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波兰宪政危机令央行行长处境岌岌可危Poland’s Constitutional Crisis Has Central Bank Chief on Ropes

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亚当·格拉平斯基 摄影师:西拉猜·阿伦鲁格斯蒂柴/彭博社Adam Glapinski Photographer: Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Bloomberg

波兰的政治僵局将在决策者于周三召开会议制定利率之际,引发外界对央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基前途的新疑虑。

The political standoff in Poland is set to raise fresh doubts about the future of central bank Governor Adam Glapinski when policymakers meet to set interest rates on Wednesday.

议员们预计将于本月晚些时候就格拉平斯基涉嫌在2023年大选前进行政治干预、是否应将其送上法庭进行表决,这可能导致他被停职。格拉平斯基否认有任何不当行为,并对议会有权停止其职务提出异议,他援引了最高法院的一项裁决,但该裁决受到执政联盟的质疑。

Lawmakers are expected to vote later this month on whether to put the governor on trial for alleged political meddling before the 2023 election, which could lead to his suspension from office. Glapinski has denied any wrongdoing as he disputes the parliament’s right to suspend him, citing a top court decision contested by the ruling coalition.

此次表决将开启这场纷争的新篇章,本周兹罗提兑欧元汇率已跌至三年低点。总理唐纳德·图斯克周五调派防暴警察前往宪法法庭,此前该法庭院长及其副手被停职,图斯克试图扭转前民族主义政府的权力攫取。

The vote would open a new chapter in the feud that sent the zloty to a three-year low against the euro this week. Prime Minister Donald Tusk deployed riot police to the Constitutional Tribunal on Friday following a suspension of its chief justice and his deputy, seeking to reverse a power grab by the previous nationalist administration.

这位波兰资深领导人正在进行一场豪赌,即便欧盟执行机构目前在冲突中站在政府一边,但这场冲突已将图斯克与包括总统卡罗尔·纳夫罗茨基在内的政治对手置于对立面。

Poland’s veteran leader is taking a big gamble, even as the European Union’s executive arm has for now sided with the government in the conflict, which has pitted Tusk against his political rivals including President Karol Nawrocki.

政府正在运行欧盟最宽松的预算赤字之一,而与总统长期的争斗几乎使其立法议程瘫痪,并导致波兰十年来首次信用评级被下调。

The government is running one of the EU’s widest budget deficits while the long-running feud with the president has all but gutted its legislative agenda and contributed to Poland’s first credit rating downgrade in a decade.

“政治冲突正蔓延至关键机构,恰逢财政和评级环境恶化之际,”德意志商业银行高级经济学家塔塔·戈斯表示,“兹罗提大幅波动的风险可能正在上升。”图斯克周二晚与纳夫罗茨基会面后语气缓和,告诉记者他准备本周与总统进行一对一会谈,以化解宪法法庭层面的危机。

“Political conflict is spreading across key institutions just as the fiscal and rating backdrop is deteriorating,” said Tatha Ghose, a senior economist at Commerzbank AG. “The risk of a sharper zloty move may be mounting.”Tusk struck a conciliatory tone after meeting Nawrocki late on Tuesday, telling reporters he’s ready to talk to the president one-on-one this week in an effort to resolve the crisis at the top court.

政府周二也退了一步,图斯克批准了央行管理委员会的任命,实际上终结了另一场本可能瘫痪该机构应急响应能力的争端。

The government also took a step back on Tuesday when Tusk signed off on the appointments to the central bank’s management board, effectively ending a separate dispute that threatened to cripple the institution’s ability to respond in an emergency.

但政府发言人明确表示,这一决定与议会针对格拉平斯基的决定无关。目前尚不清楚四党执政联盟是否会共同支持将行长送审的动议。

But the government’s spokesman made it clear that the decision was unrelated to the parliament’s decision about Glapinski. It’s not clear whether the four-way ruling coalition would jointly support the motion to put the governor on trial.

波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk

据一位知情人士透露,财政部长安杰伊·多曼斯基说服图斯克批准了央行董事会的任命。该人士称,多曼斯基认为,虽然行长应当被追究责任,但波兰不需要再出现一场会打击经济的冲突。财政部未回应置评请求。

Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski convinced Tusk to sign off on the appointments to the central bank board, according to a person familiar with the matter. He argued that while the governor should be held accountable, Poland didn’t need another conflict that would hit the economy, the person said. The Finance Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.

彭博调查的33位经济学家中有29位预测,周三,由10名成员组成的货币政策委员会将连续第八个月把基准利率维持在3.75%不变。该委员会独立于董事会运作,同样由格拉平斯基担任主席。其余四位预测将加息25个基点。央行还将公布最新的经济增长和通胀预测。

On Wednesday, the 10-member Monetary Policy Council, which operates separately from the board and is also chaired by Glapinski, will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% for an eighth straight month, according to 29 out of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The other four forecast a quarter-point hike. The central bank will also publish its latest economic growth and inflation projections.

格拉平斯基是前执政民族主义者的盟友。如果议会决定他应因涉嫌不当行为而接受特别法庭审判,他可能会被停职。他与图斯克的争端至少可以追溯到2023年,当时在议会选举前几周,央行不顾两位数的通胀率意外降息。

Glapinski, an ally of the former ruling nationalists, could be suspended if parliament decides that he should appear before a special tribunal for alleged misconduct. His dispute with Tusk dates back to at least 2023 when, just weeks before a parliamentary election, the central bank unexpectedly cut rates despite double-digit inflation.

外界普遍认为,此次降息是格拉平斯基领导的货币政策委员会为帮助当时的政府淡化通胀压力、争取连任而做出的最后一搏。兹罗提当时大幅下跌。

The reduction was widely seen as a last-ditch effort by the Glapinski-led MPC to try to help the then government secure reelection by downplaying inflationary pressures. The zloty tanked at the time.

图斯克指责格拉平斯基将央行政治化,并誓言如果当选总理就将撤换这位行长。他在赢得2023年选举后并未兑现这一承诺,但随着下一次大选将于明年秋天举行、极右翼在民调中支持率上升,图斯克似乎正在加大力度。

Tusk accused Glapinski of politicizing the central bank and vowed to remove the governor if he was elected prime minister. He didn’t follow through after winning the 2023 vote, but with the next general election due next fall and the far right rising in opinion polls, Tusk appears to be redoubling his efforts.

经过两年的调查,波兰议会一个委员会于10月认定针对格拉平斯基的全部八项指控均成立。这些指控包括:选举前降息违反了央行的政治中立性;货币当局在新冠疫情期间通过购买债券间接为预算赤字融资;以及未经适当授权干预兹罗提市场。

Following a two-year inquiry, a parliamentary committee in October endorsed all eight accusations leveled against Glapinski. These include allegations that the pre-election rate cut breached the central bank’s political neutrality, that the monetary authority indirectly financed the budget deficit through bond purchases during the Covid-19 pandemic, and that it intervened in the zloty market without proper authorization.

格拉平斯基驳回了该调查,称其毫无根据,并警告这可能给国家带来负面后果。

Glapinski has dismissed the probe as baseless and warned it could have negative consequences for the country.

“我要向你们保证,波兰国家银行不会屈从于任何政治压力,”他在上个月的新闻发布会上表示。格拉平斯基将于周四向记者通报情况。

“I want to assure you that the National Bank of Poland won’t succumb to any political pressure,” he said at a news conference last month. Glapinski will brief reporters on Thursday.

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