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美国媒体预测:民主党有望赢得美国众议院多数控制权Democrats projected to win majority control of US House, US media project

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2026年11月3日,美国华盛顿特区,人们聚集在肖氏酒馆观看美国中期选举和地方选举的计票结果,并对选举结果作出反应,认为民主党可能赢得众议院的控制权。路透社/丹尼尔·豪尔People react to election returns, suggesting Democrats could win control of the House of Representatives, at Shaw's Tavern, where they gather to watch the results during the US midterm and local elections in Washington, DC, US, November 3, 2026. REUTERS/Daniel Heuer

民主党在南卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州的参议院选举中取得惊人胜利,攻克共和党铁票仓,在数千万选民对唐纳德·特朗普总统发出严厉谴责之际,民主党已逼近参议院多数党地位。

Democrats scored stunning victories in the South Carolina, Texas and Ohio Senate races, seizing Republican strongholds and moving to the verge of winning a Senate majority as tens of millions of voters delivered a scathing rebuke to President Donald Trump.

民主党也有望夺回美国众议院控制权,已在肯塔基州、新泽西州和北卡罗来纳州等州翻转至少八个共和党席位,甚至在稳固的保守派选区也展现出强劲实力。

Democrats were also on track to take control of the US House of Representatives after flipping at least eight Republican seats in states including Kentucky, New Jersey and North Carolina and showing strength even in solidly conservative districts.

在俄亥俄州,民主党人谢罗德·布朗击败共和党现任参议员乔恩·休斯特,将重返参议院;而在得克萨斯州,民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科顶住外部资金狂轰滥炸,击败了深陷丑闻的共和党州检察长肯·帕克斯顿。就在两年前,俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州均以两位数优势支持特朗普。

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown will return to the Senate after defeating Republican incumbent Jon Husted, while Texas Democratic state Representative James Talarico withstood a barrage of outside spending to defeat scandal-plagued Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Both Ohio and Texas voted for Trump by a double-digit margin just two years ago.

在南卡罗来纳州,特朗普在2024年以近18个百分点的优势拿下该州,但儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯战胜了共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆,后者是在其兄、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆去世后获任命继任该席位的。

In South Carolina, a state that Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024, pediatrician Annie Andrews triumphed over Republican Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham.

尽管帕克斯顿和格雷厄姆均存在明显劣势,特朗普仍在初选阶段力挺他们而非更有经验的候选人。帕克斯顿长期处于争议漩涡中心,包括2023年遭弹劾及证券欺诈指控;格雷厄姆承认缺乏经验也招致负面报道。

Trump elevated Paxton and Graham ahead of more established candidates despite clear liabilities. Paxton has been at the center of a litany of controversies, including his 2023 impeachment and securities fraud charges, while Graham's admitted inexperience drew negative headlines.

作为大选冲刺阶段超过二十场集会拉票行动的一部分,特朗普为帕克斯顿、格雷厄姆和休斯特大力助选,并反复告诉支持者“假装我在选票上”,以此激发基本盘热情。

Trump campaigned heavily for Paxton, Graham and Husted as part of a late election blitz that included more than two dozen rallies, and the president told his supporters repeatedly to "pretend I'm on the ballot" in an effort to fire up his base.

周二晚间,随着共和党面临失去国会两院多数席位的局势日益明朗,特朗普在社交媒体上写道:“我并不在选票上,如果我在,我们会大获全胜!感谢你们对此事的关注。” 这股民主党浪潮凸显了选民对特朗普经济管理以及他在二月发动对伊朗战争的深深挫败感,后者导致汽油价格大幅飙升。在一项又一项民调中,选民都表达了对生活成本的焦虑,以及对特朗普处理该问题方式的愤怒。

On Tuesday night, as it grew clear Republicans were in danger of losing their congressional majorities, Trump wrote on social media, "I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter." The Democratic wave underscored voters' deep frustration with Trump's stewardship of the economy and his decision to launch a war against Iran in February, which drove gas prices up sharply. In poll after poll, voters expressed anxiety about the cost of living and anger at the way Trump has handled the issue.

随着罗伊·库珀在北卡罗来纳州参议员竞选中获胜,民主党已翻转了夺取参议院多数席位所需的四个席位,前提是他们守住密歇根州和明尼苏达州现有的席位。

Along with Roy Cooper's win in North Carolina's Senate race, Democrats have flipped the four seats they need to capture a Senate majority, as long as they hold their own seats in Michigan and Minnesota.

民主党还守住了佐治亚州和新罕布什尔州的参议院席位,这两场竞选一度被视为有竞争力,但随着特朗普支持率下降,共和党已无望赢得这两个席位。

Democrats also retained Senate seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, both races that were once considered competitive but moved out of reach for Republicans amid Trump's declining approval ratings.

对特朗普的谴责,获胜者称:“在压倒性且决定性的胜利中,美国人民谴责了名为唐纳德·J·特朗普总统的堕落、腐败和无能,”现任民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫在胜利派对上对支持者说道,他是佐治亚州的预计获胜者。

A REBUKE TO TRUMP, WINNER SAYS "In sweeping and decisive victories, the American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption and incompetence of the man named President Donald J. Trump," incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, the projected winner in Georgia, told supporters at a victory party.

在佛罗里达州,共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪击退了民主党人安吉·尼克松的挑战,但根据路透社和《今日美国》汇编的计票数据,她仅领先约3个百分点,而特朗普在2024年曾以13个百分点的优势赢下该州,这进一步证明即使是稳固的共和党州也在大幅向民主党倾斜。

In Florida, Republican Senator Ashley Moody fended off Democrat Angie Nixon but was ahead by only about 3 percentage points in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, according to a vote count compiled by Reuters and USA Today, further evidence that even solidly Republican states were shifting dramatically toward Democrats.

民主党守住了佛罗里达州的三个众议院选区,这些选区今年早些时候曾被共和党议员重新划分,且所有选区在之前的选举中都至少以9个百分点的优势支持特朗普。

Democrats held onto three House districts in Florida that Republican lawmakers had redrawn earlier this year, all of which backed Trump by at least 9 percentage points.

据SSRS受包括主要电视网和美联社在内的美国媒体联盟委托进行的出口民调,全国一半选民表示,他们将2026年中期选举视为惩罚总统的机会,四分之三选民称对国家发展方向感到“愤怒”或“不满”。

According to exit polls conducted by SSRS on behalf of a consortium of US media outlets including major television networks and the Associated Press, half of voters nationwide said they saw the 2026 midterm elections as an opportunity to rebuke the president, and three-quarters said they are "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the way the country is headed.

此外,接受调查的70%选民表示,希望国会对总统提供更多制衡。

In addition, 70 per cent of voters surveyed said they want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the president.

特朗普部署选举监督员 法律观察人士和民主党人警告称,长期虚假声称美国大选被操纵的特朗普,如果共和党失利,可能会试图质疑周二的选举结果。

TRUMP DEPLOYS ELECTION MONITORS Legal observers and Democrats have warned that Trump, who has long falsely claimed that US elections are rigged, may attempt to challenge Tuesday's results if Republicans lose.

美国司法部表示,已向全美50个州部署了1000名选举监督员和观察员,称这是历史上最大规模的选举日监督行动。

The US Justice Department said it had deployed 1,000 election monitors and observers to all 50 states in what it called the largest Election Day monitoring effort in history.

民主党批评该计划可能构成选民恐吓。路透社分析发现,在司法部列出的约三分之二辖区,选民在2024年总统大选中支持民主党人卡马拉·哈里斯而非特朗普。

Democrats criticised the plan as potential voter intimidation. In roughly two-thirds of the jurisdictions the department listed, voters supported Democrat Kamala Harris over Trump in the 2024 presidential election, a Reuters analysis found.

多个州的选举官员报告称,监督工作未出现问题。新墨西哥州州务卿办公室表示,曾接到报告称联邦监督员在一个县提出“非同寻常的问题”,司法部保证会处理该行为。

Election officials in several states reported no issues with the monitoring effort. New Mexico's secretary of state's office said it had received reports of federal monitors asking "unusual questions" in one county and that the Justice Department offered assurances that the conduct would be addressed.

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