean Center)举行集会。

President Trump: "You're sick to ask that question. You are sick…I don't feel I have to go to Kansas…I feel perfect. You are disgusting. Put yourself in shape. You look like hell!" pic.twitter.com/8jfPolxExW

与此同时,哈里斯预定在佐治亚州亚特兰大出席富尔顿县民主党(Fulton County Democratic Party)的“富尔顿向前”(Fulton Forward)晚宴并发表讲话。

— CSPAN (@cspan) October 29, 2026 Trump is still scheduled to hold a rally at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday at 23:00 GMT.

万斯此前还计划于周五在明尼苏达州圣克卢德与白宫消除欺诈工作组(White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud)共同举行记者会,但该行程已于周四被取消。目前尚未立即给出原因。

At the same time, Harris is due to address the Fulton County Democratic Party’s Fulton Forward dinner in Atlanta, Georgia. Vance had also planned a news conference with the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud in St Cloud, Minnesota, on Friday, but the visit was cancelled on Thursday. No reason was immediately given.

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