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伊朗重新考虑其自身的核武器禁令Iran reconsiders its own ban on nuclear weapons

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格林威治标准时间下午4点49分,伊朗外交部发出信号,伊朗正在重新考虑其禁止核武器的教义。

4:49pm GMT Iran is reconsidering its doctrine that bans nuclear weapons, its foreign ministry has signalled.

2003年,最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊(Ali Khamenei)颁布了一项教令,禁止生产和使用核武器。他在2月份被暗杀。尽管如此,伊斯兰共和国长期以来一直被以色列和美国指责秘密研发核武器。

Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader who was assassinated in February, issued a fatwa in 2003 banning the production and use of the weapons. Despite that, the Islamic Republic has long been accused by Israel and the US of developing them in secret.

周一,伊朗外交部发言人埃斯梅尔·巴盖伊(Esmail Baghaei)表示,由于来自美国和以色列的威胁,改变教义的问题“是一个真实存在的问题”。

On Monday, Esmail Baghaei, the foreign ministry spokesman, said the question of changing the doctrine was “a real issue” as a result of threats from the US and Israel.

他说:“对方暗杀了颁布禁止生产和使用核武器教令的人。”他坚称伊朗的核计划“一直是和平的,现在依然是”,并指责华盛顿和以色列将伊朗描绘成威胁。

He said: “The other side has assassinated the person who issued the fatwa banning the production and use of nuclear weapons.”He insisted that Iran’s nuclear programme had “always been peaceful and still is”, and blamed Washington and Israel for casting Iran as a threat.

巴盖伊表示,在“决策层面”,伊朗“仍然是《不扩散核武器条约》(NPT)的成员,并认为我们受条约义务约束”。

Mr Baghaei said that, at the “level of decision-making”, Iran was “still a member of the [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)] and consider ourselves bound by our obligations”.

美国和伊朗于1968年签署了《不扩散核武器条约》。以色列从未签署该条约。

Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, said the question of changing the doctrine was ‘a real issue’ The US and Iran signed the NPT in 1968. Israel has never signed it.

巴盖伊还重申了伊朗降级局势的条件,称除非美国海上封锁结束且伊朗的合法诉求得到落实,否则不会达成任何协议,霍尔木兹海峡也不会重新开放或得到保障。

Mr Baghaei also reiterated Iran’s conditions for de-escalation, saying no deal would be reached and the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened or secured “unless the US naval blockade ends and Iran’s legitimate demands are put into effect”.

他说,桌面上唯一的提案是德黑兰的七点计划,“准备在两天内实施”。

The only proposal on the table, he said, was Tehran’s seven-point plan, which was “ready to implement within two days”.

自美国和以色列在2月份袭击伊朗城市并暗杀该国大部分领导层以来,伊朗的政治和宗教体制内部一直在辩论其核教义。

Iran’s political and clerical establishment has debated their nuclear doctrine since the US and Israel struck Iranian cities and assassinated much of the country’s leadership in February.

多年来,伊朗的既定立场是阿里·哈梅内伊的一项教令,该教令宣布大规模杀伤性武器在伊斯兰教法下是被禁止的。他将自己的立场概括为“所有人享有核能,无人拥有核武器”,并在别处称原子弹是“危害人类的罪行”。

For years, Iran’s declared position was a fatwa by Ali Khamenei, which declared weapons of mass destruction as forbidden under Islam. He summed up his stance as “nuclear energy for all, and nuclear weapons for none”, and elsewhere called the atomic bomb “a crime against humanity”.

技术人员在2005年于一座铀转化设施的生产单元内工作 如今高层人物正公开质疑它。

Technicians work inside a uranium conversion facility producing unit in 2005 Now senior figures are openly questioning it.

德黑兰临时周五祈祷领祷人穆罕默德·贾瓦德·哈吉·阿里·阿克巴里,在上周的布道中呼吁修订该教义并转向获取武器,称这是“民族诉求”。

Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari, the interim Friday prayer leader in Tehran, used a sermon last week to call for a revision of the doctrine and a move towards acquiring a weapon, describing it as a “national demand”.

他声称——但未引用来源——民调显示70%的伊朗人支持这一变革。他还敦促专家准备提案并提交给穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊,后者在其父遇刺后接任领袖,由其作出最终决定。

He claimed, without citing a source, that polls showed 70 per cent of Iranians backed the change. He also urged experts to prepare proposals and submit them to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his father as leader after his assassination, for a final decision.

主张伊朗应进行核试验并制造核弹已逾十年的立法者艾哈迈德·纳德里表示,他认为哈梅内伊先生的立场将不同于其父。

Ahmad Naderi, a legislator who has argued for more than a decade that Iran should conduct a nuclear test and build a bomb, said he believed Mr Khamenei’s position would differ from his father’s.

纳德里说,改变路线并不意味着“烈士领袖错了”,而是“形势变了——那时我们未遭攻击,现在我们遭了”。然而,该国安全事务负责人态度更为审慎。

Changing course, Mr Naderi said, did not mean “the martyred leader was wrong”, but that “circumstances have changed – then we had not been attacked, and now we have”. However, the country’s security chief was more cautious.

最高国家安全委员会秘书、少将穆赫森·礼萨伊表示,尚未作出正式决定,但承认辩论正在进行。

Maj Gen Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the supreme national security council, said no formal decision had been taken but acknowledged the debate was live.

“如果战争再次爆发,我们要坚持同样的旧教义吗?”他问道,并补充说伊朗人在询问,为何在伊朗配合国际核查员的情况下,其核设施却遭到轰炸。

“If war breaks out again, do we want to keep the same old doctrine?” he said, adding that Iranians were asking why their nuclear facilities had been bombed despite Iran cooperating with international inspectors.

礼萨伊少将说,外交接触已持续一个多月,华盛顿施压要求会谈,德黑兰拒绝,直到其七项条件得到满足。

Maj Gen Rezaei said diplomacy had been under way for more than a month, with Washington pressing for talks that Tehran had refused until its seven conditions were met.

他证实收到美国副总统万斯的信函,尚未回复,但表示其语气“完全变了”,这是“一个非常好的迹象”。并非所有伊朗人都认为这场运动符合国家利益。

He confirmed receiving a letter from JD Vance, the US vice-president, which he had not yet answered, but said its tone had “completely changed”, which was “a very good sign”. Not everyone in Iran views the campaign as serving the country’s interests.

政治分析人士卡德尔·巴斯塔尼警告称,突然出现的要求制造核弹的合唱是“一种情绪化的做法”,这正中敌人下怀,有助于将伊朗“安全化”,并为未来的对抗提供理由。

Qader Bastani, a political analyst, warned that the sudden chorus demanding a bomb was “an emotional approach” that played into the enemy’s hands, helping to “securitise” Iran and justify a future confrontation.

他说:“伊朗的安全不应建立在别人对伊朗的恐惧之上。”他主张德黑兰应转而强调其对《不扩散核武器条约》的承诺、可核查的担保措施以及拟议中的地区核联合体。

“The security of Iran should not be built on others’ fear of Iran,” he said, arguing that Tehran should instead stress its NPT commitment, verifiable guarantees and a proposed regional nuclear consortium.

另一位伊朗分析人士基奥马尔斯·阿什塔里安阐述了推动这场辩论的威慑逻辑,称核弹将服务于“核威慑,而非常规战争威慑”——即一种避免遭受核武器攻击的武器,而非预防普通冲突的武器——同时警告称,这可能招致惩罚性制裁以及中俄的反对。

Kiomars Ashtarian, another Iranian analyst, laid out the deterrence logic driving the debate, saying that a bomb would serve “nuclear deterrence, not deterrence from conventional war” – a weapon to avoid being attacked with nuclear weapons rather than to prevent ordinary conflict – while warning that it could invite punishing sanctions and opposition from China and Russia.

他认为,美国或以色列对伊朗使用核武器的前景“已不再牵强附会”——这一恐惧因塔克·卡尔森而重新获得关注。

He argued that the prospect of the US or Israel using a nuclear weapon against Iran was “no longer far-fetched” – a fear given fresh currency by Tucker Carlson.

这位美国广播员在一条广泛传播的帖子中声称,特朗普政府“在”本雅明·内塔尼亚胡“的压力下”,可能“距离对伊朗发动核打击仅剩几天”。

The American broadcaster claimed in a widely shared post that the Trump administration, “under pressure from” Benjamin Netanyahu, could be “within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran”.

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