新德里，11月12日——印度政府周四公布的数据显示，印度10月年度零售通胀率为6.09%，9月为5.54%。路透社此前的一项调查预测零售通胀率为5.93%。
NEW DELHI, Nov 12 - India's annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) stood at 6.09% in October against 5.54% in September, government data showed on Thursday. A Reuters poll had forecast retail inflation at 5.93%.
印度央行的中期通胀目标为4%，容忍区间为上下各2个百分点，即2%至6%。
India's central bank has a medium-term inflation target of 4%, with a tolerance band of 2% to 6% on either side.
“我们预计第三财季整体通胀率为6.1%，这意味着即使再加息一次，实际政策利率仍为负值。某些类别（餐饮和住宿、服装和鞋类）继续表现出能源价格上涨的传导效应，而食品价格压力也在扩大。
"We expect Q3 fiscal headline inflation at 6.1%, implying negative real policy rates, even with another rate hike. Certain categories (restaurants and accommodation, clothing and footwear) continue to exhibit passthrough of higher energy prices, while food price pressures are also broadening.
由于基数不利以及食品和能源价格上涨可能带来的第二轮效应，整体通胀和核心通胀在2027年下半年可能仍将居高不下。强烈而持续的厄尔尼诺现象给即将到来的 Rabi 种植季带来风险，进而给食品通胀带来风险。尽管近期油价回落给印度市场带来了一些安慰，同时外国证券投资大量流入、货币压力减轻，但通胀压力仍将居高不下，整体CPI在未来三个季度的均值可能为5.9%。因此，我们维持对本轮周期共加息75个基点的预测，即2026年12月和2027年2月各加息25个基点。”
“我们正看到通胀压力扩大的明显迹象，能源和原材料成本上涨正传导至核心通胀。
Both headline and core inflation are likely to remain elevated in second half of 2027 due to an unfavorable base as well as potential second round effects of higher food and energy prices. A strong and extended El Nino adds risks for the upcoming rabi season and therefore for food inflation While the recent retreat in oil prices has provided some comfort to Indian markets, with large FPI inflows and reduced pressure on the currency, inflation pressures are set to remain elevated, with headline CPI likely to average 5.9% for the next three quarters. As a result, we retain our call for 75bps of total hikes in this cycle, with 25bps each in Dec-26 and Feb-27" "We are seeing clear signs of broadening inflationary pressures, with higher energy and raw material costs passing through to core inflation.
此外，食品价格通胀正在抬头，水库水位偏低对 Rabi 作物的影响带来进一步的上行风险。
In addition, food price inflation is picking up, with further upside risks stemming from the impact of weak reservoir levels on the rabi crop.
未来几个月，整体通胀率可能仍将高于印度央行6%的容忍上限。在此背景下，我们预计将再加息25个基点，尽管近期原油价格大幅回调以及卢比升值给印度央行提供了一些喘息空间。”
Headline inflation is likely to stay above the RBI’s 6% upper tolerance limit over the next few months. Against this backdrop, we expect another 25 bps rate hike, although the recent sharp correction in crude and INR appreciation provides some breathing room to the RBI."
“黄金和白银价格的回落幅度可能小于预期，这可能导致了核心通胀率略有上升。”
"Gold and silver prices probably moderated less than expected which is likely to have led to slightly higher core inflation.
随着通胀压力出现一些扩大迹象，而增长仍具韧性，我们预计印度央行将在接下来两次会议上再加息50个基点，使终端利率达到6%。
With some signs of broadening if inflation pressures amid resilient growth, we expect another 50bps of rate hikes from the RBI over the next two meetings taking the terminal rate to 6%."
“10月CPI通胀率为6.09%，反映出通胀压力持续扩大以及全球冲击的传导，同时服装价格出现季节性上涨、汽车价格上升。预计直到2027年6月，通胀率都将高于6%。”
"Oct CPI inflation at 6.09% reflected the continued broadening of inflationary pressures and the transmission of global shocks, amid seasonal increases in clothing prices and higher car prices. Inflation is likely to print above 6% until Jun’27."
“CPI通胀符合我们的预期，食品通胀走强，其传导效应在各领域均有明显体现。尽管在西亚和平预期下原油价格有所回落，但由于此前加息的传导仍在继续，通胀预计不会立即降温。我们预计印度央行将在未来6至9个月内再加息50个基点。”
"CPI inflation came in line with our expectations as food inflation firmed and its pass-through was evident across the board. Notwithstanding the cooling of crude oil prices amid expectations of peace in West Asia, inflation is expected to unlikely cool off immediately as pass- through of previous hikes continues. We expect RBI to hike rates by another 50 bps over next 6 to 9 months."
“印度10月整体通胀率突破印度央行容忍区间的上限，创下两年新高，食品驱动的急剧上涨伴随有价格压力环比扩大的迹象。由于整体通胀尚未见顶，加之不利的基数效应，央行季度预测可能被上调。这些数据强化了我们对12月将连续第二次加息的预期。”
"India's headline inflation tested past the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band in Oct to a two year high, with a sharp food driven upmove accompanied by signs of broadening out of price pressures on sequential basis. With headline inflation yet to peak, compounded by an unfavourable base effect, the central bank's quarterly projection is likely to be revised higher. The data reinforces our expectation of a second successive rate hike in December."
“10月通胀率两年来首次突破6%大关，但峰值可能仍在前方。食品价格压力已大幅上升，并将继续加剧；与此同时，能源成本上升继续传导至核心商品和服务，尽管炼油利润率上升带动石油公司利润走强，加之近期原油价格下跌，降低了调整汽油和柴油价格的紧迫性。
"Inflation surpassed the 6% mark for the first time in two years in October, but the peak likely still lies ahead. Food price pressures have surged and will continue intensifying while higher energy costs continue feeding through to core goods and services, even if strengthening oil-company profits thanks to higher refining margins and the recent decline in crude prices reduce the urgency of an adjustment to petrol and diesel prices.
核心价格压力扩大以及通胀预期高企，应会促使印度央行在12月和2月再各加息25个基点，但消费需求走软、进而企业定价能力减弱，应有助于此后遏制通胀。”
Broadening core price pressures and elevated inflation expectations should prompt two more 25bps RBI hikes in December and February, but softening consumer demand and thus weakening firm pricing power should help contain inflation thereafter."