
唐纳德·特朗普总统曾告诉选民,要他们把今年的中期选举当作对他本人的公投。选民们照做了。结果他们以压倒性的态度同时否定了他推行的政策和共和党。NBC新闻预测,民主党已拿下国会的全面控制权,选民对特朗普的议程予以了强有力的否定,同时明确传达出一个信息:国会对特朗普政府的制衡做得还不够,需要在生活成本可负担性和腐败问题上采取更多行动。
President Donald Trump told voters to pretend he was on the ballot in this year’s midterm elections. They did. And they resoundingly rejected both his policies and his Republican Party. Democrats have captured full control of Congress, NBC News projects, with voters delivering a forceful repudiation of Trump’s agenda, coupled with a clear-cut message that Congress has not done enough to provide checks on his administration and needs to do more to address affordability and corruption.
民主党在参议院获胜之前,已在众议院取得迅速而决定性的胜利,他们有望在众议院拥有近二十年来最大的多数优势。民主党在艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州翻转了五个共和党占据的席位——其中得克萨斯州是他们长期以来梦寐以求想要翻蓝的州。在其中几个州,特朗普亲自挑选了提名人,有时甚至不顾本党成员的反对,这些人担心这些候选人在大选中会表现疲弱。
Democrats’ victory in the Senate comes after a swift and decisive win in the House, where Democrats are set to have what could be their largest majority in nearly two decades. Democrats flipped five Republican-held seats in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas — a state they’ve long dreamed of turning blue. In a number of those states, Trump handpicked the nominees, sometimes over the objections of members of his own party who were concerned that they would be weak in the general election.
对共和党来说,这将是一个艰难之夜的早期预警信号出现在南卡罗来纳州——一个连许多民主党人都认为遥不可及的州——该州早早失守。民主党深入MAGA阵营的核心地带,斩获远超他们在2018年中期选举、即特朗普第一个任期时所取得的成绩。在NBC新闻出口民调中接受调查的中期选举选民里,有43%表示,他们这样投票的原因之一是表达对特朗普的反对,而特朗普的支持率低于近二十年来任何一位总统在选举日的水平。
An early warning sign that it would be a tough night for Republicans came when South Carolina — a state even many Democrats thought was out of reach — fell early. Democrats made incursions deep into the heart of MAGA country, with gains far beyond what they were able to achieve in the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term. Forty-three percent of midterm voters surveyed in the NBC News Exit Poll said one of the reasons they voted the way they did was to express opposition to Trump, whose job approval rating is lower than that of any president on Election Day in nearly two decades.
71%的选民——包括41%的共和党人——还表示,国会对特朗普的监督不够。腐败、生活成本可负担性、移民和伊朗战争也都是关键议题。选举结果如此惨淡,以至于特朗普周二晚间迅速与之撇清关系。
Seventy-one percent of voters — including 41% of Republicans — also said there is not enough congressional oversight of Trump. Corruption, affordability, immigration and the war in Iran were all key issues, as well. The results were so bleak that Trump quickly ran away from them Tuesday evening.
特朗普在社交媒体上表示,事实上他并未出现在选票上,这正是共和党失利的原因:“我没有上榜,如果上了,我们本可以大获全胜!”民主党夺权将产生广泛影响。随着两院均由民主党掌控,特朗普政府将不得不面对此前在共和党顺从的国会手中回避的制衡和调查。选举结果可能影响最高法院的组成、2028年总统竞选的走向以及特朗普任期后半段立法计划的命运。
Trump said on social media that, in fact, he was not on the ballot, and that’s why Republicans lost: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”The Democratic takeover will reverberate widely. With majorities in both chambers, the Trump administration will now have to contend with checks and investigations it avoided with a compliant Congress in Republican hands. The election results could influence the makeup of the Supreme Court, the arc of the 2028 presidential race and the fate of Trump’s legislative plans in the back half of his term.
但这也将引发与特朗普的史诗级对决,考验过去两个世纪经受战争和内乱仍保持完整的宪法权力分配。拥有新获得的多数席位,民主党议员将获得一套监督权力,用以调查他们认为逃脱问责的特朗普政府。作为回报,特朗普已构建了一个以无与伦比的行政权力为愿景的总统职位。双方似乎都不愿妥协,这意味着未来两年可能出现自水门事件以来前所未有的立法与行政部门冲突。
But it also sets up an epic showdown with Trump that will test the constitutional power-sharing arrangement that has weathered war and civil strife over the past two centuries — but survived intact. With their newly minted majority, Democratic lawmakers will acquire an arsenal of oversight powers they’ll use to investigate a Trump administration they contend has escaped accountability. Trump, in turn, has built a presidency rooted in a vision of unrivaled executive power. Neither side seems in a mood to compromise, meaning the next two years could bring legislative and executive branch clashes unlike anything since the Watergate era.
“我们要做的就是降低成本,根除所有猖狂的腐败,结束混乱。简单明了,”纽约州参议员、参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默在选举前接受NBC新闻提问时表示,若其党派获胜,他的首要任务就是如此。
“What we’re going to do is lower costs, end all this rampant corruption and end the chaos. Plain and simple,” Chuck Schumer of New York, the Senate’s Democratic leader, said before the election in response to a question from NBC News about his priorities if his party won.
在中期选举季伊始,民主党取得压倒性胜利几乎让人难以想象。尽管选区地图对民主党不利,主要竞争地区遍布特朗普三次总统竞选均获胜的红州,民主党仍然获胜。自2006年以来,少数党首次在同一夜翻转两院控制权。当时的总统乔治·W·布什……布什曾因伊拉克战争面临选民强烈反弹,他令人难忘地感叹选举结果是“一场重击”。
Democrats’ sweeping victory looked inconceivable when the midterm campaign season kicked off. The party prevailed despite an unfavorable map in which the major battlegrounds ran through red states that Trump won in all three of his presidential bids. Not since 2006 has the minority party flipped control of both chambers on a single night. Then-President George W. Bush, facing a voter backlash over the Iraq War, memorably lamented that the outcome was “a thumping.”
特朗普则试图通过将自己置于核心位置来动员其核心选民,保住共和党在众议院和参议院的微弱多数。他在竞选最后一个月保持了密集的竞选日程,但他和其政党始终受到他低支持率的困扰,以及选民对经济的明显不满。特朗普试图将物价上涨归咎于前任乔·拜登,但选民似乎并不买账。特朗普和以色列领导人于2月底发动伊朗战争后,汽油价格飙升,美国人不认可特朗普对这场冲突的处理方式,这又成为拖累共和党候选人的一个因素。
Trump sought to mobilize his core voters and preserve the GOP’s narrow majority in the House and the Senate by putting himself front and center. He kept up a packed campaign schedule in the final month of the campaign, but he and his party were dogged by his low job approval ratings, along with pronounced voter frustration with the economy. Trump sought to blame his predecessor, Joe Biden, for rising prices, but voters didn’t seem to buy the argument. Gas prices spiked after Trump and Israeli leaders launched the Iran war in late February, and Americans disliked Trump’s handling of the conflict, creating another drag on Republican candidacies.
选举结果很可能创造历史,众议院少数党领袖、纽约州民主党人哈基姆·杰弗里斯即将成为美国首位黑人众议院议长。民主党人预计将在11月16日当周举行党内领导层选举,届时杰弗里斯将成为其政党的议长候选人。随后,在1月3日,他必须赢得218票——即全体众议员中的简单多数——才能正式获得议长木槌,成为总统继任顺序中的第二人。
The election results are apt to make history, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., on the cusp of becoming the country’s first Black House speaker. Democrats are expected to hold their internal leadership elections the week of Nov. 16, when Jeffries will become his party’s nominee for speaker. Then, on Jan. 3, he must win 218 votes — a simple majority of all House members — to formally win the speaker’s gavel and become second in the line of presidential succession.
舒默此前曾担任四年参议院多数党领袖,在超出预期并带领其政党走出失势境地后,预计将再次重返这一最高职位。整个选举季,民主党人一直被看好赢得众议院;他们只需净翻转三个共和党持有的席位即可实现这一目标,而从历史上看,总统所属政党在中期选举中平均会失去数十个席位。但随着竞选展开,民主党人对赢得参议院也越来越乐观。
Schumer, who previously served four years as Senate majority leader, is expected to return to the top job once again after he exceeded expectations and led his party back from exile. Democrats had been favored to win the House all season; they needed to flip a net of just three GOP-held seats to do so, and historically, the president’s party loses dozens of seats on average during midterm elections. But as the campaign unfolded, Democrats grew more bullish about winning the Senate, as well.
原因之一是少数族裔选票。拉丁裔选民曾在2024年帮助推动特朗普的政治回归,但在这个选举周期中,他们转而远离他,理由是物价高企和他的移民打击政策。
One reason was the minority vote. Latino voters helped propel Trump’s political comeback in 2024, but they turned away from him this cycle, citing high prices and his immigration crackdown.
美国全国广播公司新闻台周日公布的一项民调显示,民主党在拉丁裔选民中领先27个百分点,这与2024年大选形成鲜明对比——当时特朗普在这一群体中仅落后7个百分点。这一结果还可能对最高法院产生影响。大选前,多位参议院民主党人曾质疑,如果特朗普在其最后两年任期内出现最高法院空缺,他们是否会确认特朗普提名的任何人选。
An NBC News poll released Sunday showed that Democrats enjoyed a 27-point lead among Latino voters, a marked contrast from the election in 2024, when Trump lost by only 7 points in the demographic. The outcome could also leave an imprint on the Supreme Court. Before the election, multiple Senate Democrats cast doubt on whether they would confirm any Trump nominee to a vacancy on the Supreme Court if one were to arise in his final two years.
如今民主党全面掌控参议院,有能力阻止特朗普提出的人选。“嗯,鉴于特朗普提名人的过往记录,我认为我们支持本届政府提名的可能性微乎其微,”康涅狄格州民主党参议员、司法委员会成员理查德·布卢门撒尔在大选前接受美国全国广播公司新闻台采访时说。“因为我们看过这部电影,我们知道结局是什么——一个穿着法袍的政客,在大多数重大问题上听从特朗普的命令。”
With full control of the Senate, Democrats are positioned to block nominees Trump puts forward. “Well, given the history of Trump nominees, I think it is slim to none that we would support a nominee from this administration,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a member of the Judiciary Committee, told NBC News in an interview before the elections. “Because we’ve seen this movie, we know how it ends, which is a politician in robes who is following Trump’s orders on most major questions.”
展望未来,选举结果可能重塑2028年共和党总统提名的争夺。共和党 presumptive 领跑者是副总统JD·万斯。但如果这一结果等同于对特朗普及其政治品牌的否定,万斯可能会发现自己没有通往提名的顺畅通途。作为少数党,民主党无权发出传票和安排监督听证会。这一切都将在明年1月新一届国会召开时改变。民主党议员已经发出信号,他们将寻求约束特朗普在支出和发动战争方面的权力——此前共和党主导的国会顺从配合,几乎没有对特朗普形成制约。
Looking ahead, the election results could recast the fight for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. The presumed GOP front-runner is Vice President JD Vance. But if the outcome amounts to a rejection of Trump and his brand of politics, Vance may find that he has no glide path to the nomination. As the minority party, Democrats lacked the power to issue subpoenas and schedule oversight hearings. That all changes come January, when the new Congress convenes. Democratic lawmakers are already signaling that they will look to rein in the spending and war-making powers Trump has wielded with little pushback from a compliant Republican-led Congress.
众议院民主党人誓言要对特朗普的家族、商业往来及其政府展开积极监督,包括移民和海关执法局与国土安全部的移民打击行动,以及特朗普在白宫和华盛顿地区其他地标建筑上钟爱的翻修工程。站在调查最前沿的是众议员们。
House Democrats have vowed to carry out aggressive oversight of Trump’s family, business dealings and administration, including the ICE and Homeland Security immigration crackdown and Trump’s pet renovation projects at the White House and other Washington-area landmarks. At the tip of the spear of the investigations are Reps.
加州的罗伯特·加西亚是监督委员会的首席民主党议员,马里兰州的杰米·拉斯金是司法委员会的首席民主党议员。加西亚概述了他的调查策略,重点关注他所称的“特朗普家族腐败”,包括特朗普自2024年竞选以来财富增长了数十亿美元,以及杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的罪行和特朗普的移民打压。司法委员会的民主党议员表示,他们还有一长串调查目标,其中包括对“富有罪犯和MAGA忠诚者”的特赦,以及外国政府通过礼物和付款向特朗普家族的加密帝国“买通影响”。
Robert Garcia of California, the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee, and Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee. Garcia has outlined his investigation strategy, focusing on what he calls “Trump family corruption,” including how Trump’s fortune has grown by billions of dollars since his 2024 campaign, as well as Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes and Trump’s immigration crackdown. Judiciary Committee Democrats said they also have a long list of investigative targets that includes pardons for “wealthy criminals and MAGA loyalists,” and foreign governments’ “buying influence” through gifts and payments to the Trump family’s crypto empire.
杰弗里斯表示,民主党并不专注于弹劾特朗普,但也没有排除这种可能。特朗普在第一任期内被弹劾两次,但均被参议院宣告无罪。“生活成本过高,唐纳德·特朗普——以及他那些共和党阿谀奉承的国会议员——实际上决定对此不采取任何行动,因为他们中的许多人只专注于为自己、家人、朋友和捐助者致富。腐败是有代价的,”杰弗里斯在选举前对记者说。
Jeffries has said that Democrats aren’t focused on impeaching Trump but that they also haven’t ruled it out. Trump was impeached twice during his first term but acquitted both times by the Senate. “The cost of living is way too high, and Donald Trump — along with his Republican sycophantic members of Congress — have actually decided not to do anything about it because so many of them are so focused on enriching themselves, their family members, their friends and their donors. There is a cost to corruption,” Jeffries told reporters before the election.
“这些都是我们必须从第一天起就彻底调查的事项,以兑现我们对追究骗子责任的承诺,”他说。鉴于选举结果,共和党人可能会在他们于1月3日正式交出众议院控制权前的留任期间,推动其立法议程的部分内容。他们可能会再通过一项党派“和解”法案,以推进特朗普的支出和税收优先事项,并在2027年期限前提高债务上限。
“These are all things that are going to need to be thoroughly investigated as part of our pledge to hold the crooks accountable, beginning on day one,” he said. Given the election results, Republicans may be motivated to usher in pieces of their legislative agenda during the lame-duck session before they officially relinquish control of the House on Jan. 3. They could include another party-line “reconciliation” bill to advance Trump’s spending and tax priorities, along with a debt ceiling increase before a 2027 deadline.
参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩(南达科他州共和党)的政治前景尚不明朗。他需要在一次闭门投票中获得参议院共和党议员多数支持,才能继续担任少数党领袖。
The political future of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is unknown. He would need a majority of the Senate GOP caucus in a closed-ballot election to carry on as minority leader.
但他与特朗普的关系时好时坏,特朗普曾因他未能废除阻挠议事以通过《拯救美国法案》(该法案将彻底改革美国选举法律)而向他发泄不满。另一个悬念是众议长迈克·约翰逊(共和党-路易斯安那州)的去留,他过去三年一直掌管众议院。他可以留任少数党领袖,但面对全面失利,一些普通共和党议员可能会要求更换领导层。
But he has had an up-and-down relationship with Trump, who has vented frustration with him for failing to eliminate the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act, which would overhaul the country’s election laws. Another mystery is the fate of Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who has run the House for the past three years. He could stay on as minority leader, but in the face of the defeat across the board, some rank-and-file Republicans are likely to demand new leadership.