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路透社

民主党扩大对贸易议程的影响力,但关税废除案将撞上特朗普的否决墙Democrats gain influence over trade agenda, but tariff repeals to hit Trump veto wall

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2025年4月2日,美国华盛顿特区,美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克手持图表,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫玫瑰园就关税问题发表讲话。路透社/卡洛斯·巴里亚/资料照片U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick holds a chart as U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

民主党在国会取得压倒性多数,获得了大量的麦克风和聚光灯,以审视特朗普总统的贸易政策,但贸易和法律专家周三表示,这在很大程度上仍然无法让他们推翻特朗普对关税的否决或撤销贸易授权。

Democrats' resounding sweep to a majority in Congress gives them a big microphone and spotlight to scrutinize President Donald Trump's trade policies, but largely leaves them unable to override his veto on any vote to overturn his tariffs or rescind trade authorities, trade and legal experts said on Wednesday.

众议院和参议院的胜利规模为民主党提供了利用对政府机构拨款的权力,向特朗普争取在贸易及其他议题上让步的机会,但贸易顾问们正告客户不要对投票会在短期内改变特朗普的关税政策抱有过高期待。

The scale of the wins in the House of Representatives and the Senate give Democrats a chance to use their authority over government agency funding to seek concessions from Trump on trade an other issues, but trade advisers were telling clients to temper any expectations that the vote would lead to near-term changes in Trump's tariff policies.

“国会的席位变动以及选举结果,非常不可能对总统的贸易议程和现行关税产生显著影响,”安永华盛顿咨询部贸易政策董事总经理布莱克·哈登说。“这是因为行政部门拥有大量由国会授权的贸易权力。”哈登及其他贸易专家表示,民主党将主要聚焦于对贸易委员会的监督调查和听证,这些委员会将由民主党掌控。

"The swing in Congress, the results of the election, are very unlikely to have a significant impact on the president's trade agenda and the tariffs that are in place," said Blake Harden, managing director for trade policy at Ernst & Young's Washington Council office. "This is because there is so much trade authority within the executive branch that's been delegated by Congress." Harden and other trade experts said the major focus for Democrats will be oversight investigations and hearings on trade committees that will come under Democratic control.

民主党表达了撤销特朗普用于征收关税的一些陈旧贸易法的意愿,例如他依据《1930年关税法》第338条(近百年未曾使用)对加拿大进口商品实施的惩罚性关税。

Democrats have expressed a desire to rescind some of the archaic trade laws that Trump has used to impose tariff, such as his punitive duties on Canadian imports under the nearly century-old, never-before-used Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930.

根据路透社最新预测,民主党若获得至少235个席位,将更容易通过此类立法。但在参议院拥有54个席位,并可能因密西西比州和阿拉斯加州的选举结果再增加至两席,民主党仍需获得部分共和党议员的支持,才能突破参议院阻挠议事程序所需的60票门槛。

With at least 235 seats, according to Reuters' latest projections, Democrats would have an easier time passing such legislation. But with 54 Senate seats and up to two more depending on the outcome of races in Mississippi and Alaska, Democrats would still need some Republican votes to overcome the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome the Senate filibuster.

推翻否决所需的票数更为艰巨:需获得67名参议员和290名众议员的支持。

The numbers needed to override a veto are even more daunting: 67 senators and 290 House members.

但格雷塔·佩施表示,鉴于全国广播公司等一些新闻机构估计民主党将在众议院获得258个多数席位,民主党圈子里的一些人正在考虑一种可能性:在某些情况下,可以说服足够多的共和党人帮助推翻否决。佩施曾在拜登政府期间担任美国贸易代表办公室的总法律顾问。

But with some news outlets such as NBC estimating a Democratic House majority of 258 members, some in Democratic circles are contemplating the possibility that under certain circumstances, enough Republicans could be persuaded to help override a veto, said Greta Peisch, who served as general counsel at the US Trade Representative's office during the Biden administration.

“这仍然感觉有些牵强,但这似乎是一个应该提出的问题,”佩施说。她现在是华盛顿威利·赖因律师事务所的贸易合伙人。

"It still feels like a like a stretch, but it seems like a question that should be asked," said Peisch, now a trade partner at Wiley Rein in Washington.

预计将重返负责税收和贸易的众议院筹款委员会主席职位的民主党众议员理查德·尼尔表示,民主党将制定一项“将人民需求放在首位”的议程,但没有透露具体细节。

Democratic Representative Richard Neal, who is expected to return to the chairmanship of the tax- and trade-focused House Ways and Means Committee, said Democrats would craft an agenda "that puts people's needs first" but was short on specifics.

“我们知道,他们已经厌倦了为特朗普不必要的对伊战争买单,也厌倦了每次去收银台或加油站时都要面对推高价格的关税,”尼尔在一份声明中说。“现在是我们卷起袖子、推进政策的时候了,这些政策将控制成本、修复我们的医疗体系、巩固美国人赖以生存的项目,并终结特朗普对工人和家庭的榨取。”

"We know they are tired of paying for Trump’s needless war with Iran and price-hiking tariffs every time they visit the checkout counter or the gas pump," Neal said in a statement. "It's time for us to roll up our sleeves and advance policies that will rein in costs, fix our health care system, shore up the programs Americans rely on, and put an end to Trump’s enrichment off the backs of workers and families."

战略与国际研究中心非常驻贸易顾问威廉·莱因施表示,民主党人在关于特朗普贸易政策处理方式的听证会上将找到大量可供调查的素材,比如大公司对关税豁免决定的影响,以及关税对小企业的负面影响。

Democrats will find plenty of material to investigate in hearings on the handling of Trump's trade policies, such as the influence of big companies on the determination of tariff exemptions the negative effects of tariffs on small businesses, said William Reinsch, non-resident trade adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“不难找到一些小企业,他们会带着关税如何让他们破产的悲惨故事前来作证,”莱因施说。

"It's not hard to find small businesses that will come in with sad stories about how the tariffs are putting them out of business," Reinsch said.

但他表示,尽管民主党人可能专注于消除特朗普关税政策的负面影响,但他们尚未围绕一项更具前瞻性的贸易议程形成共识。

But he said that while Democrats may be focused on undoing negative aspects of Trump's tariff policies, they have yet to coalesce around a more proactive trade agenda.

而以“负担得起”为名撤销特朗普的所有关税,可能并非该党所追求的目标。该党历来支持众多关税以保护关键产业。前总统乔·拜登保留了特朗普对中国商品的全部关税,并在此基础上对电动汽车征收100%关税,对其他战略商品征收高额关税。

And rescinding all of Trump's tariffs in the name of affordability may not be a goal of the party, which has traditionally been supportive of many tariffs to protect key industries. Former President Joe Biden kept all of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods in place and added to them with 100% duties on electric vehicles and high duties on other strategic goods.

选举结果预计不会阻止特朗普在开展公开贸易调查时继续推行新关税,例如针对过剩工业产能的第301条不公平贸易行为调查,这可能导致对中国、印度、越南以及十余个其他主要贸易伙伴的商品征收新关税。

The election result is not expected to deter Trump from pursuing new tariffs under open trade investigations, such as a Section 301 unfair trade practices probe into excess industrial capacity, which could lead to new duties on goods from China, India, Vietnam and more than a dozen other major trading partners.

特朗普数十年来一直倡导关税,并相信关税能够迫使贸易伙伴让步,阿金·甘普(Akin Gump)贸易合伙人、特朗普第一任期期间的前白宫贸易顾问凯莉·安·肖(Kelly Ann Shaw)说。

Trump has advocated for tariffs for decades and believes in their ability to win concessions from trading partners, said Kelly Ann Shaw, a trade partner at Akin Gump and a former White House trade adviser during Trump's first term.

“我认为他不会放慢脚步。他现在正处于打造遗产的阶段,”她说。

"I don't think he's going to let his foot off the gas. He's in legacy-building mode right now," she said.

但随着特朗普任期结束的时间逐渐临近,肖表示尚不清楚贸易伙伴是否仍愿意就让步进行谈判。

But as the end of Trump's term starts to come into view, it's unclear whether trading partners will be as willing to negotiate concessions, Shaw said.

周三,加拿大负责美贸易的贸易部长多米尼克·勒布朗(Dominic LeBlanc)表示,美国选举不会改变渥太华在美贸易谈判中的立场,加方正推进谈判。

On Wednesday, Canada's trade minister for US trade, Dominic LeBlanc said the US election would not change Ottawa's stance on trade negotiations with the US and was pressing ahead with talks.

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