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以色列大选后,谁将率先获得组阁机会?After Israel’s Election, Who Will Get the First Chance to Form a Government?

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以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将委托一位候选人尝试组建政府。此前,在一场没有明确结果的选举之后,他与政党领导人和官员进行了为期两天的会谈。

President Isaac Herzog is set to task a candidate with trying to form a government, following two days of talks with party leaders and officials after an inconclusive election.

以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格表示,他计划在周日选定由哪位政党领导人获得在上月选举后率先组建政府的机会,因为那场选举没有产生明确的赢家。

President Isaac Herzog of Israel said he planned to choose on Sunday which party leader will get the first opportunity to form a government after elections last month produced no clear winner.

赫尔佐格本周与每个赢得足够选票进入120席议会的政党代表举行了会谈。各政党推荐了他们支持组建政府的候选人。总统的正式权力有限,理应把组建政府的授权交给他认为最有可能成功组阁的人。

Mr. Herzog held talks this week with representatives of each of the parties that won enough votes to enter the 120-seat Parliament. The parties recommended the candidate that they support to form a government. The president, who has few formal powers, is supposed to give a mandate to the person that he believes has the best chance of forming a government.

由前军方总参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派阵营获得最多政党的推荐,使他在新一届议会(即以色列议会)中获得67名议员的支持。分析人士说,这意味着赫尔佐格很可能把尝试组建政府的授权交给他。

The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot a former military chief of staff, was endorsed by the most parties, giving him the support of 67 members of the new Parliament, or Knesset. That means Mr. Herzog is likely to give him the mandate to try and create a government, analysts say.

总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟排名第二,推荐他的各政党在议会中给了他46个席位。极端正统派政党、内塔尼亚胡的长期盟友联合托拉犹太教党未推荐任何人。

The coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finished second, with the parties that recommended him giving him 46 seats in the legislature. United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox party and longtime ally of Mr. Netanyahu, declined to endorse anyone.

赫尔佐格周四表示,谁能组建政府并非“完全清楚”。他说,他将与部分政党领导人进行“个人对话”,“翻遍每一块石头”,力图促成“为以色列人民建立稳定而良好的政府”。政党之间的谈判可能导致若干种可能的联盟,也可能一种都无法形成,若如此则可能举行新的选举。

On Thursday, Mr. Herzog said it was not “totally clear” who could form a government. He said he would hold “personal conversations” with some of the parties’ leaders and “turn over every rock” in an attempt to bring about the establishment of “stable and good government for the people in Israel.”Negotiations between the parties could lead to a number of potential coalitions or none at all, in which case new elections could be held.

如果赫尔佐格先生选择艾森科特先生,这位反对党领袖很可能需要来自其联盟之外、非犹太主导政党的议员支持,才能获得足够的票数。他可以寻求阿拉伯裔或极端正统派议会成员的支持,也可以接触内塔尼亚胡先生右翼利库德集团的成员。

If Mr. Herzog selects Mr. Eisenkot, the opposition leader will likely need the backing of lawmakers from outside the Jewish-led parties in his coalition to secure enough votes. He could turn to Arab or ultra-Orthodox members of Parliament, or he could reach out to members of Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party.

如果内塔尼亚胡先生获得组阁授权,他很可能需要争取一些反对党议员的支持。选举结果原本预计将难分胜负,但也出现了一些意外。

If Mr. Netanyahu receives the mandate, he would likely need to win over some opposition lawmakers. The election results had been expected to be inconclusive, but there were some surprises.

利库德集团的表现优于许多选前民调,成为议会第一大党。尽管如此,其赢得的席位少于2022年上次大选,该党及其盟友未能获得足以确保绝对多数的61个席位。

Likud outperformed many pre-election opinion polls to become the biggest party in Parliament. Still, it won fewer seats than in the last elections in 2022 and the party and its allies did not get enough to secure an outright majority of 61 seats.

以色列阿拉伯裔政党支持者的投票率异常高,推动这些政党取得了创纪录的成绩。

Turnout by supporters of Israel’s Arab parties was extraordinarily high, propelling the parties to a record result.

以色列的议会制通常要求各党找到足够的共同点,在以色列120席的议会中组建多数派。

Israel’s parliamentary system typically requires parties to find enough common ground to assemble a majority in Israel’s 120-seat Parliament.

这一制度产生了一些意想不到的联盟,有时也会导致政府不稳定、短命:2019年至2022年间,以色列举行了五次大选。

The system has produced some unlikely alliances and, on occasion, unstable, short-lived governments: From 2019 to 2022, five elections were held in Israel.

在未来几天里,各党很可能将展开激烈谈判,最终可能组建政府,也可能陷入僵局,从而不能排除再次大选的可能性。以下是各党可能为组建政府而结盟的一些情形。

In the coming days, the parties likely will enter into intense negotiations that could end in the establishment of a government or deadlock, making another election impossible to rule out. Here are some possible outcomes for how the parties may align to form a government.

情形A:犹太-阿拉伯联盟 对内塔尼亚胡先生的对手而言,获得多数席位可能取决于阿拉伯裔政党的支持。但这在政治上对艾森科特先生将是一个挑战。

Scenario A Jewish-Arab alliance For Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents, securing a majority could depend on support from Arab parties. But that would be challenging politically for Mr. Eisenkot.

如果艾森科特先生同时与两个阿拉伯裔政党——由三个阿拉伯裔派别组成的“联合名单”,以及务实的伊斯兰教派别“拉姆党”合作,他将在议会中拥有显著多数。

If Mr. Eisenkot were to work with both Arab parties — the Joint List, an alliance of three Arab-led factions, and Raam, a pragmatic Islamist party — he would have a significant majority in Parliament.

艾森科特拒绝与不支持以色列犹太国家性质、或不支持击败哈马斯的政党结盟。哈马斯是加沙地带的武装组织,发动了2023年10月7日对以色列的袭击。艾森科特的许多选民可能会认为,若寻求与阿拉伯政党合作,将违背竞选承诺。在随时可能再次大选的政治格局下,这对艾森科特可能造成损害。

Mr. Eisenkot has rejected alliances with parties that do not support Israel’s Jewish character or the defeat of Hamas, the militant group in Gaza that led the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks on the country. Many of Mr. Eisenkot’s voters could view an effort to partner with the Arab parties as breaking a campaign promise. That would be a potentially damaging for Mr. Eisenkot in a political landscape in which another election could be imminent.

艾森科特也可以组建少数派政府,即不让阿拉伯议员进入联合政府,但争取他们同意在外部支持政府。“联合名单”表示不会加入执政联盟,但提议协助犹太人主导的反对党将内塔尼亚胡赶下台,并支撑由艾森科特领导的政府。但这种安排能否持久尚不清楚。

Mr. Eisenkot also could form a minority government by leaving Arab lawmakers out of the coalition but securing their agreement to support it. The Joint List has said it would not join a governing coalition, but it has proposed to help the Jewish-led opposition parties to oust Mr. Netanyahu from office and prop up an Eisenkot-led government. But it is unclear how sustainable such an arrangement would be.

团结政府 由内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特共同领导的团结政府提供了另一条通往明确多数席位的道路。但这种联盟对两位领导人来说都可能令人不安。

A unity government A unity government led by Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Eisenkot offers another path to a clear majority. But such an alliance could prove uneasy for both leaders.

艾森科特的竞选活动聚焦于让内塔尼亚胡下台的紧迫性,他曾称内塔尼亚胡不适合担任总理。内塔尼亚胡可能不愿与劲敌分享权力,或授予其重要职权。

Mr. Eisenkot’s campaign focused on the urgent need to unseat Mr. Netanyahu, whom he has called unfit to serve as prime minister. Mr. Netanyahu may not be keen to share power, or delegate significant authority, to his fierce rival.

一种可能的团结政府可以将利库德集团、艾森科特的“雅沙尔”党、“共同”党——由两位前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特和亚伊尔·拉皮德组成的联盟——以及“以色列我们的家园”党汇聚在一起。“以色列我们的家园”党是由阿维格多·利伯曼领导的右翼政党,他已与内塔尼亚胡决裂,并成为对手。

One possible unity government could bring together the Likud party; Mr. Eisenkot’s Yashar party; Together, an alliance between two former prime ministers, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid; and Yisrael Beiteinu, a right-wing party led by Avigdor Liberman, who broke with Mr. Netanyahu and has since been a rival.

最终结果显示,这样的集团拥有66个席位,拥有明确的执政多数,尽管可能并不稳固。

Final results gave such a bloc 66 seats, a clear governing majority, if a shaky one.

极端正统派支持的政府 艾森科特可以寻求两个极端正统派政党的支持,它们长期以来是内塔尼亚胡的盟友,但对内塔尼亚胡有怨气。考虑到反对派长期批评极端正统派男性享有兵役豁免,这可能很难实现。

An ultra-Orthodox-backed government Mr. Eisenkot could seek the support of the two ultra-Orthodox parties, which are longtime allies of Mr. Netanyahu but have grievances against him. That might prove difficult, given that the opposition has long criticized military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men.

但联合妥拉犹太教决定不推荐内塔尼亚胡,这可能表明它希望与艾森科特合作组建政府,并在征召极端正统派公民入伍的立法上达成妥协。

But United Torah Judaism’s decision not to recommend Mr. Netanyahu could be a sign that it wants to work with Mr. Eisenkot to form a government and reach a compromise on legislation to conscript ultra-Orthodox citizens into the military.

利伯曼长期以来一直拒绝与极端正统派议员同处一个政府。然而在周五,他表示自己愿意与他们合作,称在征兵问题上保持灵活是“被允许且被期望的”。

Mr. Liberman has long refused to sit in a government with ultra-Orthodox lawmakers. On Friday, however, he suggested he was open to working with them, saying it was “permitted and desired” to be flexible on the issue of conscription.

“这对我来说很痛苦,我知道对许多其他人来说也很痛苦,”他在社交媒体上说。“但鉴于我们今天所面对的挑战,以色列国和以色列人民的国家利益必须高于一切其他考量。”塞缪尔·格拉纳多斯和乔什·霍尔德对报道有贡献。

“This is painful for me, and I know it’s painful for many others,” he said on social media. “But in light of the challenges we’re dealing with today, the national interest of the state of Israel and the people of Israel must stand above all other considerations.”Samuel Granados and Josh Holder contributed reporting.

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