印度股市在亚洲获得优势，更强的盈利和外国投资者初步回流增强了进一步跑赢的势头。
Indian equities are gaining an edge in Asia as stronger earnings and a nascent return of foreign investors bolster the case for further outperformance.
据花旗集团Inc报道，截至9月季度，约三分之二的BSE 100已公布业绩的公司利润同比增长20%，这是至少五个季度以来最快的增速，也超过了预期。消费品、钢铁和金融业是获盈利上调的主要板块。
Profits at roughly two-thirds of BSE 100 companies that have reported results rose 20% from a year earlier in the September quarter, according to Citigroup Inc. That was the fastest growth in at least five quarters and beat estimates, the brokerage said. Consumer staples, steel and financials were among sectors to see earnings upgrades.
这一改善使印度5.1万亿美元的市值重新进入投资者视野。此前，估值过高、创纪录的外资流出以及人工智能交易敞口有限曾令市场情绪恶化。自10月1日以来，Nifty 50上涨6%，而MSCI亚太指数则下跌7.5%。
The improvement is putting India’s $5.1 trillion market back on investors’ radar after rich valuations, record foreign outflows and limited exposure to the artificial-intelligence trade soured sentiment. Since Oct. 1, the Nifty 50 has risen 6% through Wednesday, even as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 7.5%.
一些策略师认为，若盈利上调范围扩大、海外资金加速流入，跑赢的势头有望延续。
Some strategists see scope for the run of outperformance to extend if earnings upgrades broaden and overseas inflows accelerate.
盈利表现“相当不错”，而估值要求降低之际，使印度成为区域内的“韧性之窗”，渣打银行亚洲策略师Rajat Agarwal表示。
Earnings have been “reasonably good” at a time when valuations have become less demanding, making India a “pocket of resilience” in the region, said Rajat Agarwal, an Asia strategist at Societe Generale SA.
全球基金的卖出也在减少。过去三周，海外投资者一直是本地股票的净买家，今年已净卖出超过300亿美元。
Selling by global funds is also abating. Overseas investors have been net buyers of local shares for the past three weeks, after withdrawing more than $30 billion this year.
资金流加速将助长近期势头，尤其如果对人工智能交易的担忧以及民主党在美国中期选举中强劲的选情，促使资本转向印度等落后市场。“对印度的竞争正在缓解，”Agarwal说。
An acceleration in flows would add to the recent momentum, particularly if concerns over the AI trade, along with the Democrats’ strong US midterm showing, prompt a rotation of capital toward laggards such as India. “There is easing competition for capital for India,” Agarwal said.
不过，风险依然存在。油价高企是印度这样一个高度依赖能源进口的经济体的关键担忧，可能推高通胀、挤压利润空间并拖累卢比，后者上个月一度接近历史低点。除非这些压力缓解，本地股票即便相对其他市场保持韧性，也可能难以支撑反弹。
Still, risks remain. High oil prices are a key concern for an economy that relies heavily on energy imports, as they threaten to stoke inflation, squeeze profit margins and hurt the rupee, which neared a record low last month. Unless those pressures ease, local shares may struggle to sustain the rebound even if they remain relatively resilient versus other markets.
盈利上调的步伐依然疲软。彭博汇编的数据显示，在本轮财报季中，Nifty 50 成分股的 12 个月前向每股收益预估上升了 1.6%，而 MSCI 地区指数的增幅超过 5%。
The pace of earnings upgrades also remains weak. The 12-month forward earnings-per-share estimate for Nifty 50 members rose 1.6% during the ongoing reporting season, compared with more than 5% growth for MSCI’s regional gauge, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
即便如此，盈利改善的面足够广泛，足以支撑对印度市场的看涨理由，因为市场对拥挤的 AI 交易的担忧日益加剧，花旗分析师 Surendra Goyal 和 Vijit Jain 指出。
Even so, the improvement in earnings has been broad enough to boost the bullish case for India as fears mount over the crowded AI trade, according to Citi analysts Surendra Goyal and Vijit Jain.
“全球对 AI 基础设施交易的担忧加剧，这应当会让关注点重新回到印度等市场，这些市场在回调后拥有不错的增长和合理的估值，”他们在研报中写道。
“Concerns on AI infra trade globally have increased, which should bring back the focus on markets like India, with decent growth and reasonable valuations post the correction,” they wrote in a note.