在不断深化的全球科技股抛售潮中，一些全球投资者正将印度视为人工智能（AI）的对冲工具。
Some global investors are pegging India as an AI hedge amid the deepening global tech sell-off.
截至今年10月，外国投资者净卖出超过310亿美元，但在过去四天里已转为净买入，投资额超过23亿美元。
Foreign investors, which net sold more than $31 billion until October of this year, have turned net buyers over the past four days, investing over $2.3 billion.
摩根大通表示，如果全球投资者“中和”其对印度的低配仓位，可能会带来1150亿美元的外国资金流入。
If global investors "neutralize" their underweight positions on India, it could lead to foreign inflows of $115 billion: JPMorgan.
随着投资者试图从人工智能交易的惨烈抛售中避险，印度股市正逐渐成为一个有吸引力的对冲工具，使其成为争夺全球资本的有力竞争者。
The Indian stock market is emerging as an attractive hedge as investors seek refuge from a brutal sell-off in the artificial intelligence trade, making it a strong contender for global capital.
随着对人工智能的情绪恶化，由于高估值、低迷的盈利增长以及缺乏本土人工智能科技巨头，近两年来一直低配印度市场的外国投资者可能会开始回流。
As sentiment around AI sours, foreign investors, who have been underweight on the Indian market for nearly two years due to high valuations, subdued earnings growth and lack of local AI tech champions, could start returning.
摩根大通亚洲主管兼全球新兴市场股票策略联席主管拉吉夫·巴特拉（Rajiv Batra）对CNBC表示：“如果这些外国纯长期投资者群体中和他们在印度股市的低配，这可能会转化为约1150亿美元的潜在净流入。”
"If these foreign long only investor groups were to neutralize their underweight in Indian equities, this could translate into potential net inflows of around $115 billion," Rajiv Batra, head of Asia and co-head of global emerging markets equity strategy at JPMorgan, told CNBC.
他表示，目前有多重因素对该国有利，例如全球油价下跌、美国国债收益率下降、印度公司盈利增长复苏以及全球人工智能交易的平仓。
He said that multiple factors are currently stacked in favor of the country, such as falling global oil prices, a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a recovery in earnings growth of Indian companies and unwinding of global AI trade.
巴特拉说：“对于削减或分散过度拥挤的人工智能交易的投资组合而言，印度已成为一种‘人工智能对冲工具’。”
"India has emerged as an 'AI hedge' for portfolios trimming or diversifying out of crowded AI trades," Batra said.
过去一个月，该国的基准股指 Nifty 50 上涨了近9%，表现优于受人工智能重仓拖累的全球市场——包括美国、日本、韩国和台湾，这些市场因投资者抛售科技股而深陷红盘。
Over the last month, the country's benchmark Nifty 50 has gained nearly 9%, outperforming global markets with heavy AI exposure, including the U.S., Japan, South Korea and Taiwan that are deep in the red as investors ditch tech names.
周五，由于亚洲主要市场跟随隔夜华尔街的抛售行情，印度的基准指数逆势走高。随着日本日经225指数和台湾加权指数进入熊市，韩国综合股价指数加深熊市，且科技股主导的纳斯达克综合指数隔夜进入调整区间，这种分化变得尤为明显。
On Friday, as major Asian markets tracked a sell-off on Wall Street overnight, India's benchmark indexes bucked the trend to trade higher. That divergence becomes stark as Japan's Nikkei 225 and Taiwan's Taiex entered bear territory, while South Korea's Kospi deepened its bear market and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite entered into correction territory overnight.
高盛亚洲太平洋首席股票策略师兼亚洲宏观研究联席主管蒂莫西·莫（Timothy Moe）周五对CNBC的《亚洲财经论坛》（Squawk Box Asia）栏目表示：“印度一直被戏称为反人工智能交易，我们那里的观点是，潜在的经济基本面实际上已经变得更好了。”
"India has been dubbed sort of the anti-AI trade, and our view there is that the underlying economic fundamentals have actually been better," Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist and co-head of Asia macro research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Friday.
他补充说，像印度和澳大利亚这样受人工智能交易影响较小的市场将看到“一些相对优异的表现”，并补充说印度的“国内需求故事”让它在两者之间占据优势。
He added that markets like India and Australia that were less exposed to the AI trade will see "some relative outperformance," adding that India's "domestic demand story" gives it an edge between the two.
命运逆转 与韩国和台湾指数严重集中于人工智能硬件股票不同，印度的基准指数对该领域的暴露很小，而是专注于金融服务、消费、能源、工业和其他服务公司。
Reversal of fortune Unlike Korea and Taiwan, where indexes are heavily concentrated in AI hardware stocks, Indian benchmarks have little exposure to this segment and are instead focused on financial services, consumption, energy, industrials and other services companies.
阿南德·拉蒂财富管理公司（Anand Rathi Wealth）联席首席执行官费罗兹·阿齐兹（Feroze Azeez）对CNBC表示：“由于其规模、流动性以及对人工智能周期相对较低的依赖，印度成为了一个有吸引力的替代选择，”此时正值全球投资者希望削减对人工智能相关股票的风险敞口。
"India becomes an attractive alternative because of its size, liquidity and relatively lower dependence on the AI cycle," at a time when global investors want to cut exposure to AI-related stocks, Feroze Azeez, joint chief executive at Anand Rathi Wealth, told CNBC.
这股围绕印度市场的乐观情绪浪潮正值9月季度企业财报显示出实质性改善之际。
This wave of optimism around the Indian markets comes at a time when corporate earnings for the September quarter have shown material improvement.
根据摩根大通共享的数据，印度上市公司的盈利增长率正追踪超过20%，过去一个月内，2026年的市场共识每股收益预期已被上调0.5%，2027年被上调0.6%。
As per data shared by JPMorgan, earnings growth of listed Indian companies is tracking at more than 20%, and consensus earnings per share estimates have been revised up 0.5% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027 over the past month.
但尽管印度指数在过去一年中表现严重落后——甚至今年迄今主要基准指数仍处于下跌状态，且盈利增长有所改善，但其估值相对于其他新兴市场而言仍然较高。太贵了？
But despite a steep underperformance of Indian indexes over the last year — even for this year so far the key benchmarks are in the red and the improvement in earnings growth, its valuations are still relatively higher than other emerging markets. Too expensive?
不过，全球券商伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）不同意南亚国家应被视为人工智能对冲工具的观点。
Global brokerage Bernstein, however, disagrees that the South Asian country should be viewed as an AI hedge.
该机构在周一的一份报告中表示：“印度越来越被推销为全球人工智能交易的对冲工具。我们不同意。印度既不是人工智能受益者，也不是反人工智能交易。”报告认为印度的估值依然昂贵。
"India is increasingly being pitched as the hedge to the global AI trade. We disagree. India is neither an AI beneficiary nor an anti-AI trade," it said in a report on Monday, arguing that India's valuations remain expensive. India is trading at a rolling 12-month forward price-to-earnings of 18.6 times higher than China's 9.3x and Brazil's 7.9x, the report showed.
报告显示，印度的动态市盈率为18.6倍，高于中国的9.3倍和巴西的7.9倍。与韩国和台湾等人工智能重仓市场相比，它的交易价格也存在溢价。
It is also trading at a premium to AI-heavy markets like South Korea and Taiwan.
马塞勒斯投资管理公司（Marcellus Investment Managers）创始人兼首席投资官索拉布·穆克赫杰（Saurabh Mukherjea）对CNBC表示：“有比投资印度更简单、更便宜的对冲人工智能的方法。”不过他补充说，印度过去两个季度的盈利增长“极为出色”，部分“优质大盘股”的估值处于十年来的最低点。
"There are easier and cheaper ways to hedge AI than investing in India," Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and chief investment officer of Marcellus Investment Managers, told CNBC. He added, though, that India's earnings growth has been "stellar" for the last two quarters and the valuation of some "quality large caps" is at a decade low.
摩根大通的巴特拉表示，自2007年以来，由于其“持久的盈利和国内驱动的增长引擎”，印度的交易价格一直比新兴市场平均高出1.4倍。
India has always traded at a premium to the emerging markets of 1.4 times on average since 2007 due to its "durable earnings and a domestically driven growth engine," JPMorgan's Batra said.
由于盈利增长放缓，该国市场自2024年底以来一直举步维艰，但这种情况在过去两个季度发生了改变。
The country's markets have struggled since late 2024 due to slowing earnings growth, but that has changed over the last two quarters.
邓普顿全球投资公司（Templeton Global Investments）印度股票副总裁兼高级机构投资组合经理哈里·夏姆森德（Hari Shyamsunder）对CNBC表示，印度近期的吸引力被“高油价、疲软的卢比以及其他地方高增长机会的存在”所稀释。
India's near-term appeal was diluted by "high crude, a weak rupee and the availability of high-growth opportunities elsewhere," Hari Shyamsunder, vice president and senior institutional portfolio manager of India equities at Templeton Global Investments, told CNBC.
他指出，Nifty指数目前的交易价格低于其“10年平均动态市盈率”，而 MSCI 印度指数在10月份处于2020年以来的最低动态市盈率。
He pointed out that Nifty now trades below its "10-year average forward P/E," while MSCI India, in October, was at its lowest forward multiple since 2020.
他说：“如果原油价格持续走软，且其他地方的增长面临阻力，情况可能会迅速改变，”并补充说，外国资本流入将取决于未来几个季度持续的盈利增长。
"If crude softens sustainably and growth faces headwinds elsewhere, the picture could change quickly," he said, adding that foreign capital inflows would depend on sustained earnings growth over the next few quarters.