
民主党已锁定参议院控制权,这对共和党多数派而言是一次令人震惊的崩盘——共和党在中期选举伊始本拥有看似坚不可摧的保守州“红墙”。
The News Democrats have secured control of the Senate, a shocking collapse for a Republican majority that started the midterms with what looked like an impregnable red wall of conservative states.
民主党几乎毫无瑕疵,共和党鲜有亮点。共和党丢失了其在缅因州、俄亥俄州、得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、爱荷华州、南卡罗来纳州和北卡罗来纳州持有的席位;未能在新罕布什尔州和佐治亚州翻盘;如今正为进一步失利做准备,这可能阻碍其在2028年夺回参议院的努力——届时选举版图将给两党都提供翻盘机会。
There were almost no blemishes for Democrats and few bright spots for Republicans. The GOP lost seats it held in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, South Carolina, and North Carolina; failed to flip seats in New Hampshire and Georgia; and is now bracing for further losses that could hamper its effort to retake the Senate in 2028, when the map gives both parties pickup opportunities.
除北卡罗来纳州外,共和党失守的席位均位于唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年大选中大胜的州份。共和党原本最多只能承受失去三个席位;目前正朝着在所有摇摆席位全军覆没的方向发展。缅因州和阿拉斯加州的参议员席位也均面临易手风险。
Other than North Carolina, the GOP-held losses are in states President Donald Trump won handily in 2024. Republicans could afford to lose up to three seats; they’re on track to lose all of their tossup races. Senate seats in Maine and Alaska are also both at risk of flipping.
“这是一场毁灭性的代际惨败,”一位资深共和党策略师对Semafor表示,“我们将面临一场全面的共和党内战。”
“This is a generational wipeout,” one senior Republican strategist told Semafor. “We are going to have a full-on GOP civil war.”
参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默表示,他的党派通过在众多艰难州份获胜,实现了“参议院版图的代际重塑”。在大力赞扬民主党候选人素质后,他说美国选民已将共和党的“红墙”化为“一堆砖块”。“共和党做出了选择,追随特朗普跳下悬崖。有时他谈论一些荒谬的无关之事,但大多时候,他推行的政策推高了他们在电力、医疗、商品上的成本,”舒默在午夜新闻发布会上对记者说。
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said his party had pulled off a “generational remake of the Senate map” by winning so many tough states. After touting Democrats’ candidate qualify, he said Americans had reduced the GOP’s red wall to a “pile of bricks.”“Republicans made a choice and followed Trump over the cliff. Some of the time he talked about extraneous things that were ridiculous, but much of the time, he implemented things that raised their costs on electricity, on healthcare, on goods,” Schumer told reporters at a midnight press conference.
他表示听到了特朗普称将与民主党主导的国会合作的言论,但誓言民主党“将不论有无总统配合,都为美国人民兑现承诺”。周二晚间,民主党以佐治亚州现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫和北卡罗来纳州前州长罗伊·库珀两场迅速、果断的参议院胜利拉开序幕,这为他们深入红色腹地、投入数千万美元竞选资金注入了动力。
He said he heard Trump’s remarks saying he’d work with a Democratic Congress but vowed his party is “going to deliver for the people of America with or without the president.”Democrats started Tuesday night with two quick, decisive Senate victories — by Georgia incumbent Jon Ossoff and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper — that fueled their drive deeper into red territory, to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.
资金调配 该党的主要参议院超级政治行动委员会(超级竞选委员会)近几周在上述两个南方州撤下了数周的广告,据共享给 Semafor 的信息显示,此举在北卡罗来纳州节省了 2200 万美元,在佐治亚州节省了 1100 万美元。
Moving Money Around The party’s top Senate super PAC pulled down several weeks’ worth of ads in those two Southern states in recent weeks, per information shared with Semafor, saving $22 million in North Carolina and $11 million in Georgia.
民主党参议院竞选委员会(DSCC)在冲刺阶段也在两州取消了一些广告购买,这些决定获得了回报,因为该党在周二晚间早早赢下了这两个席位。在南卡罗来纳州取得惊人胜利后,民主党人比一些人预期的更早对夺取多数席位感到乐观。
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also scrapped some ad buys in both states down the stretch, decisions that paid off as the party won both seats early on Tuesday night. Democrats felt optimistic about taking the majority earlier in the night than some had expected after the shocking win in South Carolina.
他们决定从佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州抽调资金,帮助主要民主党团体批准了在密西西比州、南卡罗来纳州和堪萨斯州等州的新参议院支出。这也帮助该党在激战州密歇根州和缅因州巩固了候选人,因为共和党资金雄厚的参议院领导基金(Senate Leadership Fund)超级竞选委员会投入了惊人的巨资。
Their decision to pull cash out of Georgia and North Carolina helped top Democratic groups approve new Senate spending in states like Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kansas. It also helped the party shore up candidates in the battleground states of Michigan and Maine as Republicans’ deep-pocketed Senate Leadership Fund super PAC poured in astounding sums.
“库珀和奥索夫竞选团队的实力使参议院多数党竞选委员会(Senate Majority PAC)能够将最初的投资重新投入到我们扩大后的激战州版图中。当共和党向竞选注资时,这是一个改变游戏规则的因素,”参议院多数党竞选委员会发言人劳伦·弗伦奇(Lauren French)表示。
“The strength of the Cooper and Ossoff campaigns allowed Senate Majority PAC to re-invest our initial investments into our expanded battleground map. That is a game-changer when Republicans poured money into races,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC.
据一位知情人士透露,参议院多数党竞选委员会除在传统激战州投入巨资外,还在堪萨斯州大量投放,而民主党参议院竞选委员会在南卡罗来纳州参议院竞选中后期投入了 50 万美元。此前 Semafor 报道,该委员会已在密西西比州投入 50 万美元。
Senate Majority PAC spent heavily in Kansas on top of its spending in traditional battlegrounds, while the DSCC put in $500,000 in South Carolina’s Senate race late, according to a person familiar with the buy. That spending followed $500,000 in Mississippi previously reported by Semafor.
这仅得益于奥索夫和库珀的强劲实力,两人都筹集了巨额资金,并在数周前就击退了对手。库珀截至 10 月中旬筹集了 4900 多万美元,奥索夫筹集了 1 亿多美元。
That was only possible due to the strength of Ossoff and Cooper, who both raised gobs of money and put away their opponents weeks ago. Cooper raised more than $49 million through mid-October, and Ossoff raised more than $100 million.
库珀和奥索夫均以两位数的显著优势战胜了各自对手、众议员迈克·柯林斯(Mike Collins)和迈克尔·沃特利(Michael Whatley)。
Cooper and Ossoff are both notching considerable, double-digit victories over their respective opponents, Rep. Mike Collins and Michael Whatley.
伯吉斯观点 在参议院竞选中,候选人素质至关重要。它会影响该党名单上的所有其他候选人。
Burgess’s view In Senate races, candidate quality matters. And it can affect all of the other candidates on a party’s slate.
奥索夫和库珀的竞选活动既平淡又高效,使得民主党领导层得以将精力集中到其他地方。获委任的参议员、南卡罗来纳州的达琳·格雷厄姆和俄亥俄州的乔恩·赫斯特德,分别在面对安妮·安德鲁斯和前参议员谢罗德·布朗时表现疲软。而特朗普决定在得克萨斯州支持肯·帕克斯顿,结果却给共和党带来了惨痛的教训。
Ossoff and Cooper ran such boringly effective campaigns that it allowed Democratic leaders to concentrate their efforts elsewhere. Appointed Sens. Darline Graham of South Carolina and Jon Husted of Ohio proved weak against Annie Andrews and former Sen. Sherrod Brown. And Trump’s decision to back Ken Paxton in Texas blew up spectacularly for Republicans.
据我们最早报道,知名共和党人早在9月就已准备将关注重心从佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州转移开。
Notable Republicans were preparing to move their focus away from Georgia and North Carolina as early as September, as we first reported.