中国乘用车市场信息联席会（乘联会）表示，随着国际市场采取措施保护本地产业，中国汽车出口增速预计将在今年激增后放缓至2027年的10%左右。
Growth in Chinese car exports will probably slow down to 10% in 2027 after this year’s surge as international markets take steps to protect their local industries, according to the country’s Passenger Car Association.
乘联会秘书长崔东树周一在简报会上说：“出口将从今年见到的超高速增长，回落到明年的中高速增长。”他将预期放缓归咎于关键市场推出更高关税或进口配额。根据乘联会数据，今年前10个月海外出货量增长了75%。
“Exports will fall from the supercharged growth seen this year to a medium to fast pace next year,” PCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu said in a briefing on Monday. He blamed the expected slowdown on key markets introducing higher tariffs or import quotas. Overseas shipments grew by 75% in the first 10 months of this year, according to PCA data.
这一预测发布之际，中国车企正日益面临海外市场的反制——欧盟、泰国和巴西的监管机构正推出更高关税或配额，以限制中国出口的涌入。出口放缓将削弱中国车企原本依靠出口形成的缓冲，这些车企一直在为国内车市销量暴跌而苦恼。
The forecast comes as Chinese automakers increasingly face backlash from overseas markets — regulators in the European Union, Thailand and Brazil are introducing higher tariffs or quotas to limit the flood of Chinese exports. An export slowdown would cut into the buffer it created for Chinese carmakers, which have been struggling with plunging car sales at home.
不过，崔东树表示，中东需求依然强劲，明年很可能驱动大部分增长。
Still, demand from the Middle East continues to be strong and will probably drive much of the growth next year, Cui said.
根据乘联会数据，今年前10个月插电混动和增程式电动汽车出口激增168%，达到177万辆。纯电动汽车海外出货量也有所上升，但增速较慢，为124%。
Exports of plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs surged 168% in the first 10 months of this year, reaching 1.77 million units. Overseas shipments of all-electric vehicles rose but at a slower pace of 124%, according to data from PCA.
在国内市场，10月乘用车交付量暴跌27%至164万辆，因购车补贴退坡和经济放缓导致购车需求迟迟未能恢复。尽管电动汽车和混动车需求也受到冲击，但其在新车销售中的占比持续上升，上月达到67%，根据乘联会数据。
In China, deliveries of passenger vehicles in October plunged 27% to 1.64 million units as car purchases never recovered from the scaling back of subsidies and a slowing economy. Although demand for electric vehicles and hybrids have also been hit, their portion of new car sales continues to rise, reaching 67% last month, according to PCA data.