印度消费者通胀在10月可能加速，逼近印度储备银行（RBI）2%至6%目标区间的上限，路透社对经济学家的调查显示，食品价格全面上涨推高了家庭成本。
India's consumer inflation likely accelerated in October, edging closer to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's 2% to 6% target range, as a broad-based rise in food prices pushed up household costs, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
食品价格占印度消费者价格指数（CPI）近40%，近几个月来大幅上涨，原因是分布不均且不足的季风减少了主要家庭主食的供应。
Food prices, which account for nearly 40% of India's consumer price index, have risen sharply in recent months after an uneven and deficient monsoon reduced supplies of key household staples.
自今年初以来，洋葱价格几乎翻倍，而相对波动较小的富含蛋白质的食品，如肉类、牛奶和鸡蛋，也变得更加昂贵。
Onion prices have nearly doubled since the start of the year, while even relatively less volatile protein-rich foods such as meat, milk and eggs have become more expensive.
经济学家表示，全球食品价格上涨加剧了国内压力，特别是推高了进口食用油和其他大宗商品的成本。
Rising global food prices have added to domestic pressures, particularly by increasing the cost of imported edible oils and other commodities, economists said.
根据路透社11月2日至6日对36位经济学家进行的调查，中位数预测显示，年度消费者通胀（INCPIY=ECI）在10月可能升至5.93%，高于9月的5.54%。预测值介于5.50%至6.60%之间，数据将于11月12日公布。
Annual consumer inflation (INCPIY=ECI) likely rose to 5.93% in October from 5.54% in September, according to the median forecast in a November 2-6 Reuters poll of 36 economists. Forecasts for the data, due on November 12, ranged from 5.50% to 6.60%.
接受调查的经济学家中，近半数预计10月通胀将达到或超过6%，即印度储备银行目标区间的上限。
Nearly half of economists polled expect inflation to be at or above 6% in October, the upper end of the RBI's target range.
“较高的食品通胀仍将是推动通胀加速的最大因素，”澳新银行（ANZ）高级经济学家Dhiraj Nim表示。
"Higher food inflation would still be the largest contributing factor to accelerating inflation," said Dhiraj Nim, senior economist at ANZ.
“西南季风降雨分布极不均匀，总体不足。该国许多地区呈现干旱状况……我们可能将长期处于高位通胀期。”调查显示，食品通胀在10月可能升至8.20%，高于9月的7.74%。
"The southwest monsoon outturn was very uneven and deficient overall. In many parts of the country, conditions are drought-like ... we could stay in an elevated inflation period for a long time." Food inflation likely picked up to 8.20% in October from 7.74% in September, the poll showed.
“我们预计肉类、鱼类、油脂、水果、蔬菜和糖将报告两位数通胀，”美国银行证券（BofA Securities）印度及东盟经济研究主管Rahul Bajoria表示。
"We expect meat, fish, oils and fats, fruits, vegetables and sugar to report double-digit inflation," said Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN economic research at BofA Securities.
通胀已连续四个月高于印度储备银行4%的中期目标。经济学家预计未来几个月物价压力将持续，油价仍比美伊战争前的水平高出约40%。
Inflation has remained above the RBI's 4% medium-term target for four consecutive months. Economists expect price pressures to persist in the coming months, with oil prices still about 40% above their levels before the US-Iran war.
印度储备银行（RBI）在10月开启加息周期，预计本财年通胀率将平均达到5.2%，高于此前预测的5.0%。这一最新预测也高于路透社上月民调中位数预测的5.1%。
The RBI, which began its rate-hike cycle in October, expects inflation to average 5.2% in the current financial year, above its previous forecast of 5.0%. The latest projection is also higher than the 5.1% median forecast in a Reuters poll conducted last month.
根据路透社上月民调，在12月的下一次政策会议上，央行普遍预计将连续第二次会议上调回购利率至5.75%。
At its next policy meeting in December, the central bank is widely expected to raise the repo rate for a second straight meeting to 5.75%, according to last month's Reuters poll.
印度联合银行首席经济顾问Kanika Pasricha表示：“印度储备银行继续保持25个基点的渐进式加息步伐可能是审慎之举。”
"It may be prudent for the RBI to continue with its calibrated 25-basis-point rate-hike momentum," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India.
核心通胀剔除了波动较大的食品和燃料价格，被视为衡量潜在需求的更好指标，预计10月将达到4.45%。印度统计局不发布官方核心通胀数据。
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices and is seen as a better gauge of underlying demand, is expected at 4.45% in October. The Indian statistics office does not publish official core inflation data.
另外，调查显示，以批发价格指数为基础的通胀率预计在10月从9月的11.39%加速至12.10%。
Separately, wholesale price index-based inflation likely accelerated to 12.10% in October from 11.39% in September, the survey showed.
如果生产商将更高的投入成本转嫁给消费者，持续高企的批发价格可能会在未来几个月增加零售通胀压力。
Persistently high wholesale prices could add to retail inflation pressures in the coming months if producers pass higher input costs on to consumers.