以色列选民本周以创纪录的人数涌向投票站，结果却得出了一个令人沮丧的模糊结论。该国碎片化的政党之间可能需要数周讨价还价，才能组建新的执政联盟——或者才能决定国家需要重新举行选举。
Israeli voters thronged to the polls in record numbers this week, only to produce a frustratingly murky verdict. It may take weeks of haggling among the country’s fragmented political parties to form a new governing coalition — or to decide the country needs a new election.
尽管总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡失去了议会多数席位，但以色列政治的多变格局意味着他仍可能保住职位，或许是在对立政党组成的新联合政府中。
Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority, the variable geometry of Israeli politics means he could retain his post, possibly in a new unity government between opposed parties.
美国人或许不太关心谁在耶路撒冷掌权，但他们应该关心。毕竟，正是内塔尼亚胡说服了特朗普总统加入以色列推翻伊朗伊斯兰政权的战争。该政权依然存在，但随着战争拖延，美国人正在为武器、汽油和柴油付出高昂代价。
Americans may not much care who holds power in Jerusalem, but they should. After all, it was Netanyahu who persuaded President Trump to join Israel’s war to topple Iran’s Islamist regime. The regime remains, but Americans are paying dearly for weapons, gas and diesel as the war drags on.
同样悬而未决的还有美国作为以色列安全最终保障者的历史性角色。2023年10月7日哈马斯野蛮屠杀以色列平民后，美国人不可避免地将其与9·11惨案相类比，并团结在遭受创伤的以色列人周围。但内塔尼亚胡的右翼政府挥霍了美国和国际社会的同情。对加沙的夷平、悬而未决的伊朗战争，以及政府纵容定居者在约旦河西岸的侵略和土地掠夺，已急剧加深了以色列的政治孤立。
Also hanging in the balance is America’s historic role as the ultimate guarantor of Israel’s security. After Hamas’s barbaric slaughter of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, 2023, Americans inevitably drew analogies to the 9/11 massacre and rallied around traumatized Israelis. But Netanyahu’s right-wing government squandered U.S. and international sympathy. The razing of Gaza, the unsettled Iran war and the government’s encouragement of settlers’ aggression and land grabs in the West Bank have drastically deepened Israel’s political isolation.
在欧洲尤其如此，英国外交大臣埃德·米利班德最近宣布以色列对约旦河西岸的占领非法，并威胁对定居点实施金融制裁。
That is especially true in Europe, where British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband recently declared Israel’s occupation of the West Bank illegal and threatened to impose financial sanctions against settlements.
以色列唯一承受不起失去的盟友是美国。但芝加哥全球事务委员会上月报告称，对美国持好感的态度已降至历史低点。如今首次有多数美国人（56%）支持削减或终止美国对以色列的军事援助。YouGov的一项民调发现，41%的美国人——包括62%的民主党人——现在认为以色列正在加沙实施种族灭绝。
The one ally Israel can’t afford to lose is the U.S. But the Chicago Council on Global Affairs reported last month that favorable attitudes toward Israel have sunk to historic lows. For the first time, most Americans (56 percent) now favor either cutting or ending U.S. military aid to Israel. A YouGov poll found that 41 percent of Americans — including 62 percent of Democrats — now say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
美国国内对以色列支持率的急剧下滑，主要受民主党人、独立人士和年轻人推动。MAGA共和党人和基督教福音派仍然对以色列持正面看法，尽管共和党整体的支持率已略有下降。
Cratering U.S. support for Israel is driven mainly by Democrats, independents and the young. MAGA Republicans and Christian evangelicals continue to view Israel favorably, although overall Republican support has declined modestly.
当特朗普宣布对 Netanyahu 给予“完全且彻底”的背书时，他并不代表大多数美国人。59%的选民，包括76%的民主党人，对这位以色列长期领导人表示信心不足。
When Trump announced his “Complete and Total” endorsement of Netanyahu, he wasn’t speaking for most Americans. Fifty-nine percent of voters, including 76 percent of Democrats, express little confidence in Israel’s long-serving leader.
以色列已被卷入美国部落式政治的漩涡以及特朗普人气下滑的泥潭。毫无疑问，Netanyahu 对特朗普的殷勤拉拢帮助他取得了战术上的战场胜利，但战略代价高昂：支撑美国近八十年来对以色列坚定支持的两党共识已被击碎。
Israel has been sucked into the vortex of America’s tribal politics and Trump’s slumping popularity. No doubt Netanyahu’s assiduous courtship of Trump has helped him score tactical battlefield victories, but the strategic cost is high: the shattering of the bipartisan consensus undergirding America’s staunch support for Israel for nearly eight decades.
弥合这一裂痕并非易事，因为尤其是年轻选民已对以色列心生反感。YouGov 发现，许多30岁以下的选民如今更同情巴勒斯坦人而非以色列（34%对21%），而65岁以上的美国人则大致相反。
Repairing that breach won’t be easy, because young voters especially have soured on Israel. YouGov found that many voters under 30 now sympathize more with Palestinians than Israel (34 percent versus 21 percent), whereas Americans over 65 showed roughly the reverse.
除了 Netanyahu 政府的自伤之举外，对以色列的敌意——往往滑向反犹主义——正在美国政治的边缘地带蔓延。
In addition to the Netanyahu government’s self-inflicted wounds, hostility towards Israel — often shading into antisemitism — is percolating on America’s political fringes.
在极右翼阵营，Tucker Carlson 向他的近200万 YouTube 订阅者呈现了一场由反犹分子和大屠杀修正主义者组成的低俗游行，其中包括 Nick Fuentes、Candace Owens 和 Darryl Cooper。Carlson 披着无畏探究的虚伪外衣，兜售关于犹太人控制美国政府和敌视基督徒的阴谋论。
On the extreme right, Tucker Carlson treats his nearly 2 million YouTube subscribers to a tawdry parade of antisemites and Holocaust revisionists such as Nick Fuentes, Candace Owens and Darryl Cooper. Behind a phony pose of fearless inquiry, Carlson deals in conspiracy theories about Jewish control of the U.S. government and hostility to Christians.
与此同时，左翼活动人士在美国校园里煽起了一股反以色列偏见的熊熊烈火。他们已将巴勒斯坦人纳入其交叉性万神殿，奉为种族主义、本土主义、殖民主义、资本主义、性别歧视以及其他所谓西方恶习的神圣受害者。其结果是，一种有毒的“觉醒”反犹主义爆发出来，它不容异见，并免除巴勒斯坦人对延续冲突的任何责任。
Meanwhile, left-wing activists have whipped up a bonfire of anti-Israel bigotry on U.S. campuses. They have inducted Palestinians into their intersectional pantheon of sanctified victims of racism, nativism, colonialism, capitalism, sexism and other supposedly Western vices. The result is a noxious outbreak of woke antisemitism that brooks no dissent and absolves Palestinians of any responsibility for perpetuating the conflict.
当今世界从不缺少压迫与不公。然而，民主社会主义者却异常执着于将以色列妖魔化。相比之下，他们对苏丹的族群屠杀、俄罗斯对乌克兰平民的罪恶袭击，或中国对数百万穆斯林维吾尔人的种族清洗所表现出的道德愤怒，似乎奇怪地沉寂了。
There’s no shortage of oppression and injustice in today’s world. Yet democratic socialists are preternaturally focused on villainizing Israel. Their moral outrage against Sudan’s communal carnage, Russia’s criminal attacks on Ukrainian civilians or China’s ethnic cleansing of millions of Muslim Uighurs seems strangely muted in comparison.
不幸的是，反以色列偏见也正被一些穆斯林民主党人主流化。在一场表面上纪念10月7日大屠杀的演讲中，约克市市长佐兰·马姆达尼照例谴责了哈马斯“骇人听闻”的行为，但随后却以远为更长的篇幅大谈以色列在加沙所谓的“种族灭绝”。
Unfortunately, anti-Israel prejudice is being mainstreamed by some Muslim Democrats as well. In a speech ostensibly commemorating the Oct. 7 massacre, York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s duly deplored Hamas’ “horrific” acts before dwelling a far greater length on Israel’s alleged “genocide” in Gaza.
无论下一届以色列政府形态如何，将以色列的安全与生存押注于一位政治上急剧下滑、两年后即将离任的糊涂美国总统，似乎是愚蠢的。
Whatever the shape of the next Israeli government, it seems foolish to stake Israel’s security and survival on an addled U.S. president who’s nosediving politically and will be gone in two years.
相反，一个新的执政联盟应致力于重建美国对以色列的广泛支持。这需要与主张吞并的右翼彻底决裂，并承认巴勒斯坦领导人不能被排除在关于加沙和约旦河西岸未来的决策之外。以色列新领导人还应恢复与民主党的外交关系，大多数美国犹太选民仍然依附于该党。内塔尼亚胡已表明，他是担任这一职位的错误人选。威尔·马歇尔是进步政策研究所的创始人兼所长。
Instead, a new governing coalition should work to rebuild broad American support for Israel. That will require a clean break with the annexationist right and recognition that Palestinian leaders can’t be shut out of decisions about the future of Gaza and the West Bank. New Israeli leaders also should resume diplomatic relations with the Democratic Party, to which most U.S. Jewish voters remain attached. Netanyahu has shown he’s the wrong candidate for that job. Will Marshall is founder and president of Progressive Policy Institute.