年度气候收官会议周一在土耳其城市安塔利亚开幕，世界气象组织（WMO）在开幕当天发布的年度《全球气候状况报告》再次发出严峻警示：气候形势持续恶化。
The annual year-ending climate meeting opened in the Turkish city of Antalya on Monday with another sobering reminder from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) about the steadily worsening climate situation.
世界气象组织在COP31气候大会开幕日发布的报告指出，2026年可能成为有记录以来最暖年份之一，几乎可以肯定位列前四最暖年份之中。
In its annual State of the Climate Report, released on the opening day of the COP31 climate meeting, the WMO said 2026 could end up as one of the warmest ever, almost certainly among the top four warmest years.
报告称，今年1月至9月全球平均气温比工业化前时期（1850-1900年平均值）高出1.47摄氏度。这一数值高于2025年和2023年的全年平均值，仅略低于有记录以来最暖年份2024年。
The average global temperature between January and September this year was 1.47 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times (the average of the 1850-1900 period), the WMO report said. It is higher than the full-year averages in 2025 and 2023, and only slightly lower than 2024, which remains the warmest year on record.
考虑到当前盛行的厄尔尼诺现象对全球普遍具有升温影响，今年剩余三个月不大可能拉低目前的平均值。因此，2026年极有可能成为第二暖年份。
The remaining three months of this year are unlikely to bring down the average so far, considering the prevailing El Niño conditions, which have a general warming impact on the planet. Thus, it is very likely that 2026 ends up as the second warmest year.
作为全球气候变化最权威评估之一的《全球气候状况报告》还披露，推动全球气温上升的主要因素——温室气体排放仍在增加，并于2025年达到新的纪录水平。基准监测站的测量数据显示，2026年排放量仍在持续上升。即使经过三十年的全球讨论、国际法律安排和资源配置，世界甚至尚未开始减少排放。
The State of the Climate Report, considered one of the most authoritative assessments of global climate change, also revealed that greenhouse gas emissions—the main driver of rising global temperatures—were still going up and reached new record levels in 2025. Measurements from benchmark monitoring stations indicate a continued increase in 2026 as well. Even after three decades of global discussions, international legal arrangements, and resource allocation, the world has not even begun reducing its emissions.
对于在安塔利亚参加为期两周会议的气候谈判代表而言，这并非新信息。多年来，他们收到的每一次气候评估都传递着类似信息，指向形势持续恶化。但至少在短期内，谈判代表们要想在任何显著程度上改变这一局面，如今比以往任何时候都更加无力。一场熟悉的僵局——对更多资金的需求COP31是多年来最低调的气候大会之一。预计不会有重大决定或成果产生。大多数讨论可能集中在寻找加速落实承诺气候行动的途径。但这同样陷入了一个熟悉的僵局——对更多资金的需求。
For the climate negotiators assembled in Antalya for the two-week conference, this is no new information. They have been getting similar messages for several years now, with every climate assessment pointing to the steadily worsening situation. But the negotiators are now more helpless than ever in changing the situation in any significant manner in the short term, at least. A familiar stalemate—the need for more money COP31 is one of the most low-key climate conferences in years. No major decisions or outcomes are expected. Most discussions are likely to focus on finding ways to speed up the implementation of promised climate actions. But that too runs into a familiar stalemate—the need for more money.
尼泊尔最近的案例显示了所需资源与全球整体能够提供的资源之间的巨大鸿沟：在8月毁灭性山洪暴发后，尼泊尔从“损失与损害基金”获得承诺2000万美元，而恢复与重建至少需要20亿美元。
The recent case of Nepal, which has been promised $20 million from the Loss and Damage Fund against a requirement of at least $2 billion for recovery and reconstruction following the devastating flash floods in August, shows the huge gap between what is required and what the world as a whole can provide to meet the challenge.
气候行动方面也存在类似的鸿沟。到2030年，世界必须在2019年水平基础上集体减少至少43%的温室气体排放，才能给自己留下一线希望，将全球气温升幅控制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度以内。但在当前气候行动速度下，即使实现2%的减排似乎也无望。正如最新的《气候状况报告》指出的那样，排放量甚至尚未开始下降，它们仍在上升。
A similar gap exists in climate action as well. The world has to collectively reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 43 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030 to give itself the slimmest chance of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial times. But at the current rate of climate action, even a 2 per cent reduction seems unlikely. As the latest State of the Climate Report points out, emissions have not even begun to reduce. They are still rising.
这就是为什么联合国环境规划署（UNEP）今年早些时候发布的两份报告得出结论，认为1.5摄氏度目标现已牢牢地变得遥不可及。这是任何科学机构作出的首次此类评估。直到现在，所有气候评估都提供了一个实现《巴黎协定》设定的1.5摄氏度目标的狭窄机会窗口，无论多么不切实际。
That’s why two reports by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) earlier this year concluded that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target had now gone firmly out of reach. This was the first such assessment by any scientific body. Until now, all climate assessments offered a narrow window of opportunity, however unrealistic, of meeting the 1.5 degrees Celsius target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
联合国气候变化框架公约执行秘书西蒙·斯蒂尔表示，COP31需要“超级充电”全球应对气候变化的努力，但他对大会能取得的成果也保持现实态度。
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of UN Climate Change, said COP31 needed to “supercharge” global efforts to tackle climate change, but he was also realistic about what it could deliver.
“任何COP都不是灵丹妙药。没有任何单一会议能弥合科学与现实之间的鸿沟。我们必须面对现实世界，而非我们希望中的世界。每一届最近的COP都取得了进展。这一届也必须如此，”他说。提高电力在全球能源消费中的占比同以往所有的《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议（COP）主办国一样，土耳其决定发起一些自愿倡议，为更广泛的气候行动创造势头。其中最重要的倡议旨在到2035年，将电力在全球能源消费中的占比从目前的约20%提高到至少30%。
“No COP is a silver bullet. No single conference can bridge the chasm between the science and reality. We must deal with the world as it is, not as we might wish it to be. Every recent COP has delivered strides forward. This one must too,” he said. Boosting electricity’s share of global energy use Like all previous COP hosts, Turkey decided to launch a few voluntary initiatives to create momentum for greater climate action. The most important initiative seeks to increase the share of electricity in global energy consumption to at least 30 per cent by 2035 from the current levels of about 20 per cent.
这或许并不十分显眼，但即便在今天，电力也仅满足了全球一小部分能源需求。大多数能源消费都以非电力形式进行，例如石油和天然气。
It is not very evident, but electricity serves only a small fraction of the world’s energy needs even today. Most of the energy consumption happens in non-electric forms, like oil and gas.
但更新、更清洁的电力来源（如太阳能、风能或核能）只能以电力的形式被消费。这意味着目前出于各种原因使用石油、天然气或其他非电力形式能源的所有工序都需要实现电气化。
But newer and cleaner sources of electricity, like solar, wind or nuclear, can be consumed only in the form of electricity. That means all processes that currently use oil, gas or other non-electric forms of energy for a variety of reasons need to get electrified.
土耳其已提议建立一个全球联盟，以努力实现至少30%的电气化率。但这是一项自愿倡议，各国可以根据自己的意愿选择加入。这不是一项将从谈判形式的COP进程中产生决议。
Turkey has proposed a global coalition to try to achieve at least 30 per cent electrification. But this is a voluntary initiative that countries can choose to join if they wish to. This is not a decision that will come out of the negotiated COP process.