前军方总参谋长加迪·艾森科特已获授权组建新的以色列政府，其首要任务显而易见：兑现上个月大选中大多数选民的意愿，终结该国现代史上最极端、破坏性最大的政府。文/马克·钱皮恩理论上，这本不该是一场难以取胜的较量。愿意与总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡合作的政党在议会（克内塞特）120个席位中仅占46席，而反对他的政党则赢得了67席。
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has been asked to form a new Israeli government and his priority should be clear. It is to give his fellow citizens what a majority voted for in last month’s election: the removal of the most extreme and destructive government in the nation’s modern history. By Marc Champion This should, in theory, be no contest. Parties that won 46 of the Knesset’s 120 seats have said they’re willing to work with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while parties opposed to him won 67.
然而，艾森科特领导的“变革阵营”仅拥有48个席位，这意味着他必须组建联合政府才能执政——这一过程在任何地方都鲜少一帆风顺，更遑论在以色列错综复杂的政治版图中。这将是一项艰巨任务，但必须设法使其奏效。
Yet Eisenkot’s Change Bloc has only 48 seats, meaning he needs to form a coalition to rule — a process that rarely runs smoothly anywhere, let alone in the complex politics of Israel. This will be hard, but it must be made to work.
艾森科特最长有六周时间凑齐多数席位，但他绝不能拖延那么久。他应当尽快组建少数派政府，依靠以色列阿拉伯裔政党在赢得创纪录的19个议席后提出的无附加条件支持。随后，他可以从容地商谈组建一个更稳固的多数派联盟。
Eisenkot now has as long as six weeks to assemble a majority, but he cannot afford to take them. He should instead form a minority government as swiftly as possible, relying on the no-strings-attached offer of support made by Israel’s ethnically Arab parties after they won a record 19 Knesset seats. He can then negotiate a more permanent majority at his leisure.
这或许已在他的议程上。艾森科特表示，他计划在组建所谓的“国家紧急政府”过程中采取“非传统的政治步骤”。为何速度如此关键？内塔尼亚胡已表明不惜一切代价留任，甚至动用以色列国内情报机构辛贝特（Shin Bet），以站不住脚的指控调查阿拉伯裔政党涉嫌“窃取”大选。以色列检察长称，提供的证据显然极其薄弱，甚至“远远无法”影响选举结果。
This may be on his agenda. Eisenkot has said he plans to take “unconventional political steps” in forming what he called an “national emergency government.”Why is speed so essential? Netanyahu has already shown he is willing to do anything to stay in power, including using Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet to investigate threadbare allegations that Arab parties “stole” the election. The evidence provided was apparently so flimsy Israel’s attorney general said it could not “even remotely” have impacted the vote’s outcome.
尽管选举舞弊的伎俩失败了，但只要内塔尼亚胡作为看守总理掌握着权力杠杆，就会有其他伎俩。他竭力将与阿拉伯主导的拉姆党和联合名单的任何合作污名化，以至于这种合作在政治上变得不可能，因为他知道这是将他赶下台的最短路径。选举前，他的联盟成员曾主导一项尝试，试图完全阻止阿拉伯政党参选，指控它们反对以色列国。最高法院同样驳回了这一指控，认定其毫无根据。
While the election-fraud ploy failed, there will be others so long as Netanyahu controls the levers of power as caretaker prime minister. He has been doing his best to stigmatize any cooperation with Arab-led Ra’am and Joint List to the point that it becomes politically impossible, because he knows they are the shortest route to his ouster. Before the election, his coalition members led an attempt to block Arab parties from taking part at all, alleging that they opposed the state of Israel. The Supreme Court dismissed that charge as baseless, too.
周六，在试图宣布选举无效失败后，内塔尼亚胡呼吁组建团结政府（毫无疑问由他自己担任总理），警告称依靠阿拉伯选票组建的内阁将等同于“民族自杀”，会导致伊斯兰主义者从内部拆毁国家，引发流血和街头混乱。这是煽动性的胡说八道。就在几年前拉姆党参与政府时，上述情况均未发生。
On Saturday, having failed to void the election, Netanyahu has called for a unity government (no doubt with himself as prime minister), warning that a cabinet reliant on Arab votes would amount to “national suicide,” leading to bloodshed and mayhem in the streets as Islamists tore down the state from within. This is inflammatory nonsense. None of the above happened when Ra’am sat in government just a few years ago.
内塔尼亚胡在呼吁民族团结的同时，将20%的人口视为敌人，他似乎未察觉其中的讽刺意味。他曾表示，阿拉伯人不是完全的公民，因为他们生活在一个犹太国家——对于任何民主国家的领导人来说，这是一番非同寻常的言论。但以色列大多数选民投票反对的不是阿拉伯人，而是他。让他和他的联盟伙伴留任，以防止撤销他们自2022年上台以来造成的破坏，这种共存局面不会给以色列带来良好的结果。
Netanyahu did not see the irony in calling for national unity while dismissing 20% of his population as the enemy. He has said before that Arabs are not full citizens, because they live in a Jewish state — an extraordinary statement for the leader of any democracy to make. But the majority of Israel’s electorate did not vote against Arabs, they voted against him. A cohabitation in which he and his coalition partners stay on to prevent the undoing of damage wrought since they took office in 2022 would not be a good outcome for Israel.
一旦掌权，艾森科特可以组建多数派联盟，但这需要时间——尤其是因为他提出的入阁原则。其中一条是接受普遍征兵制，这使得无法招募那些准备与内塔尼亚胡决裂的极端正统派犹太政党；保留他们（荒谬的）免除兵役特权是这些政党的头号诉求。同样，艾森科特要求候选人宣布哈马斯为恐怖组织并接受以色列犹太国家的特定性质，这排除了阿拉伯政党的参与。
Once in power, Eisenkot can negotiate a majority, but it will take time — not least because of the principles he has declared as the price of entry to his government. One is the acceptance of universal conscription, which makes it impossible to recruit from the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties that are ready to break with Netanyahu; keeping their (outrageous) exemptions from military service is their number one issue. Similarly, Eisenkot’s requirement that candidates declare Hamas a terrorist organization and accept Israel’s specifically Jewish nature rules out Arab participation.
在10月7日之后，质疑为何有人会拒绝称哈马斯为恐怖组织是合理的。拉阿姆党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯给出了两个拒绝理由。第一，这会招致该组织的报复，危及他及其家人——这无疑是事实。第二是这会疏远更广泛的巴勒斯坦人，包括他自己的选民。大多数人可能不赞同哈马斯，但阿拉伯人倾向于将“恐怖组织”标签视为一种工具，其主要目的是为以色列在以巴长期暴力循环中的任何责任开脱。
It’s reasonable to ask why anybody would balk at calling Hamas terrorists after Oct. 7. Ra’am head Mansour Abas has given two reasons for the refusal. First, that it would spark retribution from the group, endangering him and his family — which is no doubt true. The second was that it would alienate Palestinians more broadly, including his own voters. Most may not approve of Hamas, but Arabs tend to see the terrorist label as a tool whose primary goal to absolve Israel of any responsibility for the long cycle of Israeli-Palestinian violence.
这种犹豫并不罕见。新芬党在进入北爱尔兰议会前，并未被要求宣布爱尔兰共和军为恐怖组织；只需放弃暴力，而阿拉伯政党已经这样做了。
This kind of hesitation is not unusual. Sinn Fein wasn’t required to declare the Irish Republican Army a terrorist organization before it sat in Northern Ireland’s parliament; it only had to renounce violence, which the Arab parties do.
艾森科特将不得不在一个或多个原则上妥协才能组建政府。支持向极端正统派政党让步的一个理由是，他自己的四党联盟中的一位领导人——右翼但反内塔尼亚胡的阿维格多·利伯曼——表示愿意在该问题上妥协，但排除了加入包含阿拉伯政党的政府，甚至排除依靠其支持的少数派政府。
Eisenkot will need to breach one or more of his principles to form a government. One argument in favor of giving in to the ultra-Orthodox parties is that a leader in his own four-party coalition — the right-wing, yet anti-Netanyahu Avigdor Lieberman — has said he is willing to bend on that issue, but has ruled out joining a government that includes Arab parties, or even a minority one that relies on their support.
然而，这并非以色列选民所希望的。对超正统（哈雷迪）犹太人实行单独征兵法，而对其他人实行另一套法律的不公，使其成为内塔尼亚胡最不受欢迎的政策之一。相较之下，依赖阿拉伯选票的理由更为充分。这是以色列民主的正确道路——所有选票都应计入——也是朝以巴冲突降级的更长进程的正确第一步。这也是埃森科特联盟中大多数选民所支持的。
Yet this is not what Israel’s voters wanted. The injustice of having one law on conscription for ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, Jews and one for everyone else has made it one of Netanyahu’s most unpopular policies. The case for relying on Arab votes, by contrast, is strong. It is the right course for Israeli democracy — all votes should count — and the correct first step in a much longer process toward de-escalation between Israelis and Palestinians. It’s also what most voters in Eisenkot’s coalition support.
在希伯来大学协定中心于选举后两天进行的一项针对自称投票给变革阵线的人的民调中，59%的受访者表示更倾向于与阿拉伯政党组建政府。只有26%的人表示愿意与内塔尼亚胡进行权力共享，10%的人支持重新选举，只有5%的人希望邀请哈雷迪党派。
In a poll of people who said they voted for Change Bloc, conducted two days after the election by the Hebrew University’s Accord Center, 59% of respondents said they would prefer a government formed with Arab parties. Only 26% said they’d like a power-sharing arrangement with Netanyahu, while 10% favored new elections and just 5% wanted to invite the Haredi parties.
利伯曼了解其中的利害——这正是他站在反对阵线的原因。内塔尼亚胡执政下，以色列正走向国内冲突加剧和国际孤立的道路，最终可能难以控制。以色列及更广泛地区所需要的是耶路撒冷的政府，能够对导致10月7日的极端安全失误、国家支持的定居者暴力进行独立调查，恢复对民主制度的信任，并开始净化以色列、巴勒斯坦及更广泛地区之间的关系。
Lieberman knows the stakes — they are the reason he is in opposition. Under Netanyahu, Israel is on a path to domestic conflagration and international isolation that it may not ultimately be able to control. What it and the wider region need is a government in Jerusalem that will allow an independent inquiry into the extraordinary security failures that enabled Oct. 7, end state-sponsored settler violence, restore trust in democratic institutions and begin to detoxify relations between Israel, the Palestinians and the wider region.
在国内外，内塔尼亚胡的政府已成为升级的机器。只要他和其弥赛亚式的联盟成员继续执政，这一点就不会改变。以色列选民已经支持变革，但只有接受该国的阿拉伯族裔为拥有完整公民权、其选票同样重要的全体公民，变革才能实现。
At home and abroad Netanyahu’s government has become an escalation machine. That will not change so long as he and his messianic coalition members are running the country. Israel’s voters have now endorsed change, but it can only be achieved by accepting the nation’s ethnic Arabs as full citizens whose votes also matter.